Racehorse TALK

The only thing I know about time is that even time is 15 seconds per furlong but we probably shouldn't go there.

Wouldn't the 86 rating over 1200m be relative to some type of par performance over 1200m?

Wouldn't an 86 rating over 1600m also be relative to some type of par performance over that distance?

Wouldn't those 86 ratings be comparatively similar to their relevant par times but wouldn't the 86 over the 1600m be a slower time per 200m than the 86 over the 1200m because the average speed of the pars would decrease as the race distances got longer?

Wouldn't a horse that was best over 1600m have a higher speed rating over 1600m because it's performances were optimal against par at that distance but have a lower 1200m rating because it's relative performance against par was inferior at that distance even though the actual Km/Hr speed of the horse would probably be faster when running over 1200m?

If those things are so, I agree with DD.

If those things aren't so, I've got no idea what I'm talking about.


I've never been into time handicapping but the Beyer books seem to be the place where the people who are start.

Not much of a times man myself Wenona but you maybe right.I think ill give this a miss, Thanks for the input though

Andrew Beyer is the guru of time handicapping Junior.

He writes from an American context but anyone interested in the topic should probably read his stuff.

I imagine there'd be plenty available on Amazon, ebay etc.

Thanks Wenona
Ordered "Handicapping for the 20th Century" a few hours into this project, hopefully arrives Wednesday combination of update to beyer + Steven Crist of DRF

One interesting thing I heard Mark Lambourne say on the Punters Show once was that  he always adds the last 600m race sectional back on to the overall time when comparing times between races.

So if one horse wins a 1200m race  in 1.10.9 with a last 600m in 35.5 and another wins over the same course in 1.11.2 with a last 600m of 34.6 he'd rate the second winner 0.6 seconds superior despite having a slower overall time.

Not passing any judgement on it, just saying I thought it was interesting.

All,

Beyer lost money when betting in Australia!

Fours

from Wenona
The only thing I know about time is that even time is 15 seconds per furlong but we probably shouldn't go there.



Even Time:
 Also known as "Evens". A galloper running 200m in 15 seconds in training workouts. Under race conditions the average time for 200m is 12 seconds.
 (racing victoria "beginners guide ")
sorry 

From Fours
"Beyer lost money when betting in Australia!"

Spot on Fours, from memory he came here to teach the locals a thing or two about gambling, but went home with his tail between his legs not long after.
Tough game this.

Hi Junior Try to get a copy of an Australian produced, by Jacaranda Press, book called Scientific Racegoing, by I. S. Cohen and G. Stephens. They are hard to find but worth their weight in Gold. You can probably get a photocopy from The National Library,  http://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/610051,  but other libraries may have a copy available. In it an Aussie Journalist from The Courier Mail edited the American Version of Scientific Handicapping for Australian conditions and tracks. It also shows one how to set up a Par Table equalised over a number of Tracks and Distances, and how you go about calculating relative times over these distances. Plus a lot more. The more useful sections cover Patterns of Predictability, which shows one the patterns of racing when moving distances like you mention, and when these moves are likely to come off.  Remember Speed ( in its four forms ) is only one third of the methods of Race Analysis, the Other being Statistical Analysis of Key Factors and the Third is the Don Scott Weight/ Class method.

The Aussie editor ( now passed, and forgotten  his name  ) said he never had a losing day at the races once he started using this Speed Method, until he bought and raced a Racehorse, and then all wisdom goes astray.

A copy of part of my Track/distance ( 1000 m to 2400 m) table looks like this and to properly analyse a race from a Speed perspective you will need to build something similar.

Gavin Haynes has developed speed ratings based on Beyer and adapted to Australia. His website is:
http://www.horsetorque.com.au/
His speed ratings are very accurate - very many overlays and long priced winners - often top rated.
He has a book available for $49.50 called the Speed Bible which compares many race courses across Australia.

The problem I see with comparing times is the different surfaces in Aus.
I guess the fewer the tracks with a similar surface would be needed to get some accuracy with comparisons.
I'm guessing this Beyer had that in the US & would have been befuddled by the different tracks here.

The speedBible sounds interesting but I wonder if they also input what time of year is involved which could further complicate things. 

Just take a look at what one can uncover by comparing equalised  speed Ratings to a PAR Time that allow comparisons over different distances and at different tracks. The example is for The Emirates Race 6  5th November 2011 ( actual Race Rating was 90.25 ).  Take a look at the calculated Equalised Ratings for No 7  Albert The Fat  and  No 9 Woorim for their last three runs, which usually shows or at least points to race fitness.

Tabn Horse Speed W/M Speed  distance
 7. Albert 100.05 102.62  over 1200 metres
 7. Albert. 87.70 91.00  over 1200 metres
 7. Albert. 98.25 100.82  over 1400 metres

 9. Woorim. 71.84 77.36  over 1600 metres
 9. Woorim.  89.95 91.05 over 1600 metres
 9. Woorim.  84.45 85.91 over  1400 metres. Now which of these two had the better chance of being a Value Bet and springing a surprise  WIN?.    



And we would see something similar if I put up the Race 8 figures, but of course this was the first time for a long while that we had a GOOD Track. So SPEED Matters, sometimes!.

Cheers for the replies,ill def look into those books