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2012-May-26, 06:32 PM

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Racehorse TALK

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Author Topic: Blackbooking  (Read 894 times)
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Tevez17
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Original Post 2011-Nov-27, 12:26 AM

Over the last 2 months I've taken my blackbooking up a notch focusing on Vic Races,

What I've found so far is that the winners that I've blackbooked have had a far better strike rat than the blocked run/unlucky/need more distance types,

I'm just wondering if the big replay watches out there have found the same thing or maybe it's just got more to do with what i look for in a run?
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MagiC~*
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2011-Nov-30, 09:00 AM

Would I be wrong in saying that all serious punters, those that do it for a living, are avid video watchers, and rate the horse, race, and add horse comments ?

For mine, I think that is the only way to win consistently, but I don't have the time, or want to get that serious  shy

I have quite a few friends, that work as a network, doing the above, and consistently win, what most would describe as a very nice yearly wage, but the work they need to put in, most would struggle to do consistently.
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Tevez17
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2011-Nov-30, 01:10 PM

Tevez it is not about overlooking the obvious, the point of BB'ing a horse is to let you know that you saw something that may not show up in it's true form, a reminder if you will, a win usually will show up and you don't really need a reminder is all I am saying, I am not doubting the validity or the quality of the winner and I am certainly not "overlooking the obvious"

I realise that winners are different, some are more impressive than others as you said "you can't tell how a horse won" (from the form) I covered that when I said that impressive winners are usually very exposed to everyone, when watching a race everyone focuses on the winner, it is rarely missed especially if it was impressive, if they impress you then they probably impressed everyone including the bookie,  they are good to follow from a strike rate point of view but most are no value, it is what is hidden where the money is to be made,
I never discount the winner as a horse to follow, that is not what I am advocating, I am saying I look for the hidden runs as BB'ers more than the obvious, I remember the winners(usually)




The idea of blackbooking to me is to tell me something the form doesn't, we seem to agree on that,

When people watch a race they watch what they have money on, when the go back to watch a replay the majority go looking for the unobvious they don't go looking for the winner.

I just think it's a myth that a winner comes always comes up unders, good example Better Be Sure, won a maiden like a city class horse, went to a 0-62 they opened 2.20 won easy, then went to a 0-68 opened 2.20 again & it won easy again, not fancy odds but for a horse that is easily a couple classes better a great price.

Have a look at the horse than won the Sandown Guineas it only had one start previous a Hamilton Maiden but it was impressively certainly more impressive that a Hamilton maiden win reads on paper.

I said earlier in the thread i look for horses that are under classed, whether they won or came last, I must admit I won't find to many that come up 20/1 next start but i will find plenty of winners.
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Jim Pike
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2011-Nov-30, 05:07 PM

I really don't think there is a lot of difference in what we look for, I just BB'd the last winner at Canterbury!!

Magic I agree with what you say too, funny I have known many punters in the past that have told me you can't win at gambling??? of those people I ask them the following questions.....................

1, How much work(in hours) do you put into trying to win?? the answer is usually they buy the daily paper and study for an hour or so, which leads me to ask them how much profit they would expect to make if they put the same effort into their job/Profession? of course they would go broke doing that too!!

2, where did you learn how to study form/horses?? the answer is usually from their Dad or mates, my next question is were they successful punters?? of course the answer is always in the negative, which leads to the obvious next question

Why would you learn from established life long losers?? you wouldn't learn to be a Doctor from listening to a Brickies laborer would you?? or Vice versa!!

My point is the ones who win put in the hours and the effort, the harder you work the luckier you get was never truer than in the racing/gambling industry

I am also a great believer in Synergy as you said working in a network of people with similar passions and abilities as no one sees/hears everything
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