Racehorse TALK

An old adage Tev

History repeats itself

WHAT do you look for in a run Tevez If its not the blocked run/unlucky/need more distance types ?

Basically I look for horses that I think are under graded/can win 2 classes up, ie running in maiden I think it could win a 0-62-0-68, or of its won a maiden that I think it could win a 0-72 or 0-78, ect

I blackbooked Full Peal months ago, backed it first up when it lost and havent had a cent on in his 5 wins since  

Always said I was a good judge but a crap punter

I reckon you are spot on Tevez.

Winning form is good form, and I have also found that blackbooking the 'unlucky' horse or the 'eye catcher' is not that profitable.  They can be a real trap.  The 'unlucky' horse is often consistently unlucky - which suggests it lacks something other than luck.  The 'eye catcher' is often one of those horses that runs on late, usually over a collapsing pace when the race is already won.  etc, etc.

Blackbooking progressive winners is a very sound approach.  A good exercise is to look back at lower grade races from say 12 months ago and follow the histories of the horses that competed in them.  The winners often go on to win again but the form of the also rans mostly goes nowhere.

It stands to reason I suppose.  Any low grade field full of horses early in their careers and establishing their form could contain a potential open handicap winner amongst the majority which will go nowhere.  The potential 'class band' in a maiden race is broader than in any other grade of race - because all of them have yet to prove themselves.   The higher up the grades we go the narrower that potential 'class band' is as the form becomes more exposed and the gradings more restrictive.

Pure ability is more likely to determine the outcome of a low grade event, pure circumstance is more likely to determine the outcome of a high grade event ... the class system serves to separate the wheat from the chaff, and it works.

I suppose what I am saying is that Tevez's approach (blackbooking winners) is a good one when focused in those progressive grades but will become less productive if applied higher up the class ladder.

Gotta say that about 80% of the winners I have found in the last 6 months have come from watching the video rather than reading the form guide

DD will be pleased

hate it when one of your blackbookers is put into a race that is too strong or distance isn't right. even worst when you're not on at the good odds and they get up

stewards reports are fairly well detailed but i still try to find things in races that escape them being noted.

Yes, I fronted them one day about this. The reports in the papers and form dont always reflect the full enquires that they make. Their web site often has a lot more detail

Funny you mention Full Pearl as i put it in after the strong win 3 runs back, was able to have a good go at around $3 last start and a little go yesterday (i was concerned about the track)

Have missed Freereturn and Lets Be Happy though, looking back not sure why i didn't like their wins more

One condition i think worth noting, is a well backed runner that fails

In madiens I bb the 2nd horse if there is a fair or increasing gap to the 3rd horse.

Couple of other conditions like less than 10 starts and sum of past 2 beaten distances less than 3 lengths.

Also if there is a very well supported (odds on) winner in a maiden I will bb the 2nd horse even if it is a distance from the winner if there is a similar gap to the third horse.

b