Racehorse TALK

MR5 H5 Light Touch - IAS $17.00/$4.60

What's the rest of the criteria?

Weona, not that stupid a theory, some of my decent wins in the distant past  have indeed been on first uppers, i suspect your "criteria" is somewhat similar to mine. A couple of important ones for me are....

has performed first up previously preferably at a similar distance
the trainer has an ok record at producing them for a first up kill
and very importantly (to me), has been in the market it's last few runs (the old where there's smoke there's fire theory)
And i like them even better if there's a claiming apprentice on that can sit on ok, you dont pay those fancy overheads (tote price) for the Olivers and McEvoy's and Munce's of the world.

I would have thought being well drawn would be a component.

Obviously not.

to a certain extent, but the odds get even better if you draw the car park, and a good hoop or a clever tactical move at the start can negate that in a few seconds. Another little bonus point(s) i give a first up horse which some may find strange...is what TAB number they are, the lower the number the more units go on, topweights get no points   Also penalties apply to professional placegetters, if they are not winners they might as well have terrible figure form to further inflate the odds 

this is the kind of horse that meets my requirements, Adelaide race 4....

jockey    tick
trainer   tick
won 1st up   tick
been in the market   tick
trod on the sacred city soil since winning a maiden and well beaten in harder races...an extra bonus point

let's see how it runs

5 ROCK CULTURE B F 3 S PRICE 54 Mark Kavanagh - Morphettville (3)
Royal Blue, Black And White Checked Sash And Cap
4:1-0-0 $8890  D 3:1-0-0     1st UP  2:1-0-0     2nd UP  1:0-0-0  Fastnet Rock - Multicultural

1-8 GEES G 23Aug 1200   3YF MDN-SW   M Rodd (7) 57  $3.0Hot Summer Ni 4.5L 1-13.07
9-11 M V D 10Sep 1200   3YF-SWP   D Oliver (4) 55  $14.0 Atlantic Jewe 7.0L 1-11.66
5-9 SANL D 21Sep 1200   3YF 0 - 68   L Nolen (4) 57  $6.5 Shopaholic (N 5.4L 1-12.87

I like horses who have been freshened rather than purely first up. Horses that are freshened up from 2000-2400m back to 1400-1600m off 4/5 or 6 weeks.

I also like front running middle distant horses first up over 1200-1400m.

but alas, the whole world tipped the good thing winner, John Letts, late mail, Terry Macauliffe, all the papers, that's why i'm going out the back door day by day

https://tatts.com/racing/2011/12/24/AR/4

i always look at first up horses, especially midweek... you have them back from 200 day spells sometimes and they hve improved and big odds

RECOUP DE FORTUNE has a strong first up record and has had a change of trainer. Resumes today in the 6th in Melboune at a big price

Check out UK jumps races, they resume after 300 days over 4800 in a chase 

They've even debut over them 

This may help in your quest to start winning and supports your quest here.

Firstly, look for horses that have started first up a minimum of 4 times.  3 from 3 is acceptable.

Secondly, dismiss any horse first up that has not finished in the placing 75% of the time.

Cheers

About 35 days I think is the minimum according to Thesportsman and Thesmartman