Parimutuels versus Fixed Odds - #1 Horse Racing Forum in Australia for Race-Horse News

dubbledee

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Original Post 2011-Dec-26, 08:29 PM

The availability of fixed odds from TABs and corporates has changed the way many of us bet.

For the Saturday fixtures, it's pretty easy to get set as early as Wednesday night.

Partly due to the nature of the beast, I put our Place Challenge bets on well before post time. Usually not as early as Wed night, but often on Thursday, Friday, and some on Saturday mornings.

We all understand that betting too early is fraught with danger. Track conditions can change alarmingly, and we're always at risk of SCRs taking a slice of our odds.

However, my impression has been that it's possible to use the fixed markets to advantage - at least with respect to the standard TAB divvies which we don't see till the horses go over the line.

I decided to try to get some measure of the advantage or otherwise. Maybe I've been kidding myself. stop

The bets (and their results and payouts) are all shown on the Challenge thread. I could work only with the ACTUALS for the horses that placed. For the losers, I couldn't get an accurate figure on likely payouts after deductions.

There were a couple of bets for which I took best tote. These have been excluded. Otherwise, there were 40 winning bets, for which the total stake was $1704.

(I've attached the spreadsheet for these bets.)

Forum Nov_Challenge_Bets.xlsx (14.39 KB - downloaded 50 times.)
The total payout (from fixed markets) was $4201. Had I put the same stakes on Tattsbet parimutuel, the return would have been $3355. In other words, by taking the fixed odds, I beat the TAB by 25%.

That's a margin that's hard to give away, IMO.


« Last Edit: 2011-Dec-27, 12:27 PM by dubbledee »	Logged

fours

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2011-Dec-27, 03:15 AM

Dubbledee,

Great post.

You must have changed your drinking water lately or is it that milk....

Fours


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Kato

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2011-Dec-27, 07:52 AM

As you say DD, betting too early is fraught with danger -SCR & track conditions. Other considerations include horses not even doing their last track work before the big event or other horses being touted as "good things" on the day or just prior to the day. One feels really stupid if you back a horse a long way out & they end up drifting in price etc.

With all this in mind I'm inclined to wait for Betfair & some decent size pools before placing bets, more often than not on the day of the race. The key is the pool size IMO & obviously for races like MC & CP pools are huge well before the event. But that doesnt remove the scratching or track condition issue.

BF are seemingly always over the parimutel price. If BF is unders prior to the race I generally find that the odds tigten up on the Tote.

Talking of pool sizes the Aus v India test has over $8m matched on BF -sorry off topic but a huge pool none the less.


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JWesleyHarding

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2011-Dec-27, 08:07 AM

DD

Did the odds you see, and take, influence your selection?

"Geez, 8.50 is overs I take that even though Radish is my fourth choice."

Or did you say "I'm backing these ten horses for the day, now I'll try for the best odds."

To be fair, I think the bets chosen under the first scenario , if any, should also be excluded in the comparison.


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Gintara

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2011-Dec-27, 09:26 AM

Agree JWH.

Talking to the brother-in-law who does Brisbane, he has a great strike rate of identifying his best bet for the weekend and more often than not it will firm up from the time markets come out to race day. His win strike rate is around 50%

Certainly food for thought DD chin


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Wenona

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2011-Dec-27, 10:27 AM

JWesleyHarding writes ... 2011-Dec-27, 08:07 AM

Why should they be excluded?

Isn't his point that you can increase your advantage by selectively picking horses that you think have a chance and you also feel have been over priced by the early markets?

I don't read his post as saying everyone should back all their selections early.


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JWesleyHarding

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2011-Dec-27, 10:41 AM

Maybe I was too heavily influenced by the wording of the subject header.


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dubbledee

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2011-Dec-27, 11:03 AM

Geoff

I don't know whether you get my tip sheet, but if you do, you'll see that every horse I back in the Challenge is high up my selections list.

Never would I back a horse solely because I felt the odds on offer (on Thursday) were greater than what I could expect at the jump. I'm not someone who thinks "every horse has a chance" when I'm thinking about bets. In fact, I probably eliminate half the field as place chances.

One of the beauties of place betting is that you can back your fourth or fifth selection - provided the odds are attractive.

On the Worm thread, these selections are not put up because they're good odds: they're up there because I think they have a chance AND are at what I believe at the time are attractive odds.


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dubbledee

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2011-Dec-27, 11:06 AM

With regard to the 25% advantage I've obtained over the most recent Challenge, I was a bit disappointed in that. I felt it would be higher.

Also, it begs the question as to what - if any - advantage I obtained vs Best Tote. I'll try to do that check and post it.

And, I wonder how Betfair SP would go vs my actual bets. Not sure they operate on Wednesdays. chin

Plus, I haven't been able to look back in Betfair's records and get SPs for the drum.


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dubbledee

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2011-Dec-27, 11:08 AM

Kato, appreciate that Betfair will beat totes, but it's not practicable for me to use Betfair. Plus, I like the idea of putting up the actual bets for shareholders before the races.


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Kato

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2011-Dec-27, 11:17 AM

Yeah fair enough DD - I see why you want to bet early so that you can let others in the group know your selections well before they jump
BF is generally small pools mid week & as such odds are distorted.
You can now access results from previous meetings on BF & the facility is user friendly in that you can just run your mouse over individual races & get results without opening & closing page after page.

25% better return is not to shabby wink


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dubbledee

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2011-Dec-27, 11:20 AM

Kato, thanks for that.

But can you please confirm that you see Betfair SP for the place in their records. I've seen WIN.


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JWesleyHarding

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2011-Dec-27, 11:37 AM

Yes I know that DD.

All I'm saying is that when I read the subject header what would follow would be a general post on the relative merits of parimutuel odds versus fixed odds but what followed was a selective use of examples.

That's fine if you intended to show "Use of Fixed Odds versus Parimutuels."

Maybe I'm nitpicking embarrassed

I'll take my leave. bye


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dubbledee

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2011-Dec-27, 11:48 AM

Geoff

Yes, fair comment.

But the thread is open for others to make their own comments on the topic - based on the way they use Fixed markets vs Totes. It could be that even at the jump, there's an edge to be gained. Shrug

The opening post gives my own experiences.

The fixed markets are in play for at least two days now, prior to the jump. Obviously, some of us on here use them.


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Kato

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2011-Dec-27, 12:11 PM

Yes DD confirmed. If you run your mouse over the race the F4 place getters are shown. There is detailed info if you drill down further including "Best weighted average price" I tried copying & pasting to no avail mad

But I just accesssed the 7th race on Saturday which Just destiny won & it is quoted as $5.63 W & $2.32 P. best weighted average

They also line up all Win tote prices from all states so that prices can be compared.


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