Parimutuels versus Fixed Odds - #1 Horse Racing Forum in Australia for Race-Horse News

dubbledee

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Original Post 2011-Dec-26, 08:29 PM

The availability of fixed odds from TABs and corporates has changed the way many of us bet.

For the Saturday fixtures, it's pretty easy to get set as early as Wednesday night.

Partly due to the nature of the beast, I put our Place Challenge bets on well before post time. Usually not as early as Wed night, but often on Thursday, Friday, and some on Saturday mornings.

We all understand that betting too early is fraught with danger. Track conditions can change alarmingly, and we're always at risk of SCRs taking a slice of our odds.

However, my impression has been that it's possible to use the fixed markets to advantage - at least with respect to the standard TAB divvies which we don't see till the horses go over the line.

I decided to try to get some measure of the advantage or otherwise. Maybe I've been kidding myself. stop

The bets (and their results and payouts) are all shown on the Challenge thread. I could work only with the ACTUALS for the horses that placed. For the losers, I couldn't get an accurate figure on likely payouts after deductions.

There were a couple of bets for which I took best tote. These have been excluded. Otherwise, there were 40 winning bets, for which the total stake was $1704.

(I've attached the spreadsheet for these bets.)

Forum Nov_Challenge_Bets.xlsx (14.39 KB - downloaded 50 times.)
The total payout (from fixed markets) was $4201. Had I put the same stakes on Tattsbet parimutuel, the return would have been $3355. In other words, by taking the fixed odds, I beat the TAB by 25%.

That's a margin that's hard to give away, IMO.


« Last Edit: 2011-Dec-27, 12:27 PM by dubbledee »	Logged

dubbledee

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2011-Dec-27, 12:24 PM

Thanks, Kato.

But is the "best weighted average" what they pay as SP?

I mean can I stick $30 on Just Destiny SP place before I go to the races. What will I get paid?


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dubbledee

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2011-Dec-27, 12:27 PM

I've done the check on fixed versus Best Tote.

That improves the return, but Fixed wins by 17%.

If ya download the link in the opening post you'll get the updated spreadsheet.


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Kato

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2011-Dec-27, 12:39 PM

DD not sure if that is what they pay as SP.
But yes you can definitely put $30 on JD before you go to the races & you will, if matched, have your bet at the matched price eg $30 @ $2.50 = profit of $75 less their commission of 5% = $71.25

I understand that some punters commission is different from others -this is apparently due to them winning too much?

Having said all that. often place markets maybe running at 200% or worse two or three hours before the event. I presume this is because whom ever is framing the market doesn't want to be hit with a spot on DD special or similar. The market does get far more realistic closer to the starting time as more money wants to be matched


« Last Edit: 2011-Dec-27, 12:45 PM by Kato »	Logged

dubbledee

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2011-Dec-27, 12:42 PM

Kato, thanks again.

The commision rate applied is based on turnover, I gather. Most of us minnows are on 4.5 - 5%. rolleyes

On the matching...I don't wanna put up a price to be matched...I just wanna get the "SP" on Betfair. (There's explanation the site.) I'd like to be able to see what's happened in the past. They remove the SP divvy from the page shortly after the finish.


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chuggers

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2011-Dec-27, 12:52 PM

dubbledee writes ... 2011-Dec-27, 12:24 PM

Thanks, Kato.

But is the "best weighted average" what they pay as SP?No--it is the BF SP price is what they pay

I mean can I stick $30 on Just Destiny SP place before I go to the races.

done it many times in the past


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Kato

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2011-Dec-27, 12:55 PM

You seem to have your head around better than me DD -that not surprising biggrin

. BF just suits me when I punt at home. I can wait until the last minute or alternatively wait to be matched with a longer price which invariably gets matched

Please dont think I'm spruiking BF. I think they're all thieves wink

sneaky to boot removing the SP!
Never sure if BF are putting up a price or the average Joe is?


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dubbledee

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2011-Dec-27, 12:58 PM

Thanks, chuggers. So we now wanna know if we can get the "Betfair SP" from the past? chin

And how do you find Betfair SP vs Totes????

Kato, Thumb Up


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jfc

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2011-Dec-27, 01:02 PM

dubbledee writes ... 2011-Dec-27, 12:58 PM

Thanks, chuggers. So we now wanna know if we can get the "Betfair SP" from the past? chin

And how do you find Betfair SP vs Totes????

Kato, Thumb Up

http://sp.betfair.com.au/SP_history.php


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dubbledee

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2011-Dec-27, 01:07 PM

Thanks, jfc, but can't see Betfair PLACE SPs. unsure


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