Racehorse TALK

Well another year on the punt ends, my fortieth, and I suppose it's time to have a few single malts, reflect and make some posts I wouldn't make if I was sober.

Did I win? I honestly don't know. I keep my betting money separate from my other money but dip into it every now and then to treat the family or contribute to holidays. The punts been good to me for at least the last decade or so including a European holiday financed through quinella betting. I had a period of a couple of years where money I made playing online poker counted as wage income but horse betting betting has always been a hobby.

I can't beat the rake playing cards anymore without the bonuses that were previously offered so I've stopped playing but  I think I'll always bet on horses or dogs even if I knew I was negative ev.

So my 2011 year.  January to the Sydney carnival was a strip out. Poor quality horses, poor quality racing, poor results. It is every year. I don't think I'll have a bet in January or February this coming year.  The Sydney Carnival was great. Probably won a couple of grand and got back everything I'd lost earlier and some more. Move onto the Brisbane Carnival. Another strip out. Lost a stack on the Gold Coast meetings - again!! - They're now NO BET meetings for me. I've had good Winter Carnivals in the recent past so I'm not wiping it from my playbook (except for the coast).

Moving on to the Spring and things got back in the groove. The Melbourne Cup was great for me again. Has been for a number of years. I basically trade the race from about three months out. I've got lots of accounts including many UK accounts and this year was great for being able to bet in the UK and lay off at a profit on Betfair. Ended up with every runner showing a profit and the winner being my third best result. If I had my super rational hat on I'd only trade. Look for trading edges, make small profits week to week and hit the Cup big every year. Unfortunately that's all a bit boring for me.

The period from the Spring until now has been bad again. Lost about 50% of my Spring profits and disappointed with myself as it's always a poor period for me and I should have just had a break.

So overall I'd say my bank is about what it was twelve months ago. Any profits I made from the horses was lost playing cards. I definitely lost money playing online poker this year.

One thing I'd say is I can't do the hours I used to do. Twenty years ago I just bet in Brisbane. I'd pick about four races on the card to bet and spend at least two hours analysing each race on the Friday and spend many hours during the week on other types of form study and analysis.  I'd be very disciplined, have my win markets, have my quinella markets, I'd be very focused on race days, have structured betting and I got the rewards for my efforts. 

I can't do that anymore. I just can't. Work, family, priorities and age all get in the way now.

These days I bet far more by 'feel'. I try to find races that I feel the market has got wrong. I no longer look for the small edges within an efficient market because I don't have the time or energy to find them. I do more stuff from interest. I'll take an idea and follow it for a while out of interest to see how it goes. I often lose money on those ideas. Sometimes I'll post a thread for a particular idea. It may last a week, it may last a few months. I do it because I think what is missing from my betting these days is the structure I used to have.

Posting stuff here makes you make decisions and structure your thinking. It's one of the best aspects of being a member of a forum like this. I don't expect anyone else will read it but it's good for me to have the forum available.

So a break even year passes by. What about 2012?

Well I think I need to structure myself more in 2012. Better record keeping is top of the list.

I also need to be aware of were I am in my life. My partner and I have always had a good arrangement about work and family. At times I've worked more and she's done other stuff and at times she's worked more and I've done other stuff. We're very fortunate that we have careers that allow us a fair degree of flexibility. In 2012 my partner starts her Phd. That means I have to increase my work commitments for a few years to carry the family financial responsibilities.

That means my betting focus will probably be decreased.

I've thought about it and I think for 2012 I need to re-focus my horse betting to micro situations I think I have an edge. I need to accept I'm not as young as I was and I have higher priorities in my life.

I think the thing that will make it all worth while is the Centrebet option where you can nominate the runners in a race you want to make a book around. This allows head to head betting or creating markets around whatever runners you select in a race.

The head to head markets are put up around the 107%.

I reckon I can beat this margin and have decided to focus on this type of betting for the 2012 year. It also allows me to focus on a subset of the race or just a heads up analysis of two runners close together in the market. It suits my time constraints and my current tolerance levels for race analysis.

So there you have it, where I'm at on the punt.

How'd you go this year and what's you're plan for 2012?