Stormy
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 Original Post 2011-Dec-30, 12:44 AM
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Over the months have been watching horses that have a first up run and have placed 5th. Not sure of the percentages as yet. It was very interesting to find that these horses land some awesome double Figure odds. Also the other variable have been studying is any horse same concept but looks like this in the form and has to be 5,X5,X05 So will post the horses that fit the variable and see how they go.  Anyone feel free to add a horse using that only variable to the thread  |
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« Last Edit: 2012-Jan-10, 02:02 PM by Stormy »
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Paulow
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2012-Jan-07, 06:45 PM
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Good on ya Stormy I was the only one backing u  Lot of egg on the face of the "purists" and "traditionalists" aye  They will be scared when they see a 1st up 5th against one of their bets  |
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Paulow
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2012-Jan-07, 07:04 PM
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Toowoomba r6 Rocklea Raider is a 1st up 5th runner…..i have tipped Eureka Strike. Bit scared of urs Stormy  Everyone soon will be, once word of this gets round 
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Paulow
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2012-Jan-07, 07:47 PM
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Missed 1 at Kembla Stormy…
r6 Actrice $20.60 unitab
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Stormy
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2012-Jan-08, 06:28 AM
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Missed 1 at Kembla Stormy…
r6 Actrice $20.60 unitab
Yes was a great bet and return, and the reason why I backed as well that horse was 3rd top rated at $8.40 in the ratings. So my day on the punt was Awesome. Am glad you got on it as well. Well Done. |
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Stormy
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2012-Jan-08, 06:46 AM
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08/01/2012 If these horses get in the ratings should be good value. Sunshine CoastR1 ) 4 BUSINESS DAY ( Winner ) R5 ) 2 ZELDA'S LAD / 13 COMPADRE R7 ) 4 I'M RUTHLESS GilgandraR6 ) 7 THE GHOST R8 ) 15 SPINNING YARNS KynetonR6 ) 5 MIDNIGHT LOUIE ( Placed 3rd ) R8 ) 14 TWICHINTIME Port LincolnR1 ) 7 DULCIE DEE ( this one could be a good one ) ( This Horse is Top Rated ) (SCR) Coffs HarbourR2 ) 13 OGRE ( This horse is Top Rated ) R3 ) 12 CABARITA QUEEN GeraldtonR1 ) 4 STREET ROCKET R4 ) 14 SPECKS WarrenamboolR3 ) 10 FITS AND STARTS ( could be a good one for value ) Winner 4.60 1.70 |
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« Last Edit: 2012-Jan-09, 06:27 AM by Stormy »
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Paulow
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2012-Jan-09, 05:25 PM
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Stormy, u should have a look thru the results at todays meetings, i noticed 1 runner winning at 20-1--only spotted a few runners
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El Dufus
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2012-Jan-09, 07:13 PM
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I am a bit of a statistics junkie so from time to time I gather stats on various aspects of form or favourites or anything else that takes my fancy.
On last start form figures, and from 4,805 races in my records, there have been 3,951 starters with a last start form figure of 5, and 344 winners (8.70% strike rate).
Using Betfair SP, a flat stake $1.00 win bet on every one of those qualifiers returns $4,236, a return of 7.2% (before commission).
So theoretically, it is possible to make a modest profit backing a last start 5th place.
It is not the most profitable last start placing however, but that is my secret, as I'm using it at the moment!
ED
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monologue
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2012-Jan-09, 08:09 PM
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Ed while your at it can you check the 7th l/s for me. They knocked up winning on Sunday all over the countryside. PS Please keep them stats secret between you and me...a PM will suffice. Thanks  |
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El Dufus
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2012-Jan-10, 11:33 AM
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Long term, it appears that last start 5th is better than last start 7th.
ED
Mono, PM sent yesterday.
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Stormy
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2012-Jan-10, 02:04 PM
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I can tell you right now, that you can land some great odds if you stick with a plan. |
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winner
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2012-Jan-10, 02:54 PM
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And has he now retired to North Queensland on the proceeds of these two "theories"? or still working for a living?[/font][/size][/color]
If he made a motza why would he retire to Queensland? |
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Stormy
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2012-Jan-10, 04:04 PM
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Quote, You musta felt privileged to have such info passed down to you, Stormy? Bit like the recipe for Coca-Cola?QuoteIf I needed a recipe I would go to a cooking forum. 
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Stormy
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2012-Jan-10, 04:06 PM
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So theoretically, it is possible to make a modest profit backing a last start 5th place.
And this is a fact otherwise I would not of posted it. Thanks El Dufus |
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Stormy
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2012-Jan-10, 04:24 PM
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11/01/2012
Eagle Farm
R2 ) 4 GOLD BEST
Sandown
R3 ) 1 JUNGLE ROVER
R5 ) 1 RIVER OF SALVATION
R7 ) 1 SEDUCED
Kembla Grange
R2 ) 9 SHAFTING
R5 ) 12 SECRET ORDERS
R7 ) 9 ORSSINI
Murray Bridge
R1 ) 3 JAIPUR GEM
Pinjarra
R1 ) 7 BLACK STEEL
R4 ) 6 NAMISUKI
R6 ) 13 COLD HANDEL
R7 ) 2 ZARATINO
R8 ) 10 AQUATIC KING
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arthur
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2012-Jan-12, 03:44 PM
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If he made a motza why would he retire to Queensland?
Winner . . Read it again NORTH Queensland  Helluva difference |
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