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2012-May-26, 09:16 PM

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Author Topic: Track Rating by Numbers a Farce  (Read 2762 times)
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Mercs2
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Original Post 2012-Jan-02, 04:08 PM

Matt Stewart alluded to it today and events at Flemington this afternoon only confirmed it.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/much-to-look-foward-to-in-2012/story-fn67siys-1226234382817
Quote
HE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY

RENOWNED nark John Hawkes never liked the idea of numbered track ratings.

When it was announced a few years back that tracks would be not just be rated heavy, slow, dead, good and fast - but would range from Heavy 10 to Fast 1 - his response was something like: "They can't even get a good right, what hope a Good 3?"

Hawkes was on the money.

Numbered ratings sounded good in theory because they would be more specific, more helpful to punters and trainers, than the broad deads, goods and fasts.

Problem is, the ratings bear little resemblance to the surface.

Every track manager wants to achieve a Good 3 because it sounds perfect. The official RVL website description of a Good 3 is: "An ideal track with some give."

So what's happened?

Almost every track comes up a Good 3, or starts as a Dead 4 with the promise of a Good 3 by race time.

Anything different and the track manager feels like he's failed.

Flemington recently was rated a Good 3.

The times suggested it was a Good 2. There are heaps of other examples.

The losers are the punters, of course, and the trainers, who race on an "ideal" Good 3 then put the horse's legs in a bucket of ice when it gets home.


First race was rated at a Dead 5.
How this was even possible after the heat and dry Melbourne has had the past week was beyond comical and the times proved it..

Race 1 a 0-82 over 1000 on the Dead 5 they ran 56.63.
Now my base rating for the 1000 at Flem is 57.4 at a rating of between 3-4. Now either the winner is exceptionally brilliant or the track rating is miles off.

Immediately the rack is upgraded to Dead 4.
In the third race they run 82.69 for the 1400 on the Dead 4. Unbelievable time for a F&M 0-82

Then we get to the Standish by which time the track is now a Good 3.
Two track upgrades in 3 hours. what

The winner Catapulted is a very good horse. Gr 2 at his best.
He runs 67.66 for the 1200.
My base is 69.2.

That is a ridiculous time for a Good 3. Even on a Fast 1 he is rating Gr 1 figures (and above).
Notwithstanding that there is room for error with my base figures and that Catapulted was a huge run, I would say the track today at Flemington was a Fast 0 or even almost a Fast -1.

And that was from Race 1.
Definitely not a Dead 5.

IMO the track figures these days are not worth the paper their printed on. I've seen Heavy 8's that were actually Heavy 12's as well so it works both ways.

I feel sorry for the poor track managers as surely they are under instructions to produce Dead 4s and 5s.

The stewards talk about integrity etc but its obvious to all and sundry that the track ratings as they stand are a farce.
« Last Edit: 2012-Jan-07, 09:46 PM by dubbledee » Logged
 
Peter Mair
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2012-Jan-02, 07:07 PM





Do not forget Sydney

The same mis-calling of track conditions is common for the metropolitan tracks monitored by RacingNSW -- has been for years.

Hopefully if, the sectionals being published on TVN's new RacingNetwork site are close to the mark, the administrators will start using and reporting the objective evidence used to guide their track ratings.
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Steve M
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2012-Jan-04, 06:54 AM

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/track-ratings-misleading-punters-says-flemington-track-manager-mick-goodie/story-fn67siys-1226235865928
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dubbledee
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2012-Jan-07, 09:26 PM

The much-vaunted track rating scheme introduced some years back by a Sydney whiz-kid was hailed as the saviour of punters (and track managers) who continue to grapple with the multitude of track conditions that apply around the country.

Just like the penetrometer, it's a load of nonsense, and is nothing but guesswork.

Objective observers would conclude that the 1-10 scale has achieved nothing, and offers no demonstrable advantage over the traditional FAST-GOOD-DEAD-SLOW-HEAVY.

Flemington's track manager Mick Goodie came out swinging when interviewed on Racing Ahead on Radio Sport Nat.  It's well worth a listen, as Goodie covers a few different aspects of track management.

http://www.radiosportnat.com.au/audioplayer/1325721715.Thursday's%20Racing%20Ahead%20050112.mp3

(It's also covered in the major newspapers.)

Goodie suggests we revert back to traditional descriptors, without DEAD.

That would be a very, very, good idea.

« Last Edit: 2012-Jan-07, 09:39 PM by dubbledee » Logged
Runway
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2012-Jan-07, 09:49 PM

wasn't a 'whiz kid' DD - it was Lindsay Murphy who is regarded as a leader in his field in Australia.

I don't think its the 1-10 system thats the problem

Heres what Max Presnall reported on the issue in the smh

Generally most areas have never had it so good, but bleats abound. If the tears blubbered about conditions fell on the surface of Sydney tracks, the ground would be suitable for race meetings in heaven.

Alas, Warwick Farm was too hard last Monday, not enough give in the ground for the modern-day thoroughbred.

''They would have chopped my balls off if I watered a track within seven days of a meeting,'' said Lindsay Murphy, the Australian Turf Club racecourse manager and Australia's most experienced in the field. ''Once a hard, fast track was fabulous but it's the opposite today.''

Warwick Farm trainer Joe Pride complained about Monday's conditions but Robbie Waterhouse, bookmaker and turf student, sent an email of congratulations about the ground. Waterhouse is a firm-track tragic.

''The only time I ever watered a course to get a planned result was disaster,'' Murphy said. ''I'll never do it again.''

Murphy started, specialising in grass for the Sydney Turf Club, in 1977 when the moveable rail came into being, and says the ground is much better now. He regards the Victorian policy of watering to start a program with dead to dry to good as ''impractical''.

During his Sydney reign, the late Tommy Smith never complained about tracks, even Randwick training circuits upon which a walking cocker spaniel would have broken down.

Ray Murrihy, the Racing NSW chief steward, too, gets plenty of groans regarding race-day surfaces. ''It's too hard, too soft, biased,'' he said. ''Some you agree with. Some are laughable. Everyone's an expert.

''I remember a particular person during the course of a Warwick Farm meeting complaining it favoured down the outside for the first couple, then a leader's track for two or three races then before the end of the day you can only win from behind.

''If I said that straight-faced I would be entitled to be locked up. But, seriously, people will come to you with those sort of claims. Vested interest is the primary motivation.''
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dubbledee
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2012-Jan-07, 09:54 PM

Runway, it was a promoted as a "brainchild" of the gentleman concerned.  When, IMO, it's a load of nonsense.  (Mick Goodie agrees.)

The gentleman might be the best track preparer in the universe - but that doesn't qualify him to be the creator of a meaningful track rating scheme.  nowink
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Runway
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2012-Jan-07, 09:59 PM

I disagree - I think its a valid and easily understood system for regulars and less educated racegoers alike.

Not to worry - at least we agree on roundings. Maybe they should always round a dead 4 down to a good 3!
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Runway
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2012-Jan-07, 10:04 PM

and one more thing - lindsay is one of the most unassuming modest blokes you'd ever meet - so words like whizz kid and his 'brainchild'  have been used about him and the system - they would never be words he'd use himself
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Jim Pike
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2012-Jan-07, 10:23 PM

It's all in the eye of the beholder, just because you think it's nonsense DD and Mick Goodie agrees with you doesn't make it fact, it is still just opinion, it isn't that black and white, to use the Fast/Good/Dead/Slow and Heavy just makes it easy for track managers to avoid criticism as they have a wider variance, like last week the hulla balloo was about it being a Good 2 and called a good 3 if it was just called good no one could complain could they?? Track managers problem solved but Joe Pride still has a problem doesn't he?? what would actually change? absolutely nothing!!
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Steve M
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2012-Jan-07, 10:46 PM

There are a number of issues probably being lumped in together when they shouldn't be.

Policy -
Taken from -H-Sun ' RVL Track Preparation Policy all tracks must be prepared to race as a good 3 for the majority of the meeting' is the policy a good one?
I can't see any issues with policy, is it being adhered to correctly? Others will know better than me.

Rating system -
The reality is that if you break down the ratings further - using number system - then it follows you're going to move between up/down grades moreso as same scale is just broken down into more points. Just because it isn't working as well as it could be I'm not sure reducing the level of detail of info is good thing. Maybe scale needs tweaking not sure. Could you use the analogy with sectional data - instead of providing times to .00 we'll just go to .0 and round off there - I mean less detailed info isn't good thing surely. Leading to...

Determining the rating -
Who does it? Stewards/track managers - I gather stewards have the ultimate call. How often to they differ.

When the rating's given -
Naturally if if you're giving a rating at 6.30am for a card starting at 1pm on 35 degree day with summers breeze things will change. Need to listen to what expected going will be? Non issue.

Accuracy -
I think this is where punters have main beef - as per Mercs original post - are ratings matching surface. Retrospective up/downgrades - this doesn't help the punter on the day - but I'd like to know more about criteria here. I suspect data should be experiencing few more retrospective changes which isn't being reflected in historical data.

Maybe I've got it wrong, maybe there are other points more/less.
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dubbledee
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2012-Jan-08, 09:28 AM

There are two issues - and failure to recognise them is confusing the debate.

1.  The track rating system, i.e. names, numbers, symbols, whatever.

2.  The PROCESS/ES for determining that rating in a consistent manner across all tracks.

The first should be a snap, provided good sense is applied.  (At present it's not.)  The second is the difficult one.
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dubbledee
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2012-Jan-08, 09:51 AM

In a perfect world, we would expect a rating system that is meaningful.  Because of the vagaries of racing, climate, and track structure, we might be expecting a bit much on that.  But there's no reason why should not aim for something a lot better than what is currently out there.

We have to work on the concept of STANDARD TIMES - that is the times that a particular class of horse will run over a particular distance.  Hong Kong has done well in their effort along these lines.

Let's work on the STANDARD TIME for Open class sprinters over 1200 at each racetrack.  That would ensure we have a database of reasonable numbers, so that the average (better still the range that covers 2 standard deviations around the mean) has some meaning.

Without having done any analysis of actual time, I'd like to see a Rating Scale of just 5 steps.  FAST, GOOD, DEAD, SLOW, HEAVY is fine, but we could also use Rating 1, 2, 3 4 and 5.

Just pulling numbers out of the air for a track such as Rosehill:

Rating 1 means that Open sprinters would run 1 sec either side of ST.

Rating 2 means that Open spinters would run 1 to 2 secs outside ST.

Rating 3 means that Open sprinters would run 1.5 - 3 secs outside ST.

Rating 4 means that Open sprinters would run 2 - 4 secs outside ST.

Rating 5 means that Open sprinters would run 3 secs or more outside ST.

The actual times and brackets are just hypotheticals.

What is important, is that the industry recruits people who understand measurement and statistical analysis.  The idea that we can throw balls in the air and have them come down to gives us a nice neat number of 10 is totally silly.  That's not the fault of the guy who proposed the idea - he's not a professional statistician.  But it is the fault of the others in the industry who said "Oh, yes.  Sounds good.  Let's go with it."

Until the professionals show that the "old system" of 5 categories was being "measured" with some degree of accuracy and consistency - and that has not been done as yet - the move to TEN categories was nonsense.  And remains nonsense.
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Jim Pike
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2012-Jan-08, 10:07 AM

it still only comes down to someones opinion, there is no definitive way of creating accuracy with any degree of certainty, leave it to nature and it is what it is, a track rating is only a Guide not a guarantee, this is a storm in a tea cup, it means ZERO in the scheme of things
Tracks can be a good 3 in parts, a good 2 in other parts, a Dead 3/4 somewhere else, how can you give an overall rating with any degree of accuracy?? simple you can't!! we punters/trainers/owners etc are far to spoiled with information(most of which is irrelevant anyway) and like little kids if we can't run the game or get what we perceive to be inaccurate info we want to throw all our toys out of the cot, lets just grow up and move on
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dubbledee
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2012-Jan-08, 10:11 AM

Let's get the rating scheme sensible first - THEN think about how we measure the ratings. 

(It might be as simple as the track manager's opinion.  Would be way better than hanging anything on a metal rod.)
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Jim Pike
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2012-Jan-08, 10:21 AM

I agree with that, I have never taken any notice of the penotrometer, you stick it in the ground in one spot when 2 feet away it may be different, then you stick it in the outside of the track get a 6 and the inside and get a 4 so say the Penno is 5 when at no point was the Penno reading actually 5 what does that mean??
Track ratings are like luck in running some times it helps your horse to win while other times they don't, I could understand someone like Joe Pride blowing up if it was given out as a soft track and turned out to be a fast track but good 3 to good 2?? that is splitting hairs and has zero credibility in my opinion, Christ it is summertime, if you have a horse that can't handle hard tracks bring it back in the Autumn/Winter don't race it in Summer!!
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