Racehorse TALK

TFE's opinion. I disagree completely.

Two-Year-Old Timeform Handicaps
 RankHorse  PR  TFE
1 Phelan Ready    2c   More Than Ready (USA)-Nancy Eleanor (AUS)
(Blevic (AUS)) BRUCE & JASON MCLACHLAN  $3,223,500  123
  Real Saga    2C   Tale Of The Cat (USA)-Windy Kate (AUS)
(Air Express (IRE)) MICHAEL & WAYNE & JOHN HAWKES  $742,000  123
3 Manhattan Rain    2C   Encosta De Lago (AUS)-Shantha's Choice (AUS)
(Canny Lad (AUS)) MS G WATERHOUSE  $755,300  122
  More Joyous    2F   More Than Ready (USA)-Sunday Joy (AUS)
(Sunday Silence (USA)) MS G WATERHOUSE  $237,000 122
  Onemorenomore    2C   Red Ransom (USA)-Palia (AUS)
(Last Tycoon (IRE)) JASON COYLE  $358,100  122
6 Reward For Effort    2C   Exceed And Excel (AUS)-Miss Prospect (AUS)
(Rory's Jester (AUS)) PETER MOODY  $732,500  121
7 Black Caviar    2F   Bel Esprit (AUS)-Helsinge (AUS)
(Desert Sun (GB)) PETER MOODY  $105,700  120 +

Anyone who thinks Black Caviar was the best 2 year old of her year would have to have Amelia's Dream as the best 2 year old of the 2007-08 season .

I on the other hand  am of the view that both were potentially the best 2 year olds of their season.True Black Caviar fulfilled that potential later in her career but Amelia's Dream never did ( she never had anymore starts).

However 2 runs not against the best horses leaves you with just potential.

I would also think that the Black Caviar/Amelia's Dream camp would also have Smart Missile as a better 2 year old than Sepoy - at least in his 2 starts he did beat Sepoy.

And just one more thing and I will leave it alone, Not one single person was interested in arguing at the time that I was wrong, and it was all fresh in everybodies mind. Nobody would even remember the 2yos of THAT season.

And you would be right I did have Amelias Dream in top and so did TFE,

Two-Year-Old Timeform Handicaps
 RankHorse  PR  TFE
1 Amelia's Dream    2F   Redoute's Choice (AUS)-Shalt Not (AUS)
(St. Covet (AUS)) GAI WATERHOUSE  $146,200  124
2 Sebring    2C   More Than Ready (USA)-Purespeed (AUS)
(Flying Spur (AUS)) GAI WATERHOUSE  $2,488,500  123
3 Von Costa De Hero    2C   Encosta De Lago (AUS)-Piavonic (AUS)
(Scenic (IRE)) DAVID HAYES  $814,800  121
4 Samantha Miss    2F   Redoute's Choice (AUS)-Milliyet (NZ)
(Zabeel (NZ)) KRIS LEES  $386,800  120
5 Rhyno Chaser    2C   Catcher In The Rye (IRE)-Surfari (AUS)
(Imperial Prince (IRE)) KEVIN MOSES  $81,700  118 ?

Amelia's Dream raced only twice for dominant wins in a 2yo Maiden and the G2 Silver Slipper.
Clearly a very, very good filly with great potential.

Sebring raced 6 times for 5 wins (in a 2yo Hcp, the Listed Breeders Plate and Canonbury and the G1 Golden Slipper and G1 Sires Produce).
Just failed to take out the triple crown with an unlucky head 2nd in the Champagne Stakes.
Perhaps not one of the all time greats but clearly the dominate 2yo of his year.

Amelia's Dream might have been anything but never had the oportunity to show it.

IMO could not possibly justify putting Amelia's Dream over Sebring based on performances.

AMELIA'S DREAM
1-9 RHIL
15-Mar-08 
1100MGood (SILVER SLP G2)2YOSW$202,700($132,700)Nash Rawiller(1)54.52ndHIPS DON'T LIE (NZ)54.5: 3rdGLOWLAMP54.5:1-2.90, Margin 6.3L 1st at 800m, 1st at 400m, Betting $1.7/$1.40F.

1-6 CANT
28-Feb-08 
1100MHeavy (2YF MDN-SW)Maiden2YOSWFillies$25,000($16,250)Nash Rawiller(3)56.02ndOSCILLATOR56.0: 3rdVOLER VRAI56.0:1-5.54, Margin 9.3L 1st at 800m, 1st at 400m, Betting $1.3/$1.60F.

1-6 RHIL
12-Feb-08 
TRIAL900MSlow (BT-2-F-OPN)2YOFillies$0Nash Rawiller(0)0.02ndGLOWLAMP0.0: 3rdSILENTLY0.0:54.42, Margin 0.1L .

SEBRING
2-8 RAND
03-May-08 
1600MDead (CHAMPAGNE G1)2YOSW$452,760($85,500)Blake Shinn(8)56.51stSAMANTHA MISS54.5: 3rdGLOWLAMP54.5:1-38.28, Margin 0.1L 1st at 800m, 1st at 400m, Betting $1.75/$2/$1.90F.

1-11 RAND
26-Apr-08 
1400MHeavy (SIRES PROD G1)2YOSW$452,760($272,760)Blake Shinn(8)56.52ndSAMANTHA MISS54.5: 3rdLOVE AND KISSES54.5:1-25.99, Margin 1.0L 2nd at 800m, 2nd at 400m, Betting $2.2/$2.60F.

1-16 RHIL
19-Apr-08 
1200MHeavy (G SLIPPER G1)2YOSW$3,525,800($2,025,800)Glen Boss(5)56.52ndVON COSTA DE HERO56.5: 3rdPORTILLO54.5:1-12.88, Margin 0.2L 9th at 800m, 10th at 400m, Betting $6/$7/$5.5/$6F.

1-6 RAND
08-Apr-08 
TRIAL740MGood (BT-2CG-OPN)2YOColts & Geldings$0Blake Shinn(0)0.02ndEL CACIQUE0.0: 3rdSWEET SCIENCE0.0:43.20, Margin 1.8L .

1-8 RAND
01-Mar-08 
1100MDead (BRDRS PLTE LR)2YOSWPColts & Geldings$80,000($48,000)Blake Shinn(1)56.02ndDUBAI TO SYDNEY54.0: 3rdBID SPOTTER54.0:1-4.98, Margin 0.8L 3rd at 800m, 3rd at 400m, Betting $1.5/$1.65F.

1-6 RAND
16-Feb-08 
1000MDead (CANONBURY LR)2YOSWPColts & Geldings$75,000($45,000)Blake Shinn(6)54.02ndMING HOI TREASURE54.0: 3rdGIOTTO54.0:58.15, Margin 4.5L 4th at 800m, 1st at 400m, Betting /$1.35F.

1-6 RHIL
19-Jan-08 
1100MSlow (2YO HCP)2YOHcpLimit 55.5$65,000($60,000)Blake Shinn(3)57.52ndOVER THE WICKET58.0: 3rdSIDEREUS57.5:1-6.16, Margin 0.5L 2nd at 800m, 2nd at 400m, Betting $2/$4.

1-6 W FM
04-Jan-08 
TRIAL850MGood (BT-2CG-UNR)2YOColts & Geldings$0Blake Shinn(0)0.02ndDUPORTH0.0: 3rdAICHI0.0:51.00, Margin 8.0L .

1-6 W FM
21-Dec-07 
TRIAL800MGood (BT-2CG-UNR)2YOColts & Geldings$0Blake Shinn(0)0.02ndRED TSAR0.0: 3rdFORTY DAYS0.0:50.80, Margin 0.3L .

And lets not , ever , forget my namesake, Shogun Lodge, who raced as a top 2 year old (was fave in slipper) then placed in both derbies (bad luck arguably in both) , rolled Sunline at WFA on choppy unsuitable track  etc at 3, and was still racing against best
when he died as a G1 Emirates fave, having raced almost nonstop for over 5 yrs.
Good 2 yr olds can become great ongoing durable G1 horses. Nuff said.
Miss ya Showie.
And he saved Bossy as well in his last thought process.

There is a super duper 2yo race at Sandown today. A big boom on Al Aneed and some spectacular pedigrees amongst the unraced brigade.

I suspect Pronto Pronto is the winner though. 

This is the key to the smarties seeing 2 yo racing as money for jam. If the people setting fixed odds markets (bookies, TAB) aren't aware of a horse's ability, they have to GUESS based on the horses breeding, the stable its from, its owners, any jump outs or trials. But if you are a punter connected to a stable/trackwork jock etc, and you've heard that XYZ two year old can eyeball an older group racing performer on the track, a corporate bookie/TAB offering big odds is like a lamb to slaughter.

Bookies love races with exposed form, where the horses are all known quantities. They get their markets correct more often and over the long term the over-round takes care of the rest.

Early 2yo races don't allow for this.

I am surprised Greenwich was so welll thought of prior to his debut run in a group 3 race yet you could get 16/1 earlier about this bloke.

Very very interesting race this one coming up.

Nice one Matt 

ALL TOO HARD - enough said

By God, didn't he look good?

When DD ventures into a 2yo race it pays to follow.

BR1 #1 Wonderful Jester.

I like the pedigree of Swinging Soldier in the 2yo race from Adelaide. He is by top sprinter Soldiers Tale out of a Rory's Jester mare and his 3rd dam is Dnagerous Seam. A good 2yo family.

Speaking of rides DD - thoughts on the 3kg kid on NayNay?