Mantaray
Class 4 user 391
 Offline
Posts : 47
|
|
|
 Original Post 2009-Jan-29, 10:54 AM
|
A thankless task, but I will keep a note of the following roughies.
A)First-Starters at $20+ in Metro races saturdays + Public Hols
B) First Starters at $20+ in all others
C) The system referred to by Wenona from Punter57. As the original poster made it clear tweaking was allowed I have done so. The tweaks are as follow.
Metro Races Only (Saturdays/Public Hols)
1)The close-up at big odds (to eliminate) must be last 2 starts, and not before a spell
2) If the horse is First Up/2nd Up at a very much shorter distance than it has won at before, the qualifying runs (the form figures referred to) start from after the spell
3) Very bad "beaten lengths" will not count if before a spell.
4) The price thresh-hold is $25 for all races, as Betfair has many more "over $20" than the totes.
5) The "down two classes " will apply to Group, Listed, Quality, Open/Welter races. Example; down from G2 to Listed. Down from G3 to Quality.Down from Listed to Open. Any confusion, then "down by two" will mean prizemoney reduced by 33% or more, from the lower of the most recent two races. This avoids the usual confusion about classes. Example a class 6 in City at $50,000 may be tougher than an Open in country at $25000 etc, so instead of assessing every race by contestants, the prizemoney will be the guide..
6) A Close Finish is < 1 Length
I will be betting these ones (C) at $5 per horse. The first-Starters is a watching exercise.
If you have any constructive criticisms then I'll be happy to read them. If it's only to say "it won't work" then why not wait ,and see if it won't work, for a month or two?
Starts today
|
|
|
|
« Last Edit: 2009-Feb-25, 07:51 AM by Mantaray »
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
| |
Big Wheel
VIP Club
Group 2 user 269
Offline
Posts : 2147
|
|
|
2009-Jan-29, 11:14 AM
|
Good luck with it mate  |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
gratlog
Group 1 user 5
Offline
Posts : 12700
|
|
|
2009-Jan-29, 11:52 AM
|
Good luck and the main thing is have some fun with it.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
OldLarsy
Group 1 user 177
Offline
Posts : 18695
|
|
|
2009-Jan-29, 02:37 PM
|
$119 winner at narogin first up from spell  |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Mantaray
Class 4 user 391
Offline
Posts : 47
|
|
|
2009-Jan-30, 11:16 AM
|
29/01/09
A) 0 bets
B) 6 Bets 0 Wins
C) 6 Bets 0 Wins
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Mantaray
Class 4 user 391
Offline
Posts : 47
|
|
|
2009-Jan-31, 07:15 PM
|
30/01/2009 Progress (2 Days)
A)0 Bets A) 0 Bets
B)11 Bets 0 wins B) 17 Bets 0 wins
C) 0 Bets C) 6 Bets
31/01/2009 Progress 3 Days
A)4 Bets 0 Wins A)4 Bets 0 return
B) 24 Bets 1 Win $22BF B) 41 Bets 22 return
C)25 Bets 1 Win $75BF C) 31 Bets 75 Return
01/02/2009 4 Days
A) No Bets A) 4 bets 0 return
B) 16 Bets B)57 Bets 22 Return
C) No Bets C)31 Bets 75 return
02/02/09 5 Days
A)No Bets A)4 Bets 0 Return
B) 9 Bets 1Win $35 BF B) 66 Bets 57 Return
C) No Bets C) 31 Bets 75 Return
03/02/09 6 days
A)No Bets A) 4 Bets 0 Return
B) 7 Bets 0 Wns B) 73 Bets 57 Return
C) No Bets C) 31 Bets 75 Return
04/02/09 7 Days
A) no bets A) 4 bets 0 return
B) 19 Bets 0 wins B) 92 Bets 57 Return
C) No Bets C) 31 Bets 75 Return
05/02/09 8 Days
A) 0 Bets A)4 Bets 0Return
B)12 Bets 0 return B) 104Bets 57Return
C) 0 Bets C 31 Bets 75Return
06/02/09 9 Days
A)0 Bets A)4 Bets 0Return
B) 13Bets 1Win $28 B) 117 85Return
C) 0 Bets C) 31Bets 75Returns
07/02/09 10Days
A)1 Bet O Wins A)5 Bets 0 Return
B) 8Bets 0 Wins B125 Bets 85 Return
C) 24 Bets 1 Wins $36 C)55 Bets 111 Return
08/02/09 11Days
A)0Bets A)5 Bets 0 Return
B)16 Bets 1Win $36 B)141 121 Return
C) 11 Bets 0 Win ( MR Transferred) C) 66 Bets 111 Return
I included today's Caulfield as it should've been a Saturday Metro. I was betting. So far it's looking like the following.
|
|
|
|
« Last Edit: 2009-Feb-16, 06:00 PM by Mantaray »
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Mantaray
Class 4 user 391
Offline
Posts : 47
|
|
|
2009-Feb-08, 10:08 PM
|
Hi everyone.
As a bit of a newbie, I haven't been updating this thread the best way. If you read the post above you'll have the past 11 days. In future I'll use the "reply" option rather than "modify" so that the updates get somewhere up the top for your perusal. .
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Mantaray
Class 4 user 391
Offline
Posts : 47
|
|
|
2009-Feb-10, 09:39 AM
|
09/02/09 12 Days
A) No Bets A) 5 Bets
B)17 Bets No Win B)158 Bets 121 Return
C)No Bets C) 66Bets 111 Return
10/02/09 13 Days
A) No Bets A)5 Bets
B )5 Bets No Win B) 163Bets 121Return
C No Bets C) 66Bets 111Return
11/02/09 14 Days
A) No Bets A)5 Bets
B)14 Bets B) 177 Bets 121 Return
C) No Bets C) 66Bets 111Return
12/02/09 15 Days
A) No Bets A) 5 Bets
B) 13 Bets B) 190 Bets 121Return
C No Bets C) 66Bets 111Return
13/02/09 16Days
A) No Bets A) 5 Bets
B ) 4 Bets B)194 Bets 121Return
C)No Bets C) 66Bets 111Return
|
|
|
|
« Last Edit: 2009-Feb-13, 07:13 PM by Mantaray »
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Mantaray
Class 4 user 391
Offline
Posts : 47
|
|
|
2009-Feb-15, 01:41 PM
|
14/02/09 Day17 (A+C 3 actual Racedays only)
A) 3 Bets A) 8 Bets
B) 5 Bets B)199 Bets 121Return
C)22 Bets C) 88 Bets 111Return
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Max Manewer
Group 2 user 414
Offline
Posts : 4998
|
|
|
2009-Feb-15, 02:31 PM
|
Manta.....your not the the one that got " Our Steve ", so I'll give you a leg up here....Back those roughies on the wet, fields above average, and in races past the mile, and you're starting AT the advantage line.
Go the other way and try them in sprints, on firm ground and smallish fields, you're more chance of beating Usain Bolt in a 100m foot race ! Just facts and figures.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Mantaray
Class 4 user 391
Offline
Posts : 47
|
|
|
2009-Feb-15, 03:36 PM
|
MAX MANEWER. I'll look into it. Can you post a little more, in the other thread about roughies...Thanks.
Meanwhile. turnaround in system B) today. I know all will be cheering!!
15/02/09 18 Days
B)24 Bets 2 Wins $40+ $55 (BF) B) 223Bets 216 return
16/02/09 19 Days
B) 8 Bets B)231 Bets 216 Return
17/02/09 20Days
B) 4 Bets B) 235 216Return
18/02/09 21Days
B) 10 Bets B) 245 216Return
19/02/09 22Days
B) 9 Bets B) 254 216Return
A little info. I'm not bothering updating A+C Sun-Fri anymore, since they are both Saturday/Public Holiday systems will update Sats/PHs only
With the BF prices, as I'm not betting A or B, I'm using a "possible price"; where some/most money was being matched. This is not "At the Top" but a few ticks below. For C) I'm using the price I actually get. The "most money" approach implies you probably could've matched more I would risk when betting new system trials..
Huge fluctuations are common at BF, so this looks fair for A+B.
|
|
|
|
« Last Edit: 2009-Feb-20, 10:47 AM by Mantaray »
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Mantaray
Class 4 user 391
Offline
Posts : 47
|
|
|
2009-Feb-21, 05:20 PM
|
20/02/09 23Days
B) 13 Bets B)267Bets 216Return
21/02/09 24Days
A) 5 Bets A) 13Bets (4 Racedays)
B) 6Bets B) 273Bets 216Return
C)32 Bets 2 Wins $60+$65 C)120Bets 236Return (4 Days)
22/02/09 25Days
B) 22 Bets B)295Bets 216Return
23/02/09 26Days
B) 5Bets B) 300Bets 216Return
24/02/09 27Days
B) 6Bets B) 306Bets 216Return
Winners in C) 21/02 MR6, BR7
|
|
|
|
« Last Edit: 2009-Feb-25, 10:17 AM by Mantaray »
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Mantaray
Class 4 user 391
Offline
Posts : 47
|
|
|
2009-Feb-28, 05:24 PM
|
25/02/09 28Days
B)7 Bets B) 313Bets 216 Return
26/02/09 29 Days
B) 4 Bets B) 317Bets 216 Return
27/02/09 30Days
B)9Bets B) 326Bets 216Return
28/02/09 31Days
A) 7 bets A) 20Bets No return
B)23Bets 1Win $80BF B) 349B 296 Return
C)24Bets C) 144 Bets 236 Return
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Big Wheel
VIP Club
Group 2 user 269
Offline
Posts : 2147
|
|
|
2009-Feb-28, 05:31 PM
|
Manteray  is all that, are you winning or arnt you is what we want to know |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
