Racehorse TALK

     

        God ...... Struth ........bless your soul...

At least put in a more reader friendly format     

Big Wheel. Are you winding me up? System C),  the one I'm betting , is now 144 Out(was 120) for 236 Back. I'll leave it to you to decide if + 116 (now +92)  Units should be considered  as "winning".

 Hi everyone else.  I asked you to all make comments elsewhere, so we don't have to wade through loads of stuff to get to the guts of it. Especially as today is one which shows that patience really is a virtue. So..to refresh your memories.

There are three selection methods.

A) All First Start Horses at Metros on Saturday or Public Holidays (1 small filter)
B) All first starters NOT at Metros on Saturdays and Public Holidays (no filters)
C)The "System" as explained in the First Post 29th January (Complicated)

So today system B) has a $300 BF (could've easily been $500) winner.  See Best Tote Seymour Race 4 $113, to confirm.

     1/03/09                                                 32 Days
 A) No Bets                                  A) 20 Bets 0 Return  ( -20 = -100%)
 B) 22 Bets 1 winner $300           B)361 Bets 596 Return(+235 = + 65%)
 C) No Bets                                  C)144 Bets 236 Return(+92 = +64%)

OldLarsy.  Do you mean the posts, or the system, isn't user friendly? Most have told me that  "wallet-friendly" is the most important requirement! But I'm willing to listen to any suggestions..

Overall 525 Units out; 832 back. Only about 307 (-5% BF Comm) units up after a month.  If you are a $10 bettor then it's less than $700 per week, but still it's not too bad..  I will continue for a few more weeks. Bye

Well, you read about yesterday's boilover. First race of the day today Terang Race 1 First starter rockets home at $47.50 Best tote.. Easily got at  $90-$100 Betfair.  The fav at  <$2 (ie odds-on) was also a First Starter. Huhh??

Will update at day's end.

Hard to fathom some of these instances, eh ? You would think it was bloody legless being laid at those odds in a 7-horse field, at first run.

What surprises me MAX, is that enough money is put on the fav to push it under evens, even though it's never had a race!! Who would risk big bucks on these types of animals..and why?

On Supertab ($1.60 the win) it means about $28,000 (of $45K) was on that untried..unproven #7, while only about $1200 found it's way onto the winner, an equally untried and unproven performer. #7 gets 4th in the seven-horse field. In NSW it was about $13,000 vs $370!!!

What did the favourite backers think they knew?? Got an idea?

Update.  2/2/09                                   33 Days
            B) 11Bets 1 Win $90         B)372 Bets 686 Return (-BF Comm)

Manta, I have some figures on the first starters....

Metro lose about 20% on turnover $20 plus victab price
Country/prov lose close to 30% same deal, however that figure improves somewhat if the bookies have them substantially shorter than the tote.

MAX. Going on the VicTab LOT of 20% makes me think Best Totes would be profitable as longies often vary by much more than 20% on the other TABS . Some of the time VicTab would be the best price but the rest of the time you will overcome the 20% deficit.

As for BF, you would be CERTAIN to always get  +20%. 100-200%  is almost standard with them.

BTW. Craiglea Convict just arrived Rockhampton race 3 at 12-1 SP/$30.90 Vic/$36.50 NSW best TAB/$70 BF. Cheers.

Update.(No more FSs today)
        3/3/09                               34Days
    B) 12Bets                         B) 384Bets  756Return.

Out of interest I went back and added up all Best Totes: 9 wins = 375 Return

Quick update.
             4/03/09                           35Days
         B)20bets                            B)404Bets 736 Return

             5/ 03/09                           36Days
          B)9Bets 1 Win $100           B) 413 Bets 836Return

            6/03/09                              37Days
           B)13Bets                            B)426 Out  836Return

            7/03/09                                38Days
           A)7 Bets                             A) 27 Out  0 Return
           B)19 Bets                           B) 445Out 836 Return
           C) 38Bets                           C)182Out 236 Return

             8/03/09                                 39Days
             B) 9Bets                             B) 454 Out 836Return

             9/03/09 (Adelaide Cup)           40Days
            A) 9 Bets                              A)36Out 0Return
            B)1Bet                                  B) 455 Out 836 Return
            C) 14 Bets 1Win $85            C) 196Bets 321Return


B) At this point Best Tote Return = 441 Return.

Clarification; Today was a "Public Holiday" Raceday where S,M,B  put races on in conjunction with the Adelaide Cup. Thus it counts as a"metro" raceday. Systems A) and C) were activated along with the usual "everyday"  system B)
                                                 

Still a low sample. Obviously more encouraging to be winning, but statistically not enough turnover at those big odds to hang your hat on. If you can elaborate the rules for the non-first starter system I might be able to run it through historical results to see how it stacks up.

Update.    10/03/09                        41 Days
            B)21 Bets 1 win $180       B)476 Out 1016 Return (BF)

Winner Warrnambool 4:  Best Tote $79

                 11/02/09                      42Days
               B)9Bets  1Win $28          B) 485Out 1044Return

                     
B) Best Tote Now 485 Out 520 Return = 8% POT (11wins).

Today's winner (11th March)) Murray Bridge Race 1 is interesting..in a way.
It got to $18 Best Tote but over 30s BF. I've included it in the BF Running Total Return but not in the Best Tote total

            12/03/09                          43 Days
   B) 10 Bets                            B)465 Out 836Return

            13/03/09                           44 Days
    B) 10 Bets                            B) 475Out 836Return

             14/03/09                           45Days
     A)7Bets                                A)43Out No Return
      B)19ets                               B)496 Out 836 Return
      C)34Bets                             C)230Out 321Return

             15/03/09                            46 Days
       B) 25 bets                             B) 521Out  836Return

              16/03/09                            47Days
         B)11 Bets 2 wins 26+54       B) 532Out 926Return

              17/03/09                             48 Days
          B)9Bets                                 B) 541Out 926Return

               18/03/09                             49days
           B)16 Bets                              B) 557Out 926Return

                19/03/09                             50Days
            B) 8 Bets                                B) 565 Out 926Return

                 20/03/09                            51Days
              B)8 Bets                               B)  573Out 926Return

   B) Best Tote 573Out 570 Return  . Betfair 50% better

My conclusions; 51 Days  shows an average number of Bets of
      A) 8  RaceDays:   5-6   Bets per day
      B)51 RaceDays: 11-12  Bets per day
      C) 8 racedays :   30      Bets per day

Add 20% as a buffer = Expected Bets  A)  7  Per Day
                                                             B)14  Per day
                                                             C)36 Per day

I will now track winners ONLY, since I can now "guesstimate' how many bets will be needed over any given period.  We can now see  that after 10 Racedays (for example) you would expect 70 system A) bets; if $70 worth of winners  have arrived you are close to even.

You would expect 140 system B) bets in 10 Racedays. Have $140 worth of winners arrived?

You would expect 360 System C) bets.  Have $360 worth of winners arrived?

Best Tote is easy to look up on Ozeform.  Anyone interested in Betfair,  add 50%.

Of course..in practice BF requires more active monitoring than the totes which are "set and forget" (up to a point).  I'll report results from time to time.

Couldn't believe the price this was paying. Speculated it might be a chance by just looking at it's t/d and win % form, ended up starting at $131.80/$13.20! Backed it the place but was almost sick when it loomed up to win.......

#2 SPIRITWITHIN

Won over: 1730 (1), 1750 (1), 2100 (1), 2130 (3), 2150 (2), 2170 (1), 2536 (3)

Total 24 12 0 1
2536m 4 3 0 0
GLOUCESTER PARK 17 7 0 1

Ended up running second.....