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Racehorse TALK
Racehorse TALK » Racing Talk » Vic Gallops » Topic: Newby Suggestion
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Author Topic: Newby Suggestion  (Read 3674 times)
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maccamax
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Original Post 2009-Feb-04, 08:03 PM

Hi ...thank you for having me ....with over 60 years of being a racing man ....raced one we bred by an accident out of a mare we bought for $200 ....only to see her produce prolific winner Seargeant Sam and later a blacktype winner and placing , plus other wins on 3 main Sydney courses......I got out due to what I felt was owners being cannon fodder for tipping Jockeys and trainers ....
 That said , many a step by step statement as to everyones views on how to make racing pay.
I do well......learnt the tough way .......so if we ask the questions , I'm sure the people on the forum will do their best to provide an opinion [ everyone is entitled to one ]............So I pose the first question ???.
WHY does 95% of punters lose.......and what are you doing about it ? .....if you are one of them .
With todays opportunities by way of Betfair  type exchanges  and some competition to yesteryears Pirates that losing percentage SHOULD NOT BE ...... lets see what we can do about it .
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Da Judge
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2009-Feb-04, 08:20 PM

think its nearer to 99% that lose macca,but instead of asking losers to tell you why they lose,wouldn't it be better to tell them how you win?
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Max Manewer
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2009-Feb-04, 08:41 PM

What surprises me macca is the fact you or I can win......there is still value there to be had. I am working toward vacuuming up as much of it as my greedy little mind can manage........
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wily ole dog
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2009-Feb-04, 08:45 PM

I lose because of a lack of discipline not judgement.

I also don't have the funds to punt with an effective strategy so when i build a small bank i usually end up chasing a bigger win. If I lose my small bank, it doesn't matter

Also, trying to not have an opinion on every race is hard so I guess that comes to a lack of strategy as well.

How many times have we had $20 on our best best because it's the first race of the day and end up having $50 on something late in the day Sad
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maccamax
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2009-Feb-04, 09:10 PM

95% is the accepted figure.
Your  reversal suggestion would make make me a know all ..I did put 3 lays on today [all got beat. 2 at about $.4.50 ...1 at 10/1 ] ....Like I said = step by step=
First i would suggest ..lack of self control....
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maccamax
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2009-Feb-04, 09:21 PM

yes yes yes ...not betting to a bank........if somone can increase their bank by 3% a day ..
Bank doubles in 24 days ......place tote gem....
 Ask yourself ....How much can I afford to lose a week for my racing interest/entertainment.
$40.....???.......thats $2000 in a year if you can break even ....But .....Small fish grow to sharks quicker than you think .......Try the 24 day plan for a start .....double it but keep putting your winnings aside AND the $40 dollars as you build ......Never forget ....2 good place tote bets on raceday [say $20] are better than 40 x $1 hits at a trifecta or other miracle .
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OldLarsy
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2009-Feb-04, 09:24 PM

I'm in Wily's boat, trying to get rich quick.
The other week I decided to get on Betfair and lay dogs that couldn't run a place let alone win and managed 22 from 23.
It didn't matter what price, I was just aiming to win $15 per race.
It worked but i've stopped doing it for some unknown reason.
I noted your 3 lays today macca and laid Zeta, thanks.
I've made up my mind to 'lay only' on Betfair from here on.
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Hamish Crayfish
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2009-Feb-04, 09:43 PM

Interesting, OL, that you have decided to "lay only" on Betfair. Do you plan to "Back" through another outlet? If so it would be strange if you did not jump on Betfair "overs" when they arose.
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Da Judge
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2009-Feb-04, 09:50 PM

in essence you backed a 1.50 winner,thats if you went all up your lays,and you use that to show your ability,thats impressive
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OldLarsy
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2009-Feb-04, 09:50 PM

Hamish, i've been known to go against my plans before, of course I will 'back' if something I like is overs, however if I like something, i'd prefer to lay 2 or 3 others in the race which gives mine or the rest of the field a chance of beating them.
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Da Judge
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2009-Feb-04, 09:54 PM

more chance of collecting larsy,but thats reflected in your potential return
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OldLarsy
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2009-Feb-04, 09:58 PM

80% of my investments are on sport these days
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arakaan
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2009-Feb-04, 10:02 PM

It didn't matter what price, I was just aiming to win $15 per race.


OL and anyone else laying on betfair,

laying to win a certain amount is the wrong way to do it. You should have a total lay risk amount(say $100/$200, a % of  your bank, whatever) and lay to that figure whether your laying a 2's on shot or a 20/1 shot.
wink
« Last Edit: 2009-Feb-04, 10:04 PM by arakaan » Logged
Hamish Crayfish
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2009-Feb-04, 10:07 PM

All lays are different to me. Some are just incredible unders but are likely winners. Others are things that IMO just can't win and I tend to hit them harder. Having % of funds might suit some, but not this little black lamb !
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Wenona
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2009-Feb-04, 10:53 PM

OL and anyone else laying on betfair,

laying to win a certain amount is the wrong way to do it. You should have a total lay risk amount(say $100/$200, a % of  your bank, whatever) and lay to that figure whether your laying a 2's on shot or a 20/1 shot.



I agree.

For those interested I have attached a worksheet that calculates the optimal amount of your bank to risk and the stake required from the bettor for you to have that risk, based on:

i) The price you lay the horse
ii) What the horses true price should be (ie it's true prob of winning n a 100% market)
iii) Your Betfair commission
iv) Bank size

The calculation is the 'Kelly' figure.

With all horse betting, as true probabilities are not precisely calculable, it is probably best to use a proportion of the Kelly figure. e.g. 50%

Another way is to assume a standard conservative edge across all your lays and risk the same percentage on each bet.

I do the latter and risk around 12% of my bank with each lay.















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