Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
2012-May-27, 04:09 PM

Login with username, password and session length

Racehorse TALK

Pages: 1 [2]   Go Down
 
Author Topic: Schedule of Betting Deductions Bias  (Read 1925 times)
0 Members and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.
westie
Editor
Group 1
user 8
Offline Offline
Posts: 9138
Original Post 2009-Feb-19, 05:36 PM

Reply
Recommend Message 1 of 49 in Discussion
From: NineMSN NicknameGrega9430(Original Message) Sent: 22/10/2007 4:43 AM

The Schedule of Betting Deductions which apply after a late scratching are heavily biased towards the Bookmaker. They are 10% higher than if you placed the same bet on a TAB than when a Bookmaker is betting at a market percentage of 117% (equivalent to the TAB with a 14.5% win commission), and it gets progressively worse as their betting market percentage increases.

In saturdays Caulfield Cup where the Bookmakers were betting at 119% on start time the subsequent scratchings and biased deductions basically changed this to a 129% market whereas the TAB stays at 117%.

A 117% market equates to a punter getting $1.71 about either Heads or Tails if the event was a coin toss, compared to $2.00 in a 100% market, or in a tote pool if there was no commission. In a 129% market you are effectively taking $1.55 about a true even money chance. There is a significant difference between $1.71 and $1.55 for an even money chance.

To provide an example of this bias, consider the following race with six runners and the Bookmakers and TAB's betting an identical 117% market;

 No.

Units Invested

Dividend

 1

 4,275

 $2.00

 2

 1,145

 $7.47

 3

 1,145

$7.47

 4

 1,145

$7.47

 5

 1,145

$7.47

 6

 1,145

$7.47

 Total

 10,000

 Commission @ 14.5%

 1,450

 Net Pool

 8,550

Now with the even money favourite scratched and no new investment it becomes;

 No.

Units Invested

Dividend

 1

Scratched

 2

 1,145

$4.28

 3

 1,145

 $4.28

 4

 1,145

$4.28

 5

 1,145

 $4.28

 6

 1,145

 $4.28

 Total

 5,725

 Commission @ 14.5%

 830

Net Pool

 4895

If you had backed the subsequent winner on the TAB you collect $4.28 which is equivalent to a betting deduction of 42.7 cents in the dollar. The official deduction when an even money winner is scratched is 47 cents in the dollar, therefore if you had backed the subsequent winner with a Bookmaker your equivalent dividend is $3.96.

In Saturdays Caulfield Cup the deductions were 39c ($2.40) Maldivian and 9c ($10) Eskimo Queen. The Bookies were betting at 119% (fair dinkum) and  IAS's thursday night market was at 130% (criminal). Master O'Reilly was $9.50 and with subsequent deductions this ends up $4.94 whereas he paid $5.30, $5.60 and $5.20 on the three TAB's.

Punters ripped off to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars.

(Whilst it is highly unlikely that I am incorrect , you never know, therefore I would appreciate it if someone would check both the logic and calc's)

Logged
 
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1
user 285
Offline Offline
Posts: 23915
2010-Dec-13, 08:42 PM

Well, we can but hope.

I'm expected a scale of deductions that varies with the percentage of the market.  Hope they go up to 200%.

That would be an improvement, but it doesn't the anomaly of the deduction being based on the price of the SCR at the time of the SCRATCHING.  To be fair, it should be based on the price of the SCR at the time of our BET.
Logged
Mick
Listed
user 491
Online Online
Posts: 328
2010-Dec-13, 08:55 PM

Well, we can but hope.

I'm expected a scale of deductions that varies with the percentage of the market.  Hope they go up to 200%.

That would be an improvement, but it doesn't the anomaly of the deduction being based on the price of the SCR at the time of the SCRATCHING.  To be fair, it should be based on the price of the SCR at the time of our BET.


The scale of deduction should relate back to a 120% market.If the market % at the time of scratching is 240% the deduction should be 50% of the present scale of deductions.
Logged
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1
user 285
Offline Offline
Posts: 23915
2010-Dec-13, 08:57 PM

The current scale is based on 120% or thereabouts, isn't it?
Logged
Mick
Listed
user 491
Online Online
Posts: 328
2010-Dec-13, 09:41 PM

The current scale is based on 120% or thereabouts, isn't it?

The problem is that at the time of a scratching,particularly at provincial tracks,the % could be in excess of 200%.Some 6x1 chances early in betting are in reality 20x1 chances at post time.Stewards then rule a !6% deduction ,when the true ruling should be 5%.This is where the punter is getting touched.
Logged
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1
user 285
Offline Offline
Posts: 23915
2010-Dec-13, 09:42 PM

Yeah, well that was exactly the point I made in the my post at 8:42 pm.
Logged
Mick
Listed
user 491
Online Online
Posts: 328
2010-Dec-13, 09:47 PM

Yeah, well that was exactly the point I made in the my post at 8:42 pm.

Could not agree more.Try telling that to most racing officials.Ask them about betting %,you get a blank stare.
Logged
Thesmartman
Group 2
user 953
Offline Offline
Posts: 1741
2010-Dec-14, 04:52 PM

A good point that you make DD, cos at the time you made the bet you (presumably) were happy with the price.  It is rather frustrating cos the TAB will argue that their could have been a deluge of money for some other runner in that race which adversely affects the market.

People will know plenty more than me on this, but does the TAB have to keep its market between a certain percentage at all times?

Logged
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1
user 285
Offline Offline
Posts: 23915
2010-Dec-14, 05:31 PM

The prices displayed are on a fixed commission of around 15% (WIN).  As we all know the dividend shown is rounded down to 10c.

So, depending on the price of the winner, and the impact of rounding on the dividend paid (vs the true dividend) up to another 2% or so could be knocked off as "commission".
Logged
Arsenal
VIP Club
Group 1
user 194
Offline Offline
Posts: 6058
2010-Dec-18, 10:19 AM

No word from the brains trust at the ARB......... still mulling it over in private ............... rant........although Ray Murrihy  recently interviewed by Steve Hewlitt indicated it's ready for release. chin

Possibly requires some tick of approval from Governments if State Racing Acts require any amendment and unless done by Regulation will be delayed until Parliaments resume in the new year.
Logged
Arsenal
VIP Club
Group 1
user 194
Offline Offline
Posts: 6058
2011-Jan-29, 07:59 AM

FInally got an answer in the form of email attachments which is beyond my limited ability to post in intelligible form.

Not having had the chance to go into the detail provided fully it looks like what we'll get is the  market % will be restored to what it was before the scratching. chin

No change to the punters' stake being excluded like the UK scheme. Thumbs Down

Have sought help from the MAN to post for all to see.

* ARB Letter - Betting deductions 110111.doc (92 KB - downloaded 75 times.)
* Attachment A.DOC (32.5 KB - downloaded 118 times.)
* Attachment B.DOC (68 KB - downloaded 205 times.)
* Attachment C.DOC (41.5 KB - downloaded 72 times.)
* Schedule 1.doc (77.5 KB - downloaded 68 times.)
« Last Edit: 2011-Jan-30, 05:33 PM by MagiC~* » Logged
Arsenal
VIP Club
Group 1
user 194
Offline Offline
Posts: 6058
2011-Feb-28, 09:38 PM

R1 at EF on Saturday had 2 late scratchings#2 Tax Evader 6.5 was withdrawn at the barrier and #4 Craiglea Romeo 15 was declared a non runner after the race.

Stewards ruleddeductions of 14c win and 13c place to begin with but after the second one came out the deductions were 20c win and 13c place.

Race  1      2Y HCP     Distance:  1300 metres     Track:  Dead     Time:  1-18.65     Sectional:  600/35.31     Margins:  Head x 1 3/4 Len     
 1   Kahui   7   1   54.5      J Taylor   Pat Duff   $32000   $21000    $3.20  Jet Spur   Tessa Bianca (NZ) 
 2   Miss Leibert   10   7   53.5      P Hammersley   Tony Gollan   $10000   $6000   0.2   $21   Falvelon   Stravain Lady 
 3   True Blitz   3   2   56.5      D Browne   Ray McCall   $5000   $3000   2.0   $2.70F  Ferocity   Coolataq 
 4   Avgas   14   3   53.5      R Wiggins   David Murphy   $2000      3.0  $71  Shovhog   Rawing Trade 
 5   Flammable   1   6   57   - 2.0   Michael Palmer   Mark F Webb   $1000    3.2    $6.50   Ferocity   Enlightenment (USA) 
 6   Class of Gold   13   4   53   - 1.0   L P Rolls   John Wallace         4.0  $31          7   Bevico Girl   11   5   53      B El-Issa   Robert Heathcote         4.3   $5       
 8   Black Banner   12   8   53      J Holder   David Peoples         11.0  $201          SB   Craiglea Romeo   4   3   56      K Wharton   Peter Fleming                   
 SB   Tax Evader   2   4   56.5   - 3.0   N Yamada   Michael Nolan                   
 SCR   Dana Prince   5   2   55.5      C Munce   Tony Crane                   
 SCR   Hopefully   9   14   53.5      A Best   Mark F Webb                   
 SCR   Macca's Express   8   11   54.5         Michael Nolan                   
 SCR   Stag   15   10   53      M Hellyer   Robert Bradshaw                   
 SCR   Windsplitter   6   9   55      J Bowditch   Noel J Doyle 
                 
 Trying to compare the above with would be the case when the new algorythmn system outlined earlier comes in is too big a headache for me as the market shown on the TV monitors before the #2 was scratched was 124%  but applying the new system  with the 2 deductions  I worked out the market to be 151%........surely that can't be right.

If Grega is around he might know better. thumbsup

Logged
Pages: 1 [2]   Go Up
 
 
Jump to:  

 - Links - Luxbet Horse Racing Betting - Racenet - Horse Racing - Noms and Acc - QTAB - TAB Horse Racing Betting - Racing and Sports - Horse Racing Only
Powered by SMF 1.1.15 | SMF © 2011, Simple Machines
TinyPortal v0.9.8 © Bloc | Adagio design by Bloc