2007 King George - #1 Horse Racing Forum in Australia for Race-Horse News

Hillbilly

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Original Post 2007-Jul-24, 07:39 PM

The weather looks to have hit the summer feature hard this year. Meetings are being called off daily due to the rain. A field lacking in class, depth and strength for the King George. The following is the thoughts of leading tipster Tom Segal from the Racing Post.

Not so zany to go with Youmzain at tempting 16-1

by Tom Segal
IT is the presence of Authorized at the head of the King George VI andQueen Elizabeth Stakes market that makes the race quite a nice proposition for an ante-post bet. If he runs, I don't think he's got any chance of winning, and my best guess is that we won't see him at Ascot after what can only be described as a lacklustre display in the Eclipse last time.

Sure, the winner Notnowcato may have stolen the race at Sandown, but I didn't think Authorized was anything like the horse we saw at York or at Epsom, because he was never travelling with the same fluency and power.

I thought George Washington would have gone past Peter Chapple-Hyam's colt if he had bothered to try, and the fact that Authorized struggled to beat Yellowstone, who had chased the pace for a couple of furlongs, strongly suggests this wasn't the horsewe saw in the Derby.

I can only assume he has a problem of some kind, or that he wasn't at home on the ground at Sandown, but last weekend the ground was pretty quick at Ascot and if we do have a drying week I can't believe Authorized will be winning.

The ground is going to be the key factor for the Ballydoyle raiding party, because on soft ground I would strongly fancy Soldier Of Fortune, while if the ground is quick he may not even run and Dylan Thomas will be the main fancy from the yard.

At this stage, we have to assume the ground is going to be on the fast side of good and, while that doesn't necessarily rule out Soldier Of Fortune, he was so impressive on heavy at the Curragh in the Irish Derby that you have to think that would be his preferred surface.

Whatever the underfoot conditions last time, I'm sure we saw a totally different Soldier Of Fortune to the one who ran in the Derby, but his price has collapsed in recent weeks and, on a totally different surface against older horses for the first time, I can't suggest backing him, considering he is not 100 per cent certain to line up.

I expect Dylan Thomas to start favourite, because his second to Manduro in the Prince of Wales's Stakes represents the best single piece of form this season.

The two of them ran right away from Notnowcato and, while the fast ground didn't suit the latter, it was still a top-class effort.

My slight reservation is his attitude, because both the last time and when he was beaten in the Tattersalls Gold Cup previously, I got the strong impression that Dylan Thomas wasn't putting it all in. He came to win both races but sort of hung fire, and he definitely hung in behind Manduro. That may not be a great issue on Saturday week, because this is probably a weaker-looking race than those he has been beaten in on his last two starts, but throw in the fact that 1m2f is probably his best trip and, at this stage, I would want to look elsewhere.

That is where the problems start, because I can't really find that many who are going to run, and it could be a six- or seven-runner field.

For example, Sixties Icon seems to have gone at the game, Ask has had his problems, and Mandesha looks to be going for the Nassau.

Maraahel looks a solid optionbut has tried Group 1 company many times, hasn't been good enough, and struggled in this race a year ago. In any case, if you fancy him then surely you have to be sweet on Scorpion, too.

Not only did Scorpion beat Maraahel in the Coronation Cup but hewent down by only a diminishing half-length when conceding the Stoute horse 5lb in the Hardwicke. Fast ground would bring them closer together, and of that pair Maraahel is more likely to run his race – but, in all honesty, I would be surprised if eitherwere good enough.

That really leaves only Youmzain, and at 16-1 he looks the value.

Don't forget he beat a Breeders' Cup winner in Red Rocks in the Voltigeur, was beaten only half a length by subsequent Arc winner Rail Link afterwards, and had no luck in running when a close third in Dubai on his comeback.

Nothing has gone right for him since then – he was held up off a slow pace in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last time – but 1m4f on decent ground is his cup of tea, and he has had a much quieter time than most this season.

At his best, he would be more than a match for nearly all of these.

Today's bets
Youmzain
King George VI and Queen Elizabeth advice
1pt win at 16-1 generally


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Hillbilly

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2007-Jul-28, 08:33 PM

Welcome to the Ascot Summer meeting. All we need to do now is find Summer. The highlight this afternoon is the King George but the race doesn't look as classy as some previous renewals. A genuine bunch of Gr1 horses nonetheless. Let's see if we can find the winner.

Winkfield Stakes ( Listed )

A decent looking two year old race to kick things off today. Plenty of winners engaged including some well bred types from top yards. The form around most of these is far from conclusive. Inclement weather of late has seen the formbook tossed out the window. Firestreak and Midships both looked fairly handy on debut but there might not be much between the pair. Both will be looking to prove themselves for much better contests. Always been plenty of wraps about for Unnefer but he has chinks and is a risk for mine. The going looks to suit him though. Montagne D'Or looks interesting. He's out of a half sister to Jeune and may find one or two of these too slick this afternoon. Certainly worth thought when the trips get longer. The one I'm quite keen on is Raven's Pass. Beat two stablemates and a handy bunch of also rans first time out. Backing up here after ten days and has the form rider engaged. May be a bit more professional than the others and looks decent value to boot.

Classified Stakes

The weight relief may be all that's required for the three year old here. This batch of youngsters has already proven their quality and the older horses engaged are fraught with danger. One Hour looked decent when allowed to lead two starts ago. Not as favourable when held up off a steady pace last time. A more positive riding performance today would put him right in the picture. The going may also suit this fellow a lot more than the majority of his opponents.

Bank Of Dubai Cup

No surprise to see some prominent owners from the Middle East lining up for this contest. Gongidas for the Godolphin camp and Al Khaleej for lesser known Mayoof Sultan look the standouts. Both are well in weight wise and middle draws should be fine going on recent evidence. The Illies looked a bolters chance for classy young rider William Buick but the ground may have gone against that fellow. Gate three is not looking the best of the draws either. Al Khaleej is my top pick. He was taken slowly last year and hit the track this season off a nice handicap mark. I think this son of Sakhee still has something more to give. Gongidas has been quite wayward so far, has the visor fitted for steering corretion and is fairly handicapped. He looks a tricky ride and I'd prefer him with McEvoy in the saddle.

King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes Gr1

If this was a Gr2 I'd say it was a fantastic contest. As it's a major Gr1 race the turnout is somewhat lacklustre. The field would have a "B" on their report card from me. Let's find the winner anyway. I only have two genuine chances in the race given the going being SOFT underfoot. Dylan Thomas is undoubtedly below his best on rain soaked turf. Maraahel always finds it too tough when facing Gr1 horses on level terms. This race looks no different from his many past opportunities at this level. He's not getting a five pound benefit today. Sergeant Cecil lacks the zip at this level. Laverock may have fluked a Gr1 victory against Manduro last year but this is another matter. Prince Forli is fairly consistent but lacks the class against Europe's better Gr1 performers. On the face of it I'm left with Scorpion and Youmzain. The latter needs pace on throughout while the former can make his own speed. Scorpion was undobtedly brought undone by the penalty last time and he should hold Maraahel today. Youmzain faired poorly in France when held up off a farcical leader pace. He had no hope there. A stronger gallop is expected today but the Coolmore pair are bound to set the tempo to suit themselves. I do expect Youmzain to present much closer to his peak this afternoon. If he gets the strong gallop he requires the odds are way too long. Him or Scorpion to take the race.

Best of luck to all having a nibble.


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westie

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2007-Jul-29, 06:12 PM

How did you go on the punt Hiily.


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Hillbilly

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2007-Jul-29, 07:08 PM

The ground dried out nicely at Ascot yesterday proving the fantastic drainage of the new surface.

Raven's Pass did the job with real style in the first race and he looks a real contender for the Classic races next season. Always travelling very strongly and minced the opposition at the business end. A lot more to come from him.

The trainer of Al Khaleej was quick to point out that he'd done little or no work since Newmarket and the colt did look less than 100% behind the gates. The son of Sakhee hit the front alittle soon and had little to offer when challenged. He can and probably will do better. There was a decent plunge late on The Illies ( dry ground really suited ) and that well weighted runner finished best under star apprentice William Buick to take the prize.

With the dry ground it became obvious before the King George that they'd all be chasing Dylan Thomas. He was easily best backed across the country and strolled up accordingly. The writng was on the wall a long way out in the race with stablemate Scorpion setting a most decent gallop in front. That pace was too hot for the front runners and eyes soon swept to the rear where Dylan Thomas was being tracked by Youmzain. The Mick Channon trained star tried to match the Coolmore runner but had little or no hope of passing the son of Montjeu.

A very decent afternoon.


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