Vastly varying forecasts for overnight rainfallIF Cheltenham's private weather forecaster John Kettley is correct, Cheltenham 2009 should open with ground no worse than soft with good to soft places. If the Met Office is proved accurate, underfoot conditions could become heavy.
As has often been the case in recent days, Kettley, who focuses solely on the racecourse's "microclimate", and the Met Office, which offers a more general assessment, on Monday provided different predictions for Tuesday morning's much-heralded bout of rain.
Kettley anticipated no more than 6mm of rain, but the Met Office believed that 15mm to 20mm was likely.
The raging winds that have been drying the course all day long had died down slightly by 9pm but not a drop of the forecast rain had arrived, although it had been overcast since 5pm.
Claisse, who reported good to soft conditions on the two main courses (GoingStick 6.
with good to soft, soft in places going (GoingStick 5.6) on the cross-country track, said at 4.45pm: "We've had a dry day and the forecast remains much as it has been. John Kettley is confident that we should expect only 5mm to 6mm of rain between 2am and 6am. If we getthat, I'm sure it will be good to soft, soft in places, if not soft, good to soft in places. If the Met Office is correct, we would have soft or heavy ground."
Claisse added: "I think they will get through the ground. It hasnot been raced on since March and the grass cover is good, albeit the grass growth is not as good as it was in 2008 or 2007."
Providing the Met Office view, a spokesman said on Monday afternoon: "There will be light rain from dusk today with heavier rain coming from midnight and lasting through to the small hours. In total, that could bring up to 15mm to 20mm of rain.
"It will become drier and brighter through Tuesday afternoon, but there will be a lot of cloud with the chance of light and patchy rain.
"Tuesday night will be dry, but clouds coming in off the Atlantic will bring outbreaks of light rain on Wednesday. Thursday is set to be a largely cloudy day with spells of drizzle and light rain. Friday should be the best day of the meeting with mainly dry conditions, light winds and some brightness."
Champion Hurdle-winning rider Philip Carberry described the racing surface as "good to soft but edging towards soft" after walking the track.
Trainer Paul Nolan called the track "yielding" and jockey Robbie Power used the word "dead".
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What will the official going be on Tuesday?
Betfair last matched prices at 6.50pm:
1.8 good to soft, 2 soft, 17 heavy, 50 good.
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