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Author Topic: A 100-1 bolter wins Grand National Racene  (Read 668 times)
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monologue
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Original Post 2009-Apr-05, 04:56 PM










A 100-1 bolter wins Grand National
Racenet
Sunday, 5 April 2009

Mon Mome became the longest priced Grand National winner in more than 40 years with a 12-length romp at Aintree.

The nine-year-old, trained by Venetia Williams and ridden by Liam Treadwell, won the famous English jumps race at 100-1.

One of a dozen horses in contention with two fences to jump, Mon Mome grabbed the lead from last year’s winner Comply Or Die before surging clear.

Mon Mome's victory meant Williams became only the second-ever female trainer to saddle a National winner after Jenny Pitman took the race in 1995 and 1983.

New Zealand-bred Zabenz, best remembered in Australia as the 2002 Grand National Hurdle winner before a sale to the United States, failed to negotiate a water obstacle, the 19th on the course, and didn’t finish.

A 200-1 chance, Zabenz was racing at the tail of the field when he fell.

Less than half of the 40-horse field failed to complete the gruelling course.

Courtesy of racenet.. Thumb Up
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Wenona
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2009-Apr-05, 07:16 PM

Was the winner well fancied last year?
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JWesleyHarding
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2009-Apr-05, 07:22 PM

100/1 seems very long odds to those accustomed to fields of 10-16, but in a field of 40 is he really such a bolter?
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arakaan
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2009-Apr-05, 07:39 PM

100/1 seems very long odds to those accustomed to fields of 10-16, but in a field of 40 is he really such a bolter?


yes.
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JWesleyHarding
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2009-Apr-05, 07:49 PM

So Ara there is no difference between 100/1 in a field of two, to 100/1 in a field of, say, 50?

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arakaan
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2009-Apr-05, 07:55 PM

So Ara there is no difference between 100/1 in a field of two, to 100/1 in a field of, say, 50?



depends on whether you consider the market on the events your talking about to be an accurate guide.

on a race as widely covered as the grand national it is true a 100/1 shot.

If the 2 horse race market could be considered likewise as an accurate guide, then there is no difference.
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JWesleyHarding
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2009-Apr-05, 08:12 PM


Is it as much a bolter in a big field as a small one?

100/1:there is no difference as to its bolterism?
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Wenona
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2009-Apr-05, 08:14 PM

It depends what you mean by an outsider.

If you mean any runner that is large odds say 33/1 or over, then there is no difference.

However, if you mean a horse that has a lessor chance than nearly all of the other runners in a race there is a big difference.

You could have a four horse race where the longest priced runner is 8/1. That runner is clearly the outsider and I think we would all use and accept that description.

Now in a field of forty, it could possibly be that the 100/1 chance may be the 25th longest priced runner in the race and there are fifteen runners at longer odds. Is that horse still an outsider. Well not as much of  an outsider as the 8/1 chance in a field of four if you choose the latter definition.

Likewise in a field of forty every runner could be 33/1, who is the outsider then, all of them?

I think that was the point that was being made.

« Last Edit: 2009-Apr-05, 09:09 PM by Wenona » Logged
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Steward
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2009-Apr-06, 12:20 AM

He was despised by one of the on field commentators who declared him and ONE other "completely of no hope".
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dubbledee
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2009-Apr-06, 09:46 PM

What a wonderful spectacle, and fine coverage from the UK team. Thumb Up

TAB Sportsbet weren't going to lose their shirt.  Field of 40, I got to 120% for the first 20, then stopped counting.
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