Racehorse TALK

I'm just about to watch the replays...what were the thoughts on Above Perfection...did she do enough to have some chance next week or is the winner the only horse capable of mixing it with the better fillies? And what happened to O'Shea's runners in the Knox?

Was on her on Saturday Steve - would be staggered if she could beat the winner home IMHO.

Gallica 

Just had a look Calgary...probably true, althought the way the G1's are going anything could bob up at odds. Thought the third placed Nothin' Leica Cat looked good hitting the line.

Most of those you'd expect to lead / race just off the pace have drawn right out:  Gallica (15), Gold Water (21), Purple (14), Above Perfection (22).  Given the short run to the first turn, you'd expect all (?) of these to surge from the gates.  So might be a rush early. 

But if the jocks can settle them (big IF), it could then be a slowly run race as not much else seems to race near the speed.  Maybe Miss Darcey will race more handy from 2, and maybe Miss Lily Rose (17) and Celtic Courage might take a chance from wide draws and push forward, but most others drop back with little pressure up front.

So it might be a risk backing something that gets too far back?  Early days, but on a dead 5, I don't mind Oliver getting Gallica to a 1-1 or 1-2 and being able to sprint off a moderate tempo.  Miss Darcey should also get a nice run on the rails, maybe 3 back?

Thoughts?

Allez Wonder with a better run will go well. Go Bart Go. I am still counting my cash from the 50s when she won two starts ago. Although my wife depleted it with houshold costs. Never celebrate too loudly when a horse wins at decent odds with your wife in the room. I keep telling myself that but it is hard to suppress the feeling when a good priced winner comes up.

 

Yeah mate you should try backing a 100-1 shot and bring home the exact amount of money to pay off the mortgage. Still frightens me to this day just thinking about it.

with a capacity field of 18,and 5 on pace/leaders in it,and drawn off the track,which i see most of them(the 5 on pacers) having no choice but to go forward from the jump,they will hit the 1st turn running,also remembering most of these fillies are not 2400m horses,so a lot won't settle early,i think waterhouses 2(gold water and above perfection)will be 1-2 around the 1st turn,if they can steady from the 1800m,i think gold water will be the one to beat,think she will sit on her stablemate,if the pace stays solid,i liked the way nothin leica cat hit the line in the adrian knox stks last saturday,hard race,gl all

Thanks Judge.  Agree that the way the leaders go from the first turn will determine the race.

I gather you were successful with this Mark?

i just doubt them slowing enough from the 1800,for the reason that there will be horses trapped 3-4 wide at that point,so won't suprise to see a few mid race moves due to that fact,trying to get in, will say one thing,they will be strung out over a fair way getting to the finish,will be some tired fillies

That's where we differ, and that's why I doubted my map - I just saw all bar maybe 6-7 horses happy to drop out and lope (ie. most come from 1st-4th or 12th), so didn't really see many getting caught 3-4 wide and hence no mid-race moves.  And if that happened, Blake and Nash could stack 'em up. 

But concede that's just too unlikely, hence my interest in your and other's maps.

What, did you owe $50 on the house?