Racehorse TALK

http://www.turfdeli.com.au


CAULFIELD : CAULFIELD GUINEAS - 9th Oct 2010

Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: CLEARING - Rail: TRUE


Betting Portfolio ($50):
Major rain storm midweek in Melbourne and just keep an eye on the weather heading into the weekend. Track was rated a SLOW(6) on Thursday , up to a DEAD(5) Friday morning – have seen a newspaper form guide reporting a DEAD(4) which appears to be incorrect. Still a few showers around on Friday and clearing up on Saturday so looks like we are still going to have a track with a bit of give in it. Should improve during the day, but expect a track that is probably going to be the worse side of dead.

Rail goes back to TRUE here, and we should get even racing, but there is always the danger on these feature days with the rail going back that the track will favour on pacers. Especially if we get a sunny drying day and the inside dries out quicker. Plenty to bet on today and suspect we are going to get a few value winners, so we are going to spread our money out over the day on quite a few long shots. Apart from these bets also interested in having something at odds on Race 2: 1-JUNGLE RULER and even Race 5: 5-ALCOPOP (but more the place).


BEST BET : Race 3: 2-PRECEDENCE $11 WIN
It’s a winner take all battle in this race to see who earns the right to go onto the Caulfield Cup. Our preference is for Bart’s one, his form this time in has been excellent. He is proven over a staying trip whereas his main rival 3-MOUDRE is not. Key to this race is actually the 4-STERLING PRINCE, who has no form but has been really running them along out in the lead in his races. He should turn this into a tough staying test and think that means you want to be on this one. Should win.

QUINELLA : Race 8: 1-MILITARY ROSE, 3-LONE ROCK x $5
QUINELLA : Race 8: 1-MILITARY ROSE # 5,9,12 x $3 = $9
Looks the one to beat in this race. Somehow the jockey last start managed to have her 3 wide around the home turn from barrier 2, whilst the winner has come through on the inside – from barrier 11. Fitter for the 2 runs in and can sit just off the speed here in a race where there seems to be awful lot of pace. Should be in the finish, just a question of whether something runs on hard. Value in the quinellas, take the 3-LONE ROCK who might get another dream split off a fast pace and the again with the value runners on with a fast tempo - the (5),(9), (12).

BEST EACH WAY : Race 6: 12-AVIENUS $5 EW
Yep – we are backing her again. Still really like the win in the Stock Stakes when she flattened and pinged for home. Tried to do the same last start, but was floundering soon after they turned – she obviously doesn’t run a strong 2000M. She looks really well suited here, nice barrier, can sit just behind the speed and put herself into the race. At the $21 on offer looks a solid each way bet.

BEST ROUGH : Race 7: 13-INTENCION, 8-SMOKIN' JOEY $2.50 EW
Have something on our two roughies in the feature race who might do something at odds. The 13-INTENCION is going to get a nice run from his barrier and has been thereabouts in the right form races. The 8-SMOKIN' JOEY represents the unknown factor in this race and if he gets a position from his outside barrier think he might put himself into this race.

LAY OF THE DAY : Race 4: 6-BLACK CAVIAR at around $1.80
OK initially this does look like we have totally lost all our senses. Boom sprint horse who is unbeaten in 5 starts and has huge raps on her. But she is coming back after a long break due to injury, 1st up, and she is meeting a pretty handy field here. Although she is undefeated, she hasn’t really been challenged in her races, Australia Stakes win was a gimme in a 5 horse field, didn’t beat much in her 1st 3 wins (but won easily). The only tough competitive race she was in, the Danehill was much closer and they were closing on her on the line. This field looks pretty competitive, the 1-MIC MAC and the 3-FIRST COMMAND in particular, but also be wary of the 3 x 3YOs at the bottom of the field, all of whom go OK. She is obviously outstanding, but she has also been placed extremely well and think it is worth taking her on today at the very short odds on offer.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
DAILY DOUBLE : Races 7,9 : 1,4,8,10,13/ 13,14 x 50 cents = $5.
Should be a decent daily double with two wide open races. Good chance of an upset result in the Caulfield Guineas, so take plenty of roughies. There are two value runners in a tough, even last leg the (13) and the (14), good chance the two leaders the (1) and (3) are going to knock each other out so look for something well drawn running on.


The Tips:

Race 1: 5-MAC CHOIS, 4-HAPPY TRAILS, 3-SLEEPERS
Race 2: 1-JUNGLE RULER, 12-DELTA GEE, 5-DRENALIN
Race 3: 2-PRECEDENCE, 3-MOUDRE, 5-LINTON
Race 4: 3-FIRST COMMAND, 6-BLACK CAVIAR, 1-MIC MAC
Race 5: 6-SO YOU THINK, 5-ALCOPOP, 2-WHOBEGOTYOU
Race 6: 12-AVIENUS, 7-SPACECRAFT, 1-MORE JOYOUS
Race 7: 13-INTENCION, 1-TOORAK TOFF, 8-SMOKIN' JOEY
Race 8: 1-MILITARY ROSE, 3-LONE ROCK, 9-ACROSS THE MOON
Race 9: 13-ORBITING BELLE, 14-FLOWERCHILD, 3-I’M A HUSSY



 

Good summary (although think he has been on the crazy juice re: Alcopop  )

Anyone who calls their bank a betting 'portfolio' is alright by me. 

Hey thanks Triple7 I feel so privileged to have my own thread.

Have a lot of fun with the website. Even spruced it up a bit this year so we look all fancy with graphics and slide shows and stuff : http://www.turfdeli.com.au

Caulfield Guineas Free Form Guide : http://www.turfdeli.com.au/CaulfieldGuineas2010.htm

Gave this forum a nice plug in this week's newsletter so hopefully will get some new members out of it : http://www.turfdeli.com.au/CaulfieldGuineasNewsletter2010.htm

The Betting Porftfolio has managed 8 weeks for 6 profits, 2 returns and 0 wipe outs in an effort that can only be described as "utterly unsustainable"

Caulfield Cup Free Form Guide and Tips
- with massive critical form guide on the Caulfield Cup.

http://www.turfdeli.com.au/CaulfieldCup2010.htm

Caulfield Cup newsletter for a laff.
http://www.turfdeli.com.au/CaulfieldCupNewsletter2010.htm

congratulations Turf Deli with your effort on the weekend.

Great return from the Quinella in race 3. 

After a rather successful and most likely unrepeatable spring we are doing a short sharp Melbourne Autumn campaign.

Free form guide and critical analysis for Oakleigh Plate and Blue Diamond
http://www.turfdeli.com.au/BlueDiamondStakes2011.htm

Blue Diamond newsletter with lots of gags at the expense of 2YO racing
http://www.turfdeli.com.au/BlueDiamondStakesNewsletter2011.htm

i enjoy mine immensely especially as Racenet is now charging for basically the same sort of comment.

will be interesting the results spruiked today in the next email......

The Tips:

Race 1: 4-UTAH SAINTS, 3-ÉCLAIR MYSTIC, 1-STIRLING GROVE
Race 2: 8-VESPER, 5-DOWN UNDER BOY, 7-PORT VELL
Race 3: 4-MISS ELVEE, 2-ZELSNITZ, 8-BOOKLET
Race 4: 1-ALMINDORO, 5-ELUSIVE KING, 4-MEAISIN
Race 5: 1-WHOBEGOTYOU, 8-MORE JOYOUS, 5-DOUBTFUL JACK
Race 6: 7-AVENUE, 6-STAR WITNESS, 2-FIRST COMMAND
Race 7: 4-DELAGO'S LAD, 1-SEPOY, 14-HALLOWELL BELLE
Race 8: 9-LINTON, 12-LORD PYRUS, 2-HEART OF DREAMS
Race 9: 9-SIMPLY PUT, 6-RED FLAIR, 10-PERFECT HOSTESS

not real flash imo but still enjoy getting the emails.

a 30% profit for me today btw.

loved this after last week...  

The only plus is that we didn't get sucked into following those short priced runners from the Lloyd Williams stable. In the last race 15-STUDLEY PARK has started an ludicrous W=$1.50, and ended up running a well beaten 4th. We have sent a suggestion off to the Prime Minister that instead of a flood levy, the federal government could just collect money off these punters who keep backing this stable's horses at super short odds - obviously they have loads of money they don't really need.



gold!!

i always thought every punter knew this as one of the commandments.

Hey Shaun,

Always try and be accurate and honest about our results - when they are crap we fully admit it.

Last week they were defnitely ordinary. Actually thought yesterday's were OK - there were 5 quinellas there in the selections from the 9 races. Just not a huge fan of tipping short priced favourites all the time.

We squeezed an teeny weeny profit in our suggested bets with something on the last quinella

BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 9-SIMPLY PUT $8 WIN
QUINELLA : Race 9: 9-SIMPLY PUT, 6-RED FLAIR x $3
QUINELLA : Race 9: 9-SIMPLY PUT, 10-PERFECT HOSTESS x $3
This one is going along really well and strikes a very winnable race here. Has race fitness – and more importantly form on most of these. Ran on extremely well last start behind some smart ones when was dropped back in distance. Up to the 1400M today suits a lot better. Probably wants some speed and wants them to be running on, but extremely keen today at around the $10. Should get $20 or so for the quinella too in a even field, so let’s do that instead of backing the place. Actually this is probably the one we are keenest on for the day, so make sure you leave something in the bank for the last race.

Free form guide and critical analysis for the Australian Guineas :
http://www.turfdeli.com.au/AustralianGuineas2011.htm

Australian Guineas Newletter :
http://www.turfdeli.com.au/AustralianGuineasNewsletter2011.htm

Happy 50th Birthday to the TAB - which we suspect is roughly the age of some of their computer systems.

good luck guys...i really do enjoy your work.
the more info the better IMO.

OK, so we are back again for yet ANOTHER spring campaign.

Actually in a way it is good that racehorse talk moved over from the old MSN community forum, I would hate for 12 years of history to come up on this thread. Would make me feel very , very old indeed.


Free form guide and newsletter for the Underwood Stakes :
http://www.turfdeli.com.au/UnderwoodStakesNewsletter2011.htm

A little bit of light , Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes orientanted reading :

http://www.turfdeli.com.au/SirRupertClarkeStakesNewsletter2011.htm