Racehorse TALK

 

Although if you look into race 8 at Randwick you find #1 Ego

For those who can't read it in blue, here it is in black and white.  


STAKES DAY

Betting Portfolio ($100):
Fine sunny day forecast for Saturday and suspect we will end up with a very firm track here. They were winning running on Derby Day because of the head wind. Cup Day, it was pretty even and those running on could get into the finish, but the on pacers often kicked and it did seem like the jockeys were going too wide. It was quite evident on Oaks Day that the track was turning to favour on pacers as it dried out, even though the rail stayed in the 3M position from Tuesday. How on earth IT'S PRINCE lasted to win the last we don't know.

Logic would say that on a wearing track it will favour those running on, but actually think there is a good chance that the on pace pattern from late on Oaks Day will continue. Generally on hard tracks on sunny drying days Flemington can get a little leaderish. So assume even racing, but watch the first few and be prepared if there is a leader's pattern.

Few form notes.
- Super Moody stable have not had a winner all week, which is really unusual. Guess BLACK CAVIAR, might, just might get up for them ? Maybe ? Good luck as he tries to train a feature race first four !
- look at Race 4. 14 runners with 8 last start winners. 12 of the 14 have run a place in their last race. Totally impossible race to line up as any of them could go on so look for value here.
- Race 8 : 1-BAUER will start very short and really is a class above these. Looks the winner, but will start very short. Probably should have won the Geelong Cup, beating the Melbourne Cup winner and would have been competitive in the Melbourne Cup where he just missed out on a start. Just be wary though that there is no speed in this race, and the track could favour those on pace. So maybe save with quinellas with the (4) and the (5) � who is the only on speed horse here. Unless they use the stable mate the (3) as a pace maker ?

Seeing it is Cup week let's double up our betting portfolio again, but have a few more bets and make them each way, and a few exotic variations. Think we went a bit narrow on Thursday with straight out win bets only and it cost us.

BEST BET : Race 2: 8-ERASET $20 WIN
QUINELLA : Race 2: 8-ERASET, 4-HAPPY TRAILS x $5
QUINELLA : Race 2: 8-ERASET, 12-NICASTRO x $5
This one just looks ready to win. Fitter for the 3 runs in and stormed home to only just miss last start at Caulfield. Placed 6 from 7 over the 1600M. Likes hard firm tracks. EXLUDED from last race went well here on Tues so form holds up. Best of all he meets his main rival the (4) here better on weights � a very nice 3kgs better off when there was nothing between them last start. Only query might be he does drop back so needs them to be running on and some speed. Back straight out and save on the quinella with the main rival the (4) and the value on pacer the (12) who went well here on Tuesday.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 8-SECRET ADMIRER $10 EW
Let's have something each way on our top pick in the main race. Very even field and great odds about many of these. Just really liked her Cox Plate run when she was the first to peel out and go for home, and made a very long sustained run and was still making ground at the end of the race. Might have to sneak through runners here on the inside, but she has a very powerful finishing burst when let loose which we might see today at its best.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 11-SEA GALLEON $5EW
QUINELLA : Race 3: 11-SEA GALLEON, 2-TEXAN WARNEY x $5
QUINELLA : Race 3 : 2-TEXAN WARNEY#4,7,9,10 x $2.50 = $10
We are a bit stuck here, we tipped the 11-SEA GALLEON as our best roughie on Thurs and it was scratched for this race, so we need to back it again � else suffer punters lament for dropping off. He is a stayer with some ability coming back after a year long lay off. Looking like he might get back to best form too, won 1st up � surprising after such a long break, and working home really well again 2nd up last start. He has pretty solid form � SA Derby place getter, solid run in MV Cup last year. This is a very even field though and we are also keen on the 2-TEXAN WARNEY who is a very tough consistent on pacer with excellent 2000M form and big plus is that he can roll on the speed here. Both are over 10-1, so let's back the (11) each way, and realistically he probably wins or does nothing, and take the quinellas with the (2) who looks great value in the quinellas as he is just about always in the finish.

TRIFECTA : Race 7 : 5, 9 / 5,9,10,14 / 2,5,6,7,8,9,10,14,16 x $14 = 33%
When we first glanced at this race we were really keen on the 9-PLATINUM PASSION. She has always shown a bit of potential, but just get the feeling she had gone up a notch this spring. Tough on pace win at Caulfield 2 starts back and then led in the Coogny into ferocious head win and all the on pacers were stopping dead that day. She kicked and was only run down in the last 50M. Huge run. Firm track suits and good chance on an on pace bias so she looks well suited and on pacers have won this race quite often in the last couple of years. Only problem is that there seems to be a lot of on pacers in this race � the (2), (, (16) all go forward so jockey probably has to be aware and take a sit today. Main danger is the (5) and very wary of this one whose run last week here in the Myer was excellent weaving through and making late ground. They look the two stand out chances in this. There is going to be some nice value in the trifecta here in the big field, so take just those two to win, the (10) and the (14) look great place chances, especially the (14) with good sit off the speed from the barrier and go as wide as possible for third.

BEST ROUGH : Race 4: 10-SLYVAN POWER $3EW
As we have already said this race is just crazy, so many last start winners and place getters, so many different form lines. Might as well just play with something at value. This one has only had the 2 starts and they have both been excellent, he flattens out and goes for home nicely. Even though up sharply in distance the way he ran on last start suggests the distance will suit. Likely to get a very nice smother back on the rails here in a race with a bit of speed and might just poke through at odds at the end of the race. Worth an each way play bet at around $25.

LAY OF THE DAY : Race 4 : 3-MENTAL at around $5.50
This is an utterly crazy race, so many last start winners and lightly raced horses on the up � really just about anything could win � even the rank outsider and bottom weight the (14). This one is going to start close to favourite, but is drawn out a little, normally races handy but there is a fair bit of speed here so is likely to get trapped wide. Bit hard to have a serious bet in such an even field with 14 different form lines to line up, so much easily just to lay the favourite.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
RUNNING DOUBLE : Race 6 : 7,8,10,13,15 / 5,9 x 50 cents = $5
Often we get a value winner in the Emirates Stakes, down the bottom of the weights. So take a running double on some of the value runners into the (5) and the (9) who look likely to fight out Race 7.


The Tips:

Race 1: EARLY 2YO. WATCH THE MORNING CARTOONS
Race 2: 8-ERASET, 4-HAPPY TRAILS, 12-NICASTRO
Race 3: 11-SEA GALLEON, 2-TEXAN WARNEY, 7-THE BLACK OAK
Race 4: 10-SLYVAN POWER, 2-MAHISARA, 5-TONED
Race 5: 3-BLACK CAVIAR, 5-MID SUMMER MUSIC, 2-BUFFERING
Race 6: 8-SECRET ADMIRER, 13-DAO DAO, 10-TESTA MY PATIENCE
Race 7: 9-PLATINUM PASSION, 5-SKYERUSH, 14-KY'S THE LIMIT
Race 8: 1-BAUER, 4-BOOM�N�ZOOM, 5-PADDY O�REILLY
Race 9: 8-STIRLING GROVE, 3-AMAETHON, 9-OUTLANDISH LAD

i'll tip my hat turf when i am wrong,you tipped very well today, i earnt mega bucks laying them...

cheers mate 

Always after the event Mowie.

And where were your tips big mouth?

i wrote them up... white on white,what couldn't see them??? 

Bit weird Mowie.

Your only posts on this site are in the comps or having a crack at Turf Deli.

You are a free loading troll of the highest order Chump.

You should be banned immediately.

Have you stopped to think Mowie why everyone has jumped to defend TD?

You see he's having a go, puts it up for everyone to see with a little lighthearted banter rolled in  you on the other hand have offered nothing but throwing mud without putting up alternatives.

Agree with Vamp, nothing but a worthless troll who offers zero 

turf do you have a donate link on your site???  just checked my account wow cleaned up on the lay bets!!!! 

i love your site an will never have a bad word for it ever after today !!!!

cheers bookmarker

Mowie I'm sure if you were exposed for who you are your agenda would also be exposed. But we don't really want to go there do we . . .

Mowie?

accountability boys.....

i think anyone who takes money from a bookie (dance with the devil), should he/her not have to perform,an have accountability with his tips an site like any normal human???

ain't we the first to shoot down the jockeys for a bad ride,why not tips/sites ??? cose he post on the site all the time ??? nahhhh don't buy that lame!!!

should we not judge how he is going? as he is offering a payed service to some who take turfs advice an bet money they can not afford???

just to add i hardly bet,lucky to bet once in a month,just love racing..... an turf you ain't that only one i am talking about in my rant                  no troll post

Mowie, we have a thread, somewhere not sure what it is called, where we bring tipsters, those who charge, to account.

Turfdeli puts in the hardyards and brings us his/her tips as far as I know for free, its up to us whether we follow them or not.

I've read some rubbish on here but your post is at the top of the pile Mowie 

What does having advertisements on his site have to do with accountability? Hell you post on this site (had a look at the top banner lately?) You're hardly accountable seeing your happy to slag off someone yet won't post your own work 

As for a paid service ........... ????? please point out where he charges for his work? free website and free newsletter, both of which your under no obligation to look at