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Racehorse TALK » Racing Talk » Qld Gallops » Topic: Brisbane Racing: DO THE TAB FIXED ODDS TALK?
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Author Topic: Brisbane Racing: DO THE TAB FIXED ODDS TALK?  (Read 11730 times)
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dubbledee
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Original Post 2009-Aug-21, 06:57 AM

On another thread there's been discussion on the topic of pre-post betting as a guide to finding a winner.   Some see the distribution in quaddies, for example, as an indicator of likely interest when the final win pool is put together.

TAB fixed odds now offer those "in the know" a chance to have a wager well in advance of the actual race.  While the markets are terribly unfair (set at 140-150%), they still offer odds that are fixed, and -  for an individual runner - potentially better than the starting odds.

There have certainly been instances of early shoppers getting "overs" on recent Brisbane winners.  Tears 'n' Cheers was one example, where $13 was layed.  The horse started at less than half that quote.

Let's keep an eye on the Brisbane UNiTAB fixed odds, and see if we can find a winner in the "fluctuations".

[Note that odds will naturally reduce due to scratchings.  These are not fluctuations as such.  Also, deductions will impact on the prices taken prior to any scratchings.]
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ledgerr77
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2009-Aug-21, 10:35 AM


 When i take a daily double and i like some value horses in the second leg... I often use betfair to weigh up my first leg choices.....its a great tool for information that would normally be hidden.....it would of course be useless in the secondary leg (as the bet type closes)..but that final 5 minutes of betting is a great guide as to which horse is fancied and how it may fair, invaluable !
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dubbledee
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2009-Aug-21, 08:30 PM

Race 1:  Favourites have eased.  Bit of interest in the 9, 23 into 17.

Race 2: Liily has firmed 3.3 to 2.7.  Other fancies easy.

Race 3: Nothing significant.

Race 4: Betting suspended for some reason. chin

Race 5: Reizarb 2.7 to 3.8.  The 5 firmed from 5 to 4.4.  Morgalicious a firmer from 15 to 10.

Race 6: Toppie eased 3.9 to 5.  Uncle Jan a firmer 12 into 8. Barclays 12 into 9.5. Others generally easier.

Race 7: Onalar a firmer 7.5 into 6.

Race 8: JMN the firmer 3.6 into 2.8.  Interest in the checks 7.5 into 6.  Five Ways solid.
« Last Edit: 2009-Aug-21, 08:44 PM by dubbledee » Logged
napes
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2009-Aug-21, 08:36 PM

It was the 3 in race 3 DD
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napes
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2009-Aug-21, 08:39 PM

Sorry Race 2
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Shaftesbury
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2009-Aug-21, 08:50 PM

Depends where you look and how you view the betting/markets DD.... Tab fixed odds is one establishment but they go up very high percentage and you can generally get better with other corporates

1) Still $21 available about number 9

2) It isn't the "topweight" that has firmed ... It is the favourite Lilleelavee that has firmed as they put up generous odds

4) Not everyone has "suspended betting" .... they often suspend betting in races with young/lightly raced horses when the "unknown" is a big factor !

5) Reizarb was obviously put up under the odds cause they were scared of the horse, he is getting toward his right price now .... Plenty of $6 was bet about number 5 for those of us lucky enough to snag it ..... Still plenty of $13 available about Morgalicious

......... Anyhow , my point is ... you can't get a feel for the early fixed odds betting by monitoring the worst of the early operators being the Tab ! .......... Furthermore , it's very hard to win these days unless you are getting set at the early odds for runners you like that are going to be "well fancied" ....... Sure they bet a lot of percentage , but a lot of that percentage is in 10/1 chances that don't have any chance and will start 33/1 on the day !

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dubbledee
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2009-Aug-21, 08:53 PM

Shaftesbury

As the title suggests, this thread is all about UNiTAB fixed odds.  We understand all your points.  Sometimes I get the idea you think we're all a mob of newbies on here. lol

Feel free to open a thread based on the other corporates, and enlighten us.
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Shaftesbury
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2009-Aug-21, 09:25 PM

On another thread there's been discussion on the topic of pre-post betting as a guide to finding a winner.   Some see the distribution in quaddies, for example, as an indicator of likely interest when the final win pool is put together.

TAB fixed odds now offer those "in the know" a chance to have a wager well in advance of the actual race.  While the markets are terribly unfair (set at 140-150%), they still offer odds that are fixed, and -  for an individual runner - potentially better than the starting odds.

There have certainly been instances of early shoppers getting "overs" on recent Brisbane winners.  Tears 'n' Cheers was one example, where $13 was layed.  The horse started at less than half that quote.

Let's keep an eye on the Brisbane UNiTAB fixed odds, and see if we can find a winner in the "fluctuations".

[Note that odds will naturally reduce due to scratchings.  These are not fluctuations as such.  Also, deductions will impact on the prices taken prior to any scratchings.]


Do you think we are a mob of "newbies" DD ? ........... Your entire post suggests the rest of us don't have a clue ..... but that last paragraph , informing us that scratchings make a difference to the prices bet and deductions will be had.... And then suggesting I thought members were a "mob of newbies"............ Classic !

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dubbledee
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2009-Aug-22, 10:01 AM

Following on from last night.

Race 1:  Only significant move is the yellow into 6.5 from 8.5

Race 2: Liily is now 3.3 to 2.6.  Falling Star firm.

Race 3: Nothing significant.

Race 4: Pharonic into 5, other fancies easier.  The blue is into 16 from 23.

Race 5: Reizarb 2.7 to  4.  Morgalicious a firmer from 15 to 10, now 11.

Race 6: Uncle Jan a firmer 12 into 7.5.  Barclays 12 into 7.5.

Race 7: The checks into 3.8.  Others easier.

Race 8: JMN now 2.9.  Interest in Kyros 35 into 26. 
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wily ole dog
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2009-Aug-22, 10:10 AM

Kyros has been scratched a few times of late, mainly becuase of the draw, I think.

No favours today, either sad
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gratlog
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2009-Aug-22, 10:11 AM

I'm sort of understanding what people see in betfair.  Yesterday I was checking out the fixed odds on Unitab then going to betfair and asking for a bit bigger price and got matched every time.

Newcomers to the game like me are still learning. biggrin
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triple7
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2009-Aug-22, 12:31 PM

They haven't missed Ulladulla in teh first. $9's to $5's this morning.
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dubbledee
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2009-Aug-23, 03:44 PM

Taking stock after yesterday.

Race 1

Winner Lifeboat open 2.7 and finished 2.8.  Win tote was 2.9.  Ulladulla was the firmer, 9 into 7 at the death.  He finished 5.9 on the WT and ran a close 2nd.  Kalkie Kane eased 3.8 to 6.5 at the jump and ran 4th.

Race 2

Lillelavee was the shortener, 3.3 into 2.15,  She was 2.3 on the WT and ran 3rd.  Winner Sarthemare opened 9, and finished at 10.  She was shorter at 8.7 on the WT.  Falling Star started off at 3.3, finished 3.5 on fixed and 3.8 on WT. Sleek Repeat eased 4.4 to 8, and was 11.6 on WT.  She did nothing.

Race 3

Winner Forestreno opened 3.3, finishing at 3.2 on both fixed and WT.  Michelle Cafea was solid at 3.8, but started at 4.3 on WT.  Bitabiff and Shakeva eased marginally.  Teranaba drift 9 to 13, with 14.7 final WT.

Race 4

Winner Shadow Buster held his opening price of 26, with 34.8 the final WT.  Show A Lion Heart opened 3.5 and finished 4.4.  Sanderson drifted 3.5 to 6 and finished down the track.  Craiglea King was a firmer, 23 into 13.  WT was 14.7.  He showed up, but was wide.  Panningen driften 7.5 to 12 and was well back from the jump.  Some Journey went from 12 to 23, but ran 4th.

Race 5

Winner Shady Prospect opened 6.5 and went to 10, with 12.4 on the WT.  Favourite Reizarb went from 2.7 to 4, then back to 3 at the jump.  Charvicky firmed 9 to 6.5 and was beaten a lip.  Morgalicious was in from 15 to 11, but did nothing.  Deception Bay eased 5 to 10 and ran 5th.  Eddie Rapido was firm around 5.

Race 6

Winner Eureka opened 12 and firmed late to 9.  Lander went from 3.9 to 5.5, and back to 4.6 at the jump.  Second-placed Shooting Scene went 6.5 to 9.   Barclays was backed 12 into 6.5 and again finished behind the placegetters.  Don Vito was a blower, 7.5 to 12 and finished well back.

Race 7

Winner Secrets Untold opened 4.8, went to 5.5, and finished back at 4.8.  WT paid 5.3.  Little Stranger was 4 into 3.2.  Plenty of interest in Onalar.  Opened 7.5 and finished 5.5.  He did nothing.  Legendary Man went from 5 to 7.5, with 9.5 on WT at the death. In Rehearsal was 4.8 to 7.  WT was 8.8. 

Race 8

Winner HOTC opened 9 and finished 10 in both places.  Judge Me Not started off at 3.6, was quickly into 2.8 and jumped at 2.6.  Pit Lane was solid at 6.5.  Light Red was firm at 7.5.  No interest in Black Morgan or Kings Artist.

Overall, I reckon the price-assessors did a pretty good job with their opening figures.
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dubbledee
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2009-Aug-25, 09:41 PM

Looking at fixed odds market for tomorrow, I'd think these look safe place bets.

Odds seem about right.  Obviously if ya bet now, you lie awake all night waiting for the scratchings. rant

Race 3

The Willick-trained SILENT MOVIE ran an amazing race first up here for 2nd Ekka Wed.  He looks a sitter for the drum @ $1.62.

Race 4

Few queries in the race, but RED GOD looks a great chance from the good gate.  Currently $1.80.

Race 5

Bailey-trained QUEEN OF ASIA will be looking for further, but she should get the drum.  Currently $1.47.  CALM BEFORE looks a place certainty at $1.32.

Race 6

We haven't seen LAURELS for a few months.  He might need the run, but should get the hole.  $1.53 is short enough, and I would wait till tomorrow.


The markets for the last two look tight.  I'd think SHUFFLE THE CASH and PREDOMINATOR will lob.
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dubbledee
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2009-Aug-26, 07:37 AM

Just tried to place a bet on TAB Sportsbet.  Ya go through all the preliminaries, then ya get this:


SPORTSBET HOST BUSY - TRY AGAIN


If ya not OPEN, don't display ODDS. rant
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