dubbledee
Editor
Group 1 user 285
 Offline
Posts : 23917
|
|
|
 Original Post 2009-Aug-21, 06:57 AM
|
On another thread there's been discussion on the topic of pre-post betting as a guide to finding a winner. Some see the distribution in quaddies, for example, as an indicator of likely interest when the final win pool is put together.
TAB fixed odds now offer those "in the know" a chance to have a wager well in advance of the actual race. While the markets are terribly unfair (set at 140-150%), they still offer odds that are fixed, and - for an individual runner - potentially better than the starting odds.
There have certainly been instances of early shoppers getting "overs" on recent Brisbane winners. Tears 'n' Cheers was one example, where $13 was layed. The horse started at less than half that quote.
Let's keep an eye on the Brisbane UNiTAB fixed odds, and see if we can find a winner in the "fluctuations".
[Note that odds will naturally reduce due to scratchings. These are not fluctuations as such. Also, deductions will impact on the prices taken prior to any scratchings.]
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
| |
Zzzzzzzz
Maiden user 1764
Offline
Posts : 12
|
|
|
2011-Dec-27, 07:04 PM
|
Not true, in the usual thinking of a "big go" .... they put up the wrong price at $7 .... a punter asks for $2k at $7 , they bet him $300 and turn it into $5.50 ....other corporates see this and turn it into $5 ...same punter asks for $2k at $5.50 , they bet him $200 and turn it into $4 and again other corporates follow suit ....... come race day , when the bookies have to let punters on for a minimum amount , they put up $3.50 and are once again saved from a beating due to the farcical early betting with no minimum limits/percentages imposed ! ..... and all the punters with little/no idea throw it into their quaddies as it is now clearly a solid market runner, and again, all the value has been sucked out of Saturday racing due to the early fixed odds betting without minimums ! ....The person who "knocks off the market" would get far more on if they waited for the Saturday, but of course, when the fixed odds guys put up the wrong price, they may as well take it , orelse someone else will ! ..... saves the bookies a fortune, knowing how short a price they can lay fancied runners for before they are commited to a minimum bet ! ................. let's not discuss what happens when a frustrated owner hears that "they bet 10/1 about your horse and it's only 5/2 now", even though the 10/1 is generally just bookies trying to figure out how short they can lay it at , it is still hard for the owner to back it now at 5/2, would be better off saving it for another day ! "Early fixed odds markets are killing Australian racing!"  Shaftesbury its good to see someone say this as i been saying this from the day they first started offering early fixed odds ....they have totally fcked up the horse racing betting industry!! |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
JWesleyHarding
Group 1 user 231
Offline
Posts : 10314
|
|
|
2011-Dec-27, 07:22 PM
|
Well Zzzzzzz despite the connotations of your nic you haven't been asleep. I missed Shaftsbury's excellent post. Very illuminating.  Although both his, and your, conclusions are open to debate. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1 user 285
Offline
Posts : 23917
|
|
|
2011-Dec-27, 07:22 PM
|
Gee, a rather dogmatic maiden post from the sleeper. 
I'm pretty dumb on this topic. But, what's getting my interest is that last year over $1 BILLION was wagered on t/b fixed odds markets. Doesn't seem like too bad an innovation. 
Still no markets up for EF for tomorra. The boys must wanna wait to see the opening tote pools. 
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1 user 285
Offline
Posts : 23917
|
|
|
2011-Dec-27, 07:41 PM
|
Just to help those who think Fixed Odds have done irreparable damage to racing...
You will ask those whose horse was expected to be 5/2 at the course, yet because of a premature plunge on another runner in the fixed odds markets, their horse opened on course at 5/1.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Zzzzzzzz
Maiden user 1764
Offline
Posts : 12
|
|
|
2011-Dec-27, 08:39 PM
|
Letting them offer early fixed odds has totally ruined it for the big punters and for anyone to suggest this is not true then you likely are only a small punter and for this reason wont understand why.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1 user 285
Offline
Posts : 23917
|
|
|
2011-Dec-27, 08:58 PM
|
Yeah, right.
Let's have a collective cry for the "big punters". 
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Zzzzzzzz
Maiden user 1764
Offline
Posts : 12
|
|
|
2011-Dec-27, 09:15 PM
|
you have no idea dubbledee
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
|
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1 user 285
Offline
Posts : 23917
|
|
|
2011-Dec-28, 06:19 AM
|
you have no idea dubbledee
And on what basis should we view your comments as factual, sleeper? |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Antitab#
Group 2 user 234
Offline
Posts : 1802
|
|
|
2011-Dec-28, 06:20 AM
|
ZZZZZZZ is clearly right that pre post fixed odds betting has made it harder for big punters because the bookmakers allow the punters to effectively frame the market 2 days out with very little risk. Mind you the grubby Brisbane bookies still bet 140 on the day after the corpoarates and TABS have bet 120 two days earlier.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Zzzzzzzz
Maiden user 1764
Offline
Posts : 12
|
|
|
2011-Dec-28, 12:03 PM
|
And on what basis should we view your comments as factual, sleeper?
Shaftesbury explained it in quite a number of times actually on the forum and thread so i don't know what else one can say to convince you. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1 user 285
Offline
Posts : 23917
|
|
|
2011-Dec-28, 07:26 PM
|
Well, it might just be that Shaftesbury's "explanation" is merely an opinion - which, I suspect, yours is, too.
Sorry I don't agree with either of you. But that's how it goes on this Forum and only you can deal with that.
I backed SOF at 4:12 this arve - well before the race but long after those fixed odds marauders had done their damage (that you harp on about) - and still managed to beat the TAB and books by a big margin.
They're doing humungous damage, for sure. 
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1 user 285
Offline
Posts : 23917
|
|
|
2012-Feb-09, 05:16 PM
|
Plenty of early interest on SANTO DE LAGO for the 4th at the Farm on Saturday.
He's got me before, and I fear he's gonna get me again. 
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1 user 285
Offline
Posts : 23917
|
|
|
2012-Feb-12, 09:42 AM
|
A masterly ride by G Colless got the Encosta 5yo home in a cliff-hanger.
I thought he'd won live, but had second thoughts on the slow-mo.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
ratsack
VIP Club
Group 2 user 327
Offline
Posts : 1474
|
|
|
2012-Feb-12, 07:06 PM
|
A masterly ride by G Colless got the Encosta 5yo home in a cliff-hanger.
I thought he'd won live, but had second thoughts on the slow-mo.
Was easy from my end i backed the other one.(dd yours are supposed to run a place!) |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
