Racehorse TALK

 i hold some interest in this thread after the sucessful thangool raid......
dd you seem to semi-retired self funded so if you have time lets do a trial with me and tev on the northern meetings....tev?

Retirement Staking Plan on the Grandstand Publishing Site. It's a divisor plan with back up safety measures and its free.

My initial feeling about it is that it would have an unacceptable level of built in volatility and your spread of possible results would have huge variance.

The fact is if your last five lose, you end up with nothing. So you could pick three winners in the first five and show a level stakes profit but end up losing 100% of your bank.

I think ten bets is way too small a series for this type of approach. As we've shown from our quest, (particularly my results) runs of results can vary enormously.

I'd have to think about it if the propostion was say 100 bets broken up into 50/50, however I'm still not sure about it.

 

dam, thought it said Stalking thread, i had plenty of advise on that one 

General comments re staking...

I don't think anything beats a simplistic approach to staking.

Just my opinion...but I think the first point to any staking plan is to ensure that you are employing a selection method that is a winning one. If you're selection method doesn't stand up on it's own then it's hard [impossible?] to turn that around. Knowing it's a good selection method - gives you confidence in your abilities - provides evidence of the type of divs you experience - and evidence of good/bad runs.

Two problems with a lot of staking plans for mine.
They're high risk [like this one].
And some are easy in theory to calculate your next bet - but in the hustle and bustle of race day aren't as easy to work out.

Eg some are your raceday bets might be too close together to wait for a result then get the next bet on. Are you really able to be checking each bet and result on a raceday or do you need to put them all on at the start day. What if there are great fixed odds available in the morning for your last bet of the day - but you can't bet until you know the outcome of the bet in the race before.

My approach...X % of your bank on raceday.

Eg this Sat your bank is $500 and your stake is 2% which = $10

If you have 5 bets for the day your outlay will be $50.

If you lose on all bets your bank would be $450 and your next race the stake would be 2% of that being $9

Now I know most punters wouldn't want a bar of that approach but it's my approach.

Good on you i reckon. Do what you are comfortable with, at least your money should last for a while using that plan.

I have tried a number of different staking plans recently however i always seem to find a reason not to use it (normally because a horse is not representing what i consider "Fair Value").
If i would have just stuck with the plan i would be ahead.

FYI - If you are new to staking plans and don't want to throw away a lot of money (so i am talking about me) i find place betting staking plans can achieve fairly decent results with a lot less risk. It helps if you have a number of system returning >70 - 75% place strike rate as i have.

It all depends what one wants to get out of gambling.

Think it always comes back to Level Stakes & if your betting wins that way then you're going OK overall. By changing stakes is just guesswork as the horses won't know the difference & it is all random with either lucky or unlucky consequences.  

What I find it the hardest part is selecting 1 bet as 'the bet' as it puts all eggs into 1 basket for that week. For example I'm selecting 10 horses to place per week & getting around 66% strike rate but am only getting 33% strike rate by going one out. As in the share market, if you want to decrease risk than spread your risk over a number of shares/bets.