Staking Approach - Comments Appreciated - #1 Horse Racing Forum in Australia for Race-Horse News

dubbledee

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Original Post 2009-Sep-14, 03:36 PM

I'm always the one to argue against rigid staking systems, but looking at the results of the Fortune 500 Challenge I'm currently running with wenona, I'm putting up this for comment and criticism.

We start with $1000, and will have a series of 10 bets. (They can be win, or place.)

The base stake for each bet is $100.

For the first 5 bets (#1 to #5), any return from the bet is distributed evenly among the remaining bets, and added to the base stake. Say bet #2 yields a return of $240, we add $30 to the stake for each of the remaining 8 bets.

For bets #6 to #9, should they be successful we RETAIN THE STAKE, but distribute the PROFITS evenly among the remaining bets.

Obviously for bet #10 ya keep the lot.

(The bets could be managed simply by a spreadsheet.)

The "system" would be best applied to the "best bet of the day", IMO, and has the advantage of removing the impulse betting which defeats many of us as we bet race to race.

I have no idea what sort of frequency of returns/odds would be required to turn the $1000 into something more than $1000, but it seems a reasonable approach.

Look forward to comments.

Addendum 17.12.09

I used the staking strategy discussed in this post in the recent Melbourne Cup Match Race Challenge.

Here are the results where $100 was turned into $237:

Bet #1 $10 - 07.11.09 BR6 #4 ANOTHER TAKEOVER 2nd $18.13 BANK = $108.13

Bet #2 $12 - 11.11.09 BR6 #2 OUR MOSCATO ($2.00) u/p BANK = $96.13

Bet #3 $12 - 14.11.09 BR6 #5 OUR LUKAS 1st $25.80 BANK = $109.93

Bet #4 $16 - 18.11.09 BR2 #1 BULLION BAY 3rd $23.20 BANK = $117.13

Bet #5 $20 - 21.11.09 BR2 #7 REFLECTION OF JADE 1st $38.00 BANK = $135.13

Bet #6 $28 - 25.11.09 BR1 #7 FLY WITH ME 3rd $50.20 BANK = $128.00 SAFE = $29.33

Bet #7 $34 - 28.11.09 BR8 #2 SECRETS UNTOLD 1st $66.30 BANK = $126.00 SAFE = $63.63

Bet #8 $44 - 05.12.09 BR6 #4 EMMA'S HEART ($2.70) U/P BANK = $82 SAFE = $63.63

Bet #9 $42 - 09.12.09 BR7 #3 ELUSIVE PORT 1st $75.60 BANK = $73 SAFE = $106.23

Bet #10 $73 - 16.12.09 BR5 #7 SPANISH FLING 1st $131.40 BANK = $0 SAFE = $237.63

Although not part of the Melbourne Cup Challenge, a second series of bets has been placed on the same plan as above. (see Melbourne Cup Challenge thread).

$100 returned $881 from 10 successful place bets.

We've had another run of 10 bets. This time all were again successful, and the $100 was turned into $297.


« Last Edit: 2010-Apr-12, 02:07 PM by dubbledee »	Logged

pegasyber

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2011-May-09, 03:24 PM

I give up trying to post a table.


« Last Edit: 2011-May-11, 08:24 AM by pegasyber »	Logged

wily ole dog

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2011-May-09, 03:43 PM

governor writes ... 2010-Apr-15, 09:35 AM

Now after all these years of research im stuck with having 11 bets on a saturday/public holiday (half that mid week) and must win 2 to have a winning day, best part of this staking strategy is the winners price only has to be between $2.35 and $5.85 to show a clear profit. Anyway it works for me.

Champ, care to expand?


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dubbledee

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2011-May-09, 08:00 PM

Have just completed the latest PLACE CHALLENGE.

We ended up with a share value of $16.45 out of $30.

With a starting bank of $991 I outlayed $1400 for a return of $952.

Not a very profitable run.

per ardua ad astra


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pegasyber

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2011-May-11, 06:51 AM

A sample pricing calculation table. Just testing format layout of a spreadsheet. Lost the Plot again.


« Last Edit: 2011-May-11, 08:50 AM by pegasyber »	Logged

dubbledee

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2012-Jan-08, 11:07 AM

I'm continue to use this staking approach for the Place Challenges.

Most have returned a profit, and running my eye over the payouts, it's giving a result better than flat stake.

For now, I won't be modifying it.

I can't believe it was 2009 I started this. Sad


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dubbledee

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2012-Feb-19, 10:09 AM

The January 2012 Challenge has been completed.

Shareholders received a dividend of 23%.

Over the 10 rounds, POT was 12.3%.


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monologue

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2012-Feb-19, 10:33 AM

Excellent punting dd. beer


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wily ole dog

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2012-Feb-19, 02:39 PM

dubbledee writes ... 2009-Sep-14, 03:36 PM

We start with $1000, and will have a series of 10 bets. (They can be win, or place.)

The base stake for each bet is $100.

For the first 5 bets (#1 to #5), any return from the bet is distributed evenly among the remaining bets, and added to the base stake. Say bet #2 yields a return of $240, we add $30 to the stake for each of the remaining 8 bets.

For bets #6 to #9, should they be successful we RETAIN THE STAKE, but distribute the PROFITS evenly among the remaining bets.

Obviously for bet #10 ya keep the lot.

(The bets could be managed simply by a spreadsheet.)

Mate, I have a spreadsheet of all my bets for the last 3 months.

What formula would I enter to check how your staking plan would have gone with my bet.
I ask as I am a dunce with these sort of things and have been searching for a decent staking plan. The current one I am using has returned a good profit but I wonder if I can get better beer


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dubbledee

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2012-Feb-19, 02:46 PM

wily

I have a spreadsheet I use, but it needs a bit of tweaking to make it user-friendly.

Are you up to speed with Excel??

It's not hard to do manually. Just draw up a sheet with 11 columns, and follow the instructions in the opening post.


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