Antitab#
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 Original Post 2009-Oct-11, 07:39 AM
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How good is this one course thing in Adelaide.
The leaders win most races every day. Great for someone like me who is happy to bet for the pattern but dreadful for racing. It wont be long when it like harnesss racing where any horse with no ability but has gate speed gets sold to Perth cause Gloucester Park favours leaders. Any leader will be sold to Adelaide.
With no other metro courses they are stuffed because the tracks are already showing signs they cant handle the work load. Big touble ahead I suspect.
Meanwhile get in for your chop and enjoy the easiest money in the history of racing.
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Wenona
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2009-Oct-11, 07:52 AM
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What is it about racetracks that make them favour leaders? Is it the layout, or is there a fast lane on the fence etc? Also, how about posting a few that you think are going to be favoured and we can see how they go.  |
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Antitab#
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2009-Oct-11, 08:19 AM
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They have moved the rail round but the pattern hasnt changed so not sure why it occurs. For the last 2 months (yesterday was one of the best/worst)you see horses seeming travelling half pace in the running line and as seen as they pull 3 or 4 wide they paddle straight away whilst horses on the fene who seemingly arent travelling as well just keep going in front or make ground the fence.
The fun bit will be when they get a couple of fair tracks and horses with seemingly dreadful form will start winning at good odds.
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Big Wheel
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2009-Oct-11, 10:28 AM
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What is it about racetracks that make them favour leaders? Is it the layout, or is there a fast lane on the fence etc? Also, how about posting a few that you think are going to be favoured and we can see how they go. The Rail for starters, or placement thereof, Out= Leaders & on Pace |
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navajo
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2009-Oct-12, 10:06 AM
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Totally agree...I am sick of leader bias tracks here in Adelaide....I actually gave up betting on Adel races after 4 races on sat and I am sure I am not the only one to do that.....  |
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Max Manewer
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2009-Oct-12, 10:31 AM
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There are of course the two tracks in use, the main and the "parks" circuit. Morphettville has been a good winner for me for years, and I think more than not the winners come from off pace, at least on the old track, particularly on firm going. Often they can't come on from wide on dead or worse.
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Wenona
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2009-Oct-12, 11:32 AM
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The Rail for starters, or placement thereof, Out= Leaders & on Pace
I'm trying to understand why. What does moving the rail out do that makes this happen? |
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MagiC~*
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2009-Oct-12, 11:35 AM
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Possibly narrows the fast lane Wenona, this is just a hypothesis, if that's the correct word  But if the inside half of the track is normally more firm/ faster then the outside half, then if you move the rail out, then the fast lane is narrowed to the point, where horses trying to come to the outside are forced to make their runs on the slower part of the track  |
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Antitab#
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2009-Oct-12, 11:40 AM
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I'm trying to understand why.
The obvious is different watering and usage patterns but I dont think anyone knows exactly why it happens. Might sound trite, but if the course curators knew why/how it happened they would be able to stop it. |
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Max Manewer
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2009-Oct-12, 11:49 AM
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Bias ? Looking at the last twelve months, I have 83 winners being positioned in the top three on the home turn, and 81 winners positioned 4th to 6th on the corner. That is less favourable to the leading bunch than most tracks.That's for the main circuit.
The inside track was 29 Vs 25, same criteria as above. Most tracks favour the on pacers to some extent, don't think M'ville is a mad leaders track.
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Antitab#
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2009-Oct-12, 12:06 PM
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Max there is no such thing as a leaders track, the bias is certainly helping those on the inside do you keep any figured for such a thing?.
Do you have the figures on positions for the last 3 months for both tracks, the problem seems to have exasperated since the increased traffic on the Morphetville tracks.
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« Last Edit: 2009-Oct-12, 12:10 PM by Antitab# »
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Max Manewer
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2009-Oct-12, 12:21 PM
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Can't see any substantial difference for last three months or so on the main track, looks to be a little better for the 4th to 6th on turn bracket actually. The parks track is only about 4 months in use. Hilty is fond of emphasising the failure of horses to come from back, but its pretty well standard everywhere. Bendigo is one track that bucks that trend, leaders usually get run over there.
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Max Manewer
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2009-Oct-12, 01:10 PM
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I should add that the last couple of M'ville meetings aren't included there, so might well be a different story there.
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navajo
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2009-Oct-24, 02:16 PM
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Another disgraceful leader bias track at Morhettville Parks today....   |
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Max Manewer
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2009-Oct-24, 02:19 PM
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Don't swoop, do they ?  |
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