dubbledee
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 Original Post 2009-Nov-04, 02:56 PM
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I ran a competition on the Melbourne Cup. The winner was LITTLE HAWK. The prize is a $100 share in a series of 10 place bets I'll be making on SEQld races.
The staking plan is in keeping with something I proposed on an earlier thread. It has no basis in logic, but is designed to "amplify" our winnings, provided we can maintain a high strike rate over the 10-bet series (the base unit per share is $10).
1. For the first 5 bets (#1 to #5), any return from the bet is distributed evenly among the remaining bets, thus increasing the base stake beyond $10. Say bet #2 gives a return of $24, we add $3 to the stake for each of the remaining 8 bets.
2. For bets #6 to #9, should they be successful we RETAIN THE STAKE, but distribute the PROFITS evenly among the remaining bet/s.
3. Obviously for bet #10 we keep the lot.
Hopefully we'll end up with a bank more than $100. But there's a risk that we will lose a bit, or lose the LOT. 
I'll post the bets on this thread, and endeavour to keep a running sheet here.
Bet #1 $10 - 07.11.09 BR6 #4 ANOTHER TAKEOVER 2nd $18.13 BANK = $108.13
Bet #2 $12 - 11.11.09 BR6 #2 OUR MOSCATO u/p BANK = $96.13
Bet #3 $12 - 14.11.09 BR6 #5 OUR LUKAS 1st $25.80 BANK = $109.93
Bet #4 $16 - 18.11.09 BR2 #1 BULLION BAY 3rd $23.20 BANK = $117.13
Bet #5 $20 - 21.11.09 BR2 #7 REFLECTION OF JADE 1st $38.00 BANK = $135.13
Bet #6 $28 - 25.11.09 BR1 #7 FLY WITH ME 3rd $50.20 BANK = $128.00 SAFE = $29.33
Bet #7 $34 - 28.11.09 BR8 #2 SECRETS UNTOLD 1st $66.30 BANK = $126.00 SAFE = $63.63
Bet #8 $44 - 05.12.09 BR6 #4 EMMA'S HEART U/P BANK = $82 SAFE = $63.63
Bet #9 $42 - 09.12.09 BR7 #3 ELUSIVE PORT 1st $75.60 BANK = $73 SAFE = $106.23
Bet #10 $73 - 16.12.09 BR5 #7 SPANISH FLING 1st $131.40 BANK = $0 SAFE = $237.63 
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« Last Edit: 2009-Dec-16, 06:50 PM by dubbledee »
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dubbledee
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2009-Nov-07, 07:40 PM
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Had Blackwoods started it could not have affected our return.
But life's like that.
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Little Hawk
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2009-Nov-08, 09:41 AM
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Well done DD, great start  |
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dubbledee
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2009-Nov-08, 11:51 AM
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Lonnnnng way to go, LH. But I can think of a worse result. 
Thinking of having a try at SC today. 
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dubbledee
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2009-Nov-08, 07:21 PM
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There were four I was considering, and all landed the money.
But I didn't have a try, guys. 
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Max Manewer
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2009-Nov-08, 08:14 PM
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Funny stat. this, talking TAB divs, best ROI on the place is with horses having a poor place SR %. Worst is the very high place SR %
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JWesleyHarding
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2009-Nov-08, 08:24 PM
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Eh?
So it's better for place punters to back horses that don't run a place?
Surely that's a timing thing.
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Max Manewer
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2009-Nov-08, 08:29 PM
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Yeah, could have explained that better, talking about the horse's prior history; if the place SR has been high, it will likely be overbet for the place this time around, to the point of losing more than than is healthy for your pocket.
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JWesleyHarding
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2009-Nov-08, 08:33 PM
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Right.  "to the point of losing more than than is healthy for your pocket"Now you might explain how losing any money is anyway healthy for your pocket.  |
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Max Manewer
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2009-Nov-08, 09:13 PM
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Meaning it is better to lose 10% of turnover than 20%, which is about where things stand. Of course this is tote we are talking about, betfair would be different.
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dubbledee
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2009-Nov-11, 10:49 AM
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Guys
Last night I backed BR 6 #2 OUR MOSCATO at $2 fixed.
As always, one of the favourites came out this morning and we've copped a 16c/$1 deduction. 
So we're down to $1.68.
Good luck to us. 
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Little Hawk
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2009-Nov-11, 11:05 AM
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Give it strenth DD  |
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dubbledee
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2009-Nov-11, 03:35 PM
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No good there, guys. When she couldn't lead the eventual winner, I was concerned. Didn't finish the way I thought she would. Was probably a pretty good race. But I shoulda realised that.
Next.
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Racehorses
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2009-Nov-11, 08:04 PM
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DD no problems, just have a bet and stop stuffing around, we won't be upset if ya lose our money 
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