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Racehorse TALK » Racing Talk Australia » Betting, Tips & Ratings » Topic: Dropping back in class system


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Author Topic: Dropping back in class system  (Read 6262 times)
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wordedmeat
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Original Post 2009-Dec-01, 10:42 AM

im starting a new system which will involve horses dropping back in class, which i think is one of the best ways to find winners,  now is the time of year to start this as the depth of fields drops, spring is hopeless when  races are choc full of class animals.Examples are say a mare with open class form dropping back to mares, or a placed or midfield city horse going back to a maiden, Peter moody is the king of these here in melbourne.Even class horses resuming in lesser grade will qualify.
I will be focusing on mostly melbourne as its where im based but i will be keeping an eye out elsewhere too.
feel free to contribute if anyone finds one i will keep a tally.
Starting with a bank of 200$ and will be investing 10% of the pool the win, 5% the place. bets will be placed at betstar best of 3 totes.
pool 200$
2nd december.
Eagle farm 7-4 Gundys son, 20 win 5 place    1.90 and 1.20 out $ 25in $44
Hwakwsbury 7-3 North dakota 20 win 5 place Sad out $25
tally $196
« Last Edit: 2009-Dec-02, 06:08 PM by wordedmeat » Logged
 
calgary
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2009-Dec-01, 11:01 AM

Kyneton - Race 1 - 10.McFlurry

First up in a Maiden back from G3 company in Adelaide where it started 4/1.
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shane
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2009-Dec-01, 11:19 AM

Sounds like a plan they generally start a very short price imo.
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shane
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2009-Dec-01, 12:01 PM

NR muswellbrook r2 #2 ocean sunset
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dubbledee
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2009-Dec-01, 12:17 PM

Good luck with it guys, but in my opinion there is NO way of winning long term by an "automatic" selection system.

It's been tried in countless forms over the years, and I've seen none that provide a profit over time.

Look forward to the results.
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Max Manewer
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2009-Dec-01, 01:11 PM

Good luck with it guys, but in my opinion there is NO way of winning long term by an "automatic" selection system.

It's been tried in countless forms over the years, and I've seen none that provide a profit over time.

Look forward to the results.


I could convince you otherwise, but I have to maintain radio silence for obvious reasons.  chin
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Max Manewer
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2009-Dec-01, 01:14 PM

I'll have a look at this "down in class" idea shortly.
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Duke of Astor
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2009-Dec-01, 01:15 PM

NR muswellbrook r2 #2 ocean sunset

Not saying cant win

Never declare horses when a jock has never won a race. This apprentice has just started riding.....think less than 10 rides.


The only apprentice I recently recall that looked good from day 1 was Tye Angland.

Can win on a free running type...leading or right on lead
« Last Edit: 2009-Dec-01, 02:50 PM by Duke of Astor » Logged
dubbledee
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2009-Dec-01, 01:49 PM

I could convince you otherwise, but I have to maintain radio silence for obvious reasons.  chin

Max

I have a poker machine system that always wins, too.  But don't expect me to give details.

I used to always win at two-up, as well.  But I'm not gonna tell ya how.

And as for roulette, well....I've never lost. smiley
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wordedmeat
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2009-Dec-01, 01:54 PM

it is not so much ' automatic' doubles as the human element is picking the drop in class and if it has come out of a 'good' form race etc, hopefully it is a way of finding a winner, we will see how we go anyway, i think mainly it will consist of city horses dropping back to midweeks or a group horse dropping back to open or mares etc.
see how we go  Thumb Up
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Max Manewer
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2009-Dec-01, 01:57 PM

Max

I have a poker machine system that always wins, too.  But don't expect me to give details.

I used to always win at two-up, as well.  But I'm not gonna tell ya how.

And as for roulette, well....I've never lost. smiley


That would be the "don't bet on 'em" system.  chin
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Max Manewer
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2009-Dec-01, 02:03 PM

If you use prizemoney as the indicator of race class, there's not much joy backing anything down, up, or sideways in class.  chin
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Max Manewer
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2009-Dec-01, 02:14 PM

1/11/2008 to 31/10/2009
 Race Distance   Bets Win Plc   WOut   WRet   WPrf  W%   WPOT
-------------------------------------------------------------
  800 to 899       71   9   0   1038   1080     42  12    4.0
  900 to 999      217  30   0   2733   3473    740  13   27.0
  1000 to 1099   1811 184   0  23395  24233    838  10    3.5
  1100 to 1199   1501 166   0  18703  19922   1219  11    6.5
  1200 to 1299   3363 354   0  42047  44088   2041  10    4.8
  1300 to 1399   1402 154   0  17352  18554   1202  10    6.9
  1400 to 1499   2470 256   0  30569  30740    171  10    0.5
  1500 to 1599    492  63   0   6658   7083    425  12    6.3

There's  12 months of a mechanical system with just 2 parameters that does about 10% better than expectations. What do you say, DD ? Calc. is best tote.
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dubbledee
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2009-Dec-01, 02:29 PM

Not sure what you're trying to demonstrate, Max.  More details in simple English please. smiley
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Max Manewer
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2009-Dec-01, 02:43 PM

Not sure what you're trying to demonstrate, Max.  More details in simple English please. smiley


1/01/2000 to 31/10/2009
 Race Distance   Bets Win Plc   WOut   WRet   WPrf  W%   WPOT
-------------------------------------------------------------
  800 to 899      608  53   0   7430   7016   -414   8   -5.5
  900 to 999     1717 179   0  21700  25342   3642  10   16.7
  1000 to 1099  161041621   0 203359 218794  15435  10    7.5
  1100 to 1199  128151294   0 159748 165516   5768  10    3.6
  1200 to 1299  308673272   0 383180 421935  38755  10   10.1
  1300 to 1399  120121244   0 147569 157175   9606  10    6.5
  1400 to 1499  221662384   0 273685 297988  24303  10    8.8
  1500 to 1599   4717 542   0  58897  64067   5170  11    8.7

Same thing  for 10 years, two simple, unambiguous, numerical values have to be satisfied to make a selection. Works best under 1600m races. The last column, POT, would be showing -5% or thereabouts if it didn't work.
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