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Racehorse TALK » Racing Talk Australia » Betting, Tips & Ratings » Topic: Dropping back in class system


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Author Topic: Dropping back in class system  (Read 6268 times)
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wordedmeat
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Original Post 2009-Dec-01, 10:42 AM

im starting a new system which will involve horses dropping back in class, which i think is one of the best ways to find winners,  now is the time of year to start this as the depth of fields drops, spring is hopeless when  races are choc full of class animals.Examples are say a mare with open class form dropping back to mares, or a placed or midfield city horse going back to a maiden, Peter moody is the king of these here in melbourne.Even class horses resuming in lesser grade will qualify.
I will be focusing on mostly melbourne as its where im based but i will be keeping an eye out elsewhere too.
feel free to contribute if anyone finds one i will keep a tally.
Starting with a bank of 200$ and will be investing 10% of the pool the win, 5% the place. bets will be placed at betstar best of 3 totes.
pool 200$
2nd december.
Eagle farm 7-4 Gundys son, 20 win 5 place    1.90 and 1.20 out $ 25in $44
Hwakwsbury 7-3 North dakota 20 win 5 place Sad out $25
tally $196
« Last Edit: 2009-Dec-02, 06:08 PM by wordedmeat » Logged
 
dubbledee
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2009-Dec-01, 04:00 PM

Max, I'm not much clearer, but these "unambiquous numerical values"...  What's the source of their derivation?

And do you use this stuff to reap a 10% return on investments or are you sympathetic to your fellow punters and let it go by?
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Max Manewer
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2009-Dec-01, 04:10 PM

It's making about 5% or so at best of 3 totes and sp, which is a handy start, but you won't get those deals for too long from any betting agency, after winning for a little while. I just combine this stuff with some other factors, to hopefully keep  getting a margin of profit. And the 2 numerical values can be easily accessed from publicly available sources.
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Max Manewer
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2009-Dec-01, 04:15 PM

Trouble lately has been a lot of the "support" edges haven't been performing, leading to " negative increases " in the betting bank.  lol
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shane
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2009-Dec-01, 06:03 PM

Not saying cant win

Never declare horses when a jock has never won a race. This apprentice has just started riding.....think less than 10 rides.


The only apprentice I recently recall that looked good from day 1 was Tye Angland.

Can win on a free running type...leading or right on lead

I didnt declare the horse duke noticed it was down in grade and thought it may be a useful stat for the thread beer
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Duke of Astor
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2009-Dec-01, 06:18 PM

OK...As a general rule, when I like a horse and it goes down in class, I'm sceptical.
Prefer not to bet.

So  a horse like Miss Embee...a winner of race 3...I wouldn't back.

Every race should be judged on merit.


For instance, when the money came for Recondo......(also down in class) you knew it was a BIG GO.

Today with all the Fixed odds available, it's much easier to get set for a result.... knowing (from within the Stable)  that it is  far superior to the opposition.
Easy pickings.

20 k can be easily won.














« Last Edit: 2009-Dec-01, 06:34 PM by Duke of Astor » Logged
wordedmeat
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2009-Dec-01, 07:39 PM

ok a few to kick things off tomorow.
Egle farm 7-4 Gundys son, few starts back in a field of 18 ran second to the very smart battlefield,
looks a weak race and can be the first ' bet'
Hwakwsbury 7-3 North dakota, few starst back boasts a second to centennial park and will be the second bet.
  Thumb Up
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Duke of Astor
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2009-Dec-01, 07:51 PM

That's real Injun talk.....from the HECKAWI tribe? of North Dakota

Or ...result of firewater?
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Duke of Astor
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2009-Dec-01, 07:51 PM

ok a few to kick things off tomorow.
Egle farm 7-4 Gundys son, few starts back in a field of 18 ran second to the very smart battlefield,
looks a weak race and can be the first ' bet'
Hwakwsbury 7-3 North dakota, few starst back boasts a second to centennial park and will be the second bet.
Thumb Up


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chuggers
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2009-Dec-01, 08:03 PM

Duke,

You are game on Gundy's

beer
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GamblingMan
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2009-Dec-01, 11:46 PM

down in class short odds

same class or slightly up in class is better

musical lad $33.50 today. only 2 last start winners in race and paid that. what a ripper.
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OldLarsy
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2009-Dec-02, 05:12 AM

Keep a record of last start winners going up a grade, you'll finish on the wrong side of the ledger
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governor
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2009-Dec-02, 06:17 AM

nice result gambling man, but how can we benefit of getting on after the event.
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Sporty
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2009-Dec-02, 07:07 AM

nice result gambling man, but how can we benefit of getting on after the event.


Just ask marky he'll tell ya... lol   lol   lol
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GamblingMan
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2009-Dec-02, 12:07 PM

by looking for a similar situation next time.

horses that win last start have the best record
horses that run 2nd i believe have the next best record

but you see races where a horse ran 5 or 6th starting fav a lot. some of these should be favs but many are unders

bop
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Tevez17
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2009-Dec-02, 12:25 PM

I've had a 3 over the last year or so dropping from midfield finishes in group races to midweek and winning at 5/1+, BULIMBA is the only name i can think of off the top of my head, funnily enough it runs around in the next in Syd.
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