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Author Topic: Dropping back in class system  (Read 6700 times)
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wordedmeat
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Original Post 2009-Dec-01, 10:42 AM

im starting a new system which will involve horses dropping back in class, which i think is one of the best ways to find winners,  now is the time of year to start this as the depth of fields drops, spring is hopeless when  races are choc full of class animals.Examples are say a mare with open class form dropping back to mares, or a placed or midfield city horse going back to a maiden, Peter moody is the king of these here in melbourne.Even class horses resuming in lesser grade will qualify.
I will be focusing on mostly melbourne as its where im based but i will be keeping an eye out elsewhere too.
feel free to contribute if anyone finds one i will keep a tally.
Starting with a bank of 200$ and will be investing 10% of the pool the win, 5% the place. bets will be placed at betstar best of 3 totes.
pool 200$
2nd december.
Eagle farm 7-4 Gundys son, 20 win 5 place    1.90 and 1.20 out $ 25in $44
Hwakwsbury 7-3 North dakota 20 win 5 place Sad out $25
tally $196
« Last Edit: 2009-Dec-02, 06:08 PM by wordedmeat » Logged
 
Bundy
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2009-Dec-04, 04:38 PM

some horses are just non winners



Oh ffs what...Is that true what.....omfg... chin
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Tevez17
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2009-Dec-07, 10:04 AM

Edit.
« Last Edit: 2009-Dec-07, 11:26 AM by Tevez17 » Logged
Tevez17
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2009-Dec-07, 11:27 AM

Going keep my eye on these today

07/12/09 Queanbeyan 1 - VILLAGE BUILDING     1 - Onherelles UNP
07/12/09 Queanbeyan 5 - SOUTH JERRABOMBE   1 - Konedobu UNP
07/12/09 Queanbeyan 6 - CONTENTGROUP BEN 1 - Gold Moss UNP
07/12/09 Terang          1 - Reichas Drapery         8 - Vennom   UNP 16 - Grasping UNP
07/12/09 Terang          3 - Sungold Milk SV           14 - Uma Love UNP
07/12/09 Terang          5 - Bonner Transport       14 - Lou UNP
07/12/09 Terang          8 - Centrebet.com Ge1     1 - Golden Honey $4.20 $2.00
07/12/09 Devonport    7 - 7AD Class 4 Hand       1 - Western Wager $1.50 $1.20
« Last Edit: 2009-Dec-10, 10:30 AM by Tevez17 » Logged
Tevez17
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2009-Dec-10, 10:26 AM

Bendigo 4 - McKern Steel Mai     13 - Morrison  

Gosford 1 - SKILLED MAIDEN P 4 - Topi  
Gosford 2 - NEWCASTLE AIRPOR 5 - Lioncub  
Gosford 6 - EAST GOSFORD TAB 10 - Canzero  

Ipswich 1 - THE BJ MATTHEWS 10 - Miss Vee  
Ipswich 7 - THE NEW BREED MA 2 - Dr Barnard
« Last Edit: 2009-Dec-10, 10:30 AM by Tevez17 » Logged
Tevez17
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2009-Dec-10, 12:25 PM

Bendigo 4 - McKern Steel Mai       13 - Morrison  UNP  

Gosford 1 - SKILLED MAIDEN P  4 - Topi  $1.30 $1.10  
Gosford 2 - NEWCASTLE AIRPOR  5 - Lioncub  UNP
Gosford 6 - EAST GOSFORD TAB  10 - Canzero $2.90 $1.30  

Ipswich 1 - THE BJ MATTHEWS   10 - Miss Vee UNP  Only dropped in Prize money not class 
Ipswich 7 - THE NEW BREED MA  2 - Dr Barnard    UNP

« Last Edit: 2009-Dec-11, 08:57 AM by Tevez17 » Logged
Tevez17
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2009-Dec-11, 08:57 AM

Allan Scott  7 - Flight Centre Ha       9 - Monfils  
Kensington 6 - HALL CHADWICK AC1 - Palacio de Cristal  
Moonee Valle 1 - Valley Events Ha       1 - Tonzaticka
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GamblingMan
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2009-Dec-11, 11:18 AM

If a horse gets beaten 1 length drops 3kgs in class and only goes up 1kg in weight then it has a winning chance but if a horse is dropping in class based on a big defeat or is poorly weighted then it's not a good selection.

Class consideration needs to be relative to its weight and form.

A drop in class alone doesn't mean much.

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Tevez17
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2009-Dec-11, 05:35 PM

Allan Scott  7 - Flight Centre Ha        9 - Monfils  2nd 2.20  
Kensington 6 - HALL CHADWICK AC1 - Palacio de Cristal $3.10 $1.60  
Moonee Valle 1 - Valley Events Ha        1 - Tonzaticka   $1.80 $1.40


Starting to get the hang of this though did miss a few winners today, like DANDEE TOPWIN & EASTERN MANNERS.
« Last Edit: 2009-Dec-11, 09:26 PM by Tevez17 » Logged
Tevez17
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2009-Dec-13, 10:14 PM

Hawkesbury 5 - PAIN AWAY BENCHM 1 - Business Plan   Unplcd  
Hawkesbury 6 - TOWN & COUNTRY E 1 - Music Maestro   Unplcd  
Moonee Valle 2 - Pulse Pharmacy H 3 - Doubtful Jack   1st  $3.00  $2.20
Sunshine Coa 6 - ELEGANT SETTINGS 3 - Steal the Cash   1st  $4.80  $2.50


These were the ones for today, i think there's a decent system or rational here somewhere, just not quite sure what is more important than the next thing, & I'd personally like to keep personal judgement involved which is against the whole idea of a system i suppose.
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Tevez17
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2009-Dec-14, 03:15 PM

Narromine 6 - AGRIGRAIN BENCHM7 - Panov
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wordedmeat
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2009-Dec-14, 03:26 PM

completley agree tev,
think that the personal opinion of the drop back is a very important factor,probably the most important factor.
If it works why not, I suppose it is more guidelines than  a system
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Max Manewer
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2009-Dec-14, 03:30 PM

S'pose Fire of Desire is an omen at the 'bool.  chin
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Max Manewer
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2009-Dec-14, 03:32 PM

oops.....wrong thread  shy
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Max Manewer
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2009-Dec-14, 03:39 PM

.....but won anyhow.
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Tevez17
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2009-Dec-14, 03:49 PM

.....but won anyhow.



thumbsup
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