dubbledee
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 Original Post 2009-Dec-11, 02:05 PM
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On other threads there's been considerable discussion on "early" betting on the fixed odds markets offered by TABs and certain Corporates.
Rather than spread them hither and thither, let's log our early thoughts on this thread. No necessity to back them, but if we see a horse that represents a likely premium vs SP, well spread the word. 
As always, it's preferable to see them before the race, but there'll be occasions when discretion is justified. 
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« Last Edit: 2009-Dec-11, 02:11 PM by dubbledee »
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ratsack
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2012-Jan-20, 08:29 PM
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The Gold Coast racing is out of the way and it's time to start the new year.
Thought I'd pick a couple of roughies out early and see if they can worm for me.
The first one is in BR2 H10 In A Tangle ($15 IAS). Improved run last start over 1800m and looking for more improvement here. Gets back and hasn't been suited by tempo in runs back this time in. Hopefully Kumali and Tarrayoukyan will run along a bit here and give her a shot to run home. Showed she had some quality last time in drawing 17 of 18 and coming from last to be beaten 3.8l by Bianca Jewel in the Listed Princess Stakes over 1600m at Eagle Farm in April, then running second coming from 13th to Divorces in the Listed Gold Coast Bracelet over 1800m on slow ground. Potentially she's way better than these and she looks really well placed here in a class 6 with the bottom weight of 52.5kg.
The second one is in BR5 H8 Suchabimbo ($26 Tatts). I was surprised to see All That as favourite here as I think he's a bit of a squib and struggles at the 1000m. The form in these OMW races is always all over the place and hard to line up but on ratings I'd prefer Suchabimbo, Lambert, Prime Cognac and Devil's Melody over the favourite. Suchabimbo has had two runs back and rated well last start finishing second at Ballina. I think he's drawn to find the rail here so should have the option of leading or taking a sit. He's also suited by the conditions getting in on the minimum. When he last raced against Devils Melody at Grafton he had to give him 3.5kg (he was beaten 2L) so level weights here is an advantage. At $6 Devils Melody and $26/$7.25 Suchabimbo I've got to be on Suchabimbo eachway. I'll probably also take the favourite on and box - 3-5-8-9 in quinellas/tri. (J Taylor will ride).
lovely summation  now this is what this forum is about |
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wily ole dog
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2012-Jan-20, 09:04 PM
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DIAGO at $6.5
DALZAR at $6.00
 Wish I had a replay, I seem to recall he was a bit stiff last start |
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dubbledee
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2012-Jan-20, 09:14 PM
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wily, DALZAR jumped fairly, then dropped back to be near the tail. Got a slight check after 200. Stayed on rail all the way, following Dual Chamber. Ran into the fray at the 200, but weakened out of it last bit.
Gotta improve in a big way, but different race tomorra. 
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wily ole dog
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2012-Jan-20, 09:23 PM
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Oops, I meant Diago
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Wenona
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2012-Jan-20, 09:23 PM
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Might keep the early's going for a while so might as well put the money where the mouth is.
I'll start with $100 and have $5 eachway In A Tangle at $15/$4.40 IAS and $3/$5 Suchabimbo $26/$7.25 Tatts. Those prices are still available.
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dubbledee
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2012-Jan-20, 09:26 PM
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Oh, DIAGO. Well if ya can catch him you're a genius. Form means nothing. 
Good luck, Wenona.
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dubbledee
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2012-Jan-22, 10:13 AM
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Just one worm mentioned above. MAJESTIC SOUND at $13.
Maybe IN A TANGLE is passed her best. 
And a  to Sportsbet for their minimal deductions on the last at the Farm yesterday.
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dubbledee
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2012-Feb-02, 10:30 PM
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With the wet around there are worms everywhere in Brisbane. The trick is to find one. 
One who's worth considering is N Qlder RED STORY in Race 6. Hopefully he'll get 3kg for Mitch Wood, pending recovery from leg injury.
He's won 10 from 41 and over $100k, mostly up north. He's a bloody good horse, but on every occasion he's come to town he's BOMBED the start. Apart from that, his runs have been very good. Recent NQ form is sound.
He's long odds at present, around $25. I've taken $7.25 the drum on NSW TAB.
Just as a coincidence, the horse is trained by this fellow:
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Wenona
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2012-Feb-03, 07:16 AM
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I've got him having 3 reared at starts (including his last 2 starts at Doomben), 4 jumped awkwardly and 5 slow away's in his last 20 starts.
He's certainly got form.
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« Last Edit: 2012-Feb-03, 07:18 AM by Wenona »
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usernametaken
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2012-Feb-05, 11:00 AM
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I fell into him at the track too.  |
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dubbledee
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2012-Feb-05, 11:30 AM
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He dropped his head at the start again, and things didn't go quite right in the run. He's that sort of horse.
As one of the connections said after the race "he'll win one if we keep coming back, but it's a long way from Rocky to Brisbane". 
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dubbledee
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2012-Feb-08, 06:47 AM
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Worm-watchers could do worse than take a look at INVINCIBLE MATE in Race 6 today.
Forget the first up run on the Cushion. He can bound out from the rails and give a sight.
Currently $5 the drum.
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chuggers
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2012-Feb-08, 05:59 PM
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Worm-watchers could do worse than take a look at INVINCIBLE MATE in Race 6 today.
Forget the first up run on the Cushion. He can bound out from the rails and give a sight.
Currently $5 the drum.
Well caught DD--- and $20 win to boot   |
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el zoro
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2012-Feb-08, 06:55 PM
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Great tip dd. 
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dubbledee
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2012-Feb-08, 08:13 PM
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Thanks, guys. Very delectable.
Hope you got some.
Just disappointing that one of our good forum mates was relegated to 3rd after looking home and hosed at juicy odds. 
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