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Author Topic: Fixed Odds: Do Early Birds catch the Worms  (Read 43930 times)
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dubbledee
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Original Post 2009-Dec-11, 02:05 PM

On other threads there's been considerable discussion on "early" betting on the fixed odds markets offered by TABs and certain Corporates.

Rather than spread them hither and thither, let's log our early thoughts on this thread.  No necessity to back them, but if we see a horse that represents a likely premium vs SP, well spread the word. smiley

As always, it's preferable to see them before the race, but there'll be occasions when discretion is justified.
« Last Edit: 2009-Dec-11, 02:11 PM by dubbledee » Logged
 
dubbledee
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2009-Dec-11, 07:45 PM

Have spent a bit more time on Race 2.  While Gundy Son and Woorim look genuine odds-on chances to run the drum, I think AQUATERRA represents value at current place odds of $3.25.  I've taken a sample.  He had to be ridden forward last outing, but looks likely to take a sit tomorrow.  I'll be surprised if he doesn't end up in the first 5 - hopefully the first 3. smiley
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dubbledee
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2009-Dec-11, 07:57 PM

MY LIMIT now into $1.62 on NSW TAB fixed.  Centrebet has $1.95.
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Max Manewer
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2009-Dec-11, 08:00 PM

i notice tabcorp has fixed odds up for saturday, but no market on the 2yo race, after the last 2 weeks of getting it horribly wrong, i don't blame them.

Da Judge on b/f forum.  chin  They may be seeking your services shortly, DD.  lol
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dubbledee
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2009-Dec-12, 09:03 AM

  New Page
48034
SECRETS UNTOLD
$3.50
$1.62
48039
MY LIMIT
$4.00
$1.75
48037
PEPPERWOOD
$4.40
$1.85
48045
ABSENT FRIENDS
$10.00
$3.25
48038
SAM S EXPRESS
$11.00
$3.50
48040
PAY ME
$11.00
$3.50
48043
KENTISH ROSE
$12.00
$3.75
48042
DECEPTION BAY
$13.00
$4.00
48044
UNCLE JAN
$17.00
$5.00
48035
ROCKDALE
$21.00
$6.00
48041
DEACON
$21.00
$6.00
48036
RAGS TO RICHES
$34.00
$9.20
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dubbledee
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2009-Dec-12, 09:04 AM

New Page
48074
SHOOT OUT
$4.75
$1.94
48076
TEMPLE OF BOOM
$4.80
$1.95
48081
PRINCESS QUALO
$4.80
$1.95
48067
CAPTAIN SONADOR
$5.50
$2.10
48075
SPOT ON TARGET
$8.00
$2.75
48072
OUR MR CASHMAN
$10.00
$3.25
48068
CHOISTAR
$13.00
$4.00
48077
TIERQUALO
$13.00
$4.00
48080
EMMA S HEART
$21.00
$6.00
48073
SARGE IN CHARGE
$26.00
$7.20
48078
DECRYPTION
$31.00
$8.50
48079
DUAL CHAMBER
$31.00
$8.50
48070
DUEL SHOW
$34.00
$9.20
48071
NOISY SCOOTER
$101.00
$26.00
48069
DOUBLE HEART
$126.00
$32.00
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Steward
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2009-Dec-12, 09:58 AM

Shoot Out is way unders. My thinking is that from here on in he will not be getting warm until he gets to 1600m+
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OldLarsy
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2009-Dec-12, 10:05 AM

If he doesn't take care of that lot fairly easily, he obviously isn't as good as is made out, and he should be handed a RED card
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Steward
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2009-Dec-12, 10:14 AM

Thats a bloody good 3yo sprint field OL, and ultimately Shoot Out is not a sprinter.

Princess Qualo and Temple Of Boom look exciting sprint prospects to me.
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dubbledee
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2009-Dec-12, 08:10 PM

Some juicy worms there.

Hope everyone got some. Thumb Up
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dubbledee
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2009-Dec-15, 08:12 PM

Here's a good race to finish off tomorrow's quaddie.

While Casholet and Sounds Ready have good form, I have a niggling doubt about both at the end of a stiff 1300.

The race abounds in chances.  I'd suggest making a book around both #8 ACADEMY MAGIC and #7 OH SO ROSY.  As of now, the best fixed odds available for the drum are $2.75 and $3.7 respectively.  Shouldn't be hard to work something out at those odds. nowink  Hopefully one will lob.

AM has had one run back for a bottler over 1000 at SC.  He went around the outside rail.  He ran very well over the Carnival before a trip to Darwin.  He's eligible for easier, but drops in weight and has the red.  Expect a great run.

OSR is back from a break.  She's a very handy mare who tries her heart out.  I find the stable very difficult to catch, but if she's ready for this, there's a good chance she'll run into the place.


New Page
53600
CASHOLET
$4.00
$1.75
53601
SOUNDS READY
$4.80
$1.95
53604
ACADEMY MAGIC
$8.00
$2.75
53603
OH SO ROSY
$9.00
$3.00
53605
BOB AND DOLLY
$9.00
$3.00
53606
ALIOOP
$9.00
$3.00
53599
SUPREME SHOW
$13.00
$4.00
53611
DELTARARA
$14.00
$4.20
53602
HEARTSUN
$15.00
$4.50
53610
SIMIAN EXPRESS
$18.00
$5.20
53597
TITLE KING
$21.00
$6.00
53607
CONNOIA
$26.00
$7.20
53609
HELL WEEK
$31.00
$8.50
53598
CLANG EDITION
$41.00
$11.00
53612
EL COBAR
$201.00
$51.00
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chuggers
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2009-Dec-15, 08:26 PM

Well,

Sorry, to confuse the issue---I'm putting in my 20c worth--I think Bob & Dolly is a great chance for the drum @ 3.00.

Layed in the last 200 metres last start---good form above it from last start---ala---Princess Qualo & Temple of Doom

Yep--I'll take some.

beer

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calgary
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2009-Dec-16, 09:13 AM

Stop crushing my price for the X-mas comp DD  Thumb Down  lol
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GamblingMan
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2009-Dec-16, 11:11 AM

Main problem is track conditions. If the horse you are backing handles all then less of a concern but if it's purely a dry or wet tracker then waiting is best. Sometimes scratchings can change the pace of a race too which affects results. If you are going to bet early leave it to friday night or sat morning. Betting on thursday a bit early.
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gratlog
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2009-Dec-16, 04:14 PM

I backed Hallmark Star last night at the TAB and got $4.40 fixed odds.

it just paid $11.30 on Unitab.  biggrin
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Max Manewer
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2009-Dec-16, 04:22 PM

I backed Hallmark Star last night at the TAB and got $4.40 fixed odds.

it just paid $11.30 on Unitab.    biggrin


Strewth. Is that a record ?
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