dubbledee
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Original Post 2009-Dec-11, 02:05 PM
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On other threads there's been considerable discussion on "early" betting on the fixed odds markets offered by TABs and certain Corporates.
Rather than spread them hither and thither, let's log our early thoughts on this thread. No necessity to back them, but if we see a horse that represents a likely premium vs SP, well spread the word. 
As always, it's preferable to see them before the race, but there'll be occasions when discretion is justified. 
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« Last Edit: 2009-Dec-11, 02:11 PM by dubbledee »
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dubbledee
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 2009-Dec-11, 07:45 PM
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Have spent a bit more time on Race 2. While Gundy Son and Woorim look genuine odds-on chances to run the drum, I think AQUATERRA represents value at current place odds of $3.25. I've taken a sample. He had to be ridden forward last outing, but looks likely to take a sit tomorrow. I'll be surprised if he doesn't end up in the first 5 - hopefully the first 3. 
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dubbledee
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 2009-Dec-11, 07:57 PM
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MY LIMIT now into $1.62 on NSW TAB fixed. Centrebet has $1.95.
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Max Manewer
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 2009-Dec-11, 08:00 PM
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i notice tabcorp has fixed odds up for saturday, but no market on the 2yo race, after the last 2 weeks of getting it horribly wrong, i don't blame them.Da Judge on b/f forum.  They may be seeking your services shortly, DD.
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dubbledee
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 2009-Dec-12, 09:03 AM
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New Page
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48034 |
SECRETS UNTOLD |
$3.50 |
$1.62 |
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48039 |
MY LIMIT |
$4.00 |
$1.75 |
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48037 |
PEPPERWOOD |
$4.40 |
$1.85 |
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48045 |
ABSENT FRIENDS |
$10.00 |
$3.25 |
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48038 |
SAM S EXPRESS |
$11.00 |
$3.50 |
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48040 |
PAY ME |
$11.00 |
$3.50 |
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48043 |
KENTISH ROSE |
$12.00 |
$3.75 |
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48042 |
DECEPTION BAY |
$13.00 |
$4.00 |
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48044 |
UNCLE JAN |
$17.00 |
$5.00 |
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48035 |
ROCKDALE |
$21.00 |
$6.00 |
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48041 |
DEACON |
$21.00 |
$6.00 |
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48036 |
RAGS TO RICHES |
$34.00 |
$9.20 |
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dubbledee
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 2009-Dec-12, 09:04 AM
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New Page
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48074 |
SHOOT OUT |
$4.75 |
$1.94 |
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48076 |
TEMPLE OF BOOM |
$4.80 |
$1.95 |
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48081 |
PRINCESS QUALO |
$4.80 |
$1.95 |
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48067 |
CAPTAIN SONADOR |
$5.50 |
$2.10 |
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48075 |
SPOT ON TARGET |
$8.00 |
$2.75 |
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48072 |
OUR MR CASHMAN |
$10.00 |
$3.25 |
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48068 |
CHOISTAR |
$13.00 |
$4.00 |
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48077 |
TIERQUALO |
$13.00 |
$4.00 |
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48080 |
EMMA S HEART |
$21.00 |
$6.00 |
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48073 |
SARGE IN CHARGE |
$26.00 |
$7.20 |
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48078 |
DECRYPTION |
$31.00 |
$8.50 |
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48079 |
DUAL CHAMBER |
$31.00 |
$8.50 |
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48070 |
DUEL SHOW |
$34.00 |
$9.20 |
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48071 |
NOISY SCOOTER |
$101.00 |
$26.00 |
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48069 |
DOUBLE HEART |
$126.00 |
$32.00 |
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Authorized
Steward
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Posts : 19693
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 2009-Dec-12, 09:58 AM
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Shoot Out is way unders. My thinking is that from here on in he will not be getting warm until he gets to 1600m+
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OldLarsy
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 2009-Dec-12, 10:05 AM
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If he doesn't take care of that lot fairly easily, he obviously isn't as good as is made out, and he should be handed a RED card
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Authorized
Steward
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 2009-Dec-12, 10:14 AM
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Thats a bloody good 3yo sprint field OL, and ultimately Shoot Out is not a sprinter.
Princess Qualo and Temple Of Boom look exciting sprint prospects to me.
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dubbledee
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 2009-Dec-12, 08:10 PM
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Some juicy worms there.
Hope everyone got some.
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dubbledee
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 2009-Dec-15, 08:12 PM
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Here's a good race to finish off tomorrow's quaddie.
While Casholet and Sounds Ready have good form, I have a niggling doubt about both at the end of a stiff 1300.
The race abounds in chances. I'd suggest making a book around both #8 ACADEMY MAGIC and #7 OH SO ROSY. As of now, the best fixed odds available for the drum are $2.75 and $3.7 respectively. Shouldn't be hard to work something out at those odds. Hopefully one will lob.
AM has had one run back for a bottler over 1000 at SC. He went around the outside rail. He ran very well over the Carnival before a trip to Darwin. He's eligible for easier, but drops in weight and has the red. Expect a great run.
OSR is back from a break. She's a very handy mare who tries her heart out. I find the stable very difficult to catch, but if she's ready for this, there's a good chance she'll run into the place.New Page
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53600 |
CASHOLET |
$4.00 |
$1.75 |
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53601 |
SOUNDS READY |
$4.80 |
$1.95 |
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53604 |
ACADEMY MAGIC |
$8.00 |
$2.75 |
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53603 |
OH SO ROSY |
$9.00 |
$3.00 |
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53605 |
BOB AND DOLLY |
$9.00 |
$3.00 |
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53606 |
ALIOOP |
$9.00 |
$3.00 |
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53599 |
SUPREME SHOW |
$13.00 |
$4.00 |
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53611 |
DELTARARA |
$14.00 |
$4.20 |
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53602 |
HEARTSUN |
$15.00 |
$4.50 |
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53610 |
SIMIAN EXPRESS |
$18.00 |
$5.20 |
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53597 |
TITLE KING |
$21.00 |
$6.00 |
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53607 |
CONNOIA |
$26.00 |
$7.20 |
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53609 |
HELL WEEK |
$31.00 |
$8.50 |
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53598 |
CLANG EDITION |
$41.00 |
$11.00 |
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53612 |
EL COBAR |
$201.00 |
$51.00 |
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chuggers
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 2009-Dec-15, 08:26 PM
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Well, Sorry, to confuse the issue---I'm putting in my 20c worth--I think Bob & Dolly is a great chance for the drum @ 3.00. Layed in the last 200 metres last start---good form above it from last start---ala---Princess Qualo & Temple of Doom Yep--I'll take some. 
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calgary
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 2009-Dec-16, 09:13 AM
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Stop crushing my price for the X-mas comp DD
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GamblingMan
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 2009-Dec-16, 11:11 AM
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Main problem is track conditions. If the horse you are backing handles all then less of a concern but if it's purely a dry or wet tracker then waiting is best. Sometimes scratchings can change the pace of a race too which affects results. If you are going to bet early leave it to friday night or sat morning. Betting on thursday a bit early.
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gratlog
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 2009-Dec-16, 04:14 PM
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I backed Hallmark Star last night at the TAB and got $4.40 fixed odds. it just paid $11.30 on Unitab.
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Max Manewer
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 2009-Dec-16, 04:22 PM
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I backed Hallmark Star last night at the TAB and got $4.40 fixed odds. it just paid $11.30 on Unitab. Strewth. Is that a record ?
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