dubbledee
Editor
Group 1 user 285
 Online
Posts : 23918
|
|
|
 Original Post 2009-Dec-11, 02:05 PM
|
On other threads there's been considerable discussion on "early" betting on the fixed odds markets offered by TABs and certain Corporates.
Rather than spread them hither and thither, let's log our early thoughts on this thread. No necessity to back them, but if we see a horse that represents a likely premium vs SP, well spread the word. 
As always, it's preferable to see them before the race, but there'll be occasions when discretion is justified. 
|
|
|
|
« Last Edit: 2009-Dec-11, 02:11 PM by dubbledee »
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
| |
Max Manewer
Group 2 user 414
 Offline
Posts : 4998
|
|
|
2009-Dec-11, 02:08 PM
|
Never bet closer than 5 minutes out, so..........  |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1 user 285
Online
Posts : 23918
|
|
|
2009-Dec-11, 02:09 PM
|
The last at EF tomorrow is a cracker race. Numerous highly-promising 3yos are lining up.
Caution might be sensible, with the chance of rain. (If only.)
I've already sampled TEMPLE OF BOOM at $2.35 the drum.
Emma's Heart is gonna be good odds, and I rate her a value chance.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1 user 285
Online
Posts : 23918
|
|
|
2009-Dec-11, 02:10 PM
|
Never bet closer than 5 minutes out, so..........
Nothing to stop giving hints. I'll amend the opening post. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Tevez17
Steward
Group 1 user 159
Offline
Posts : 6437
|
|
|
2009-Dec-11, 02:17 PM
|
SHOOT OUT $5.00 $2.00, i expect there to be a bit of money for it tomorrow, an even 2 the place looks alright even from the wide draw.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1 user 285
Online
Posts : 23918
|
|
|
2009-Dec-11, 02:29 PM
|
My impression is that Centrebet is the best option for the longer-priced commodities.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1 user 285
Online
Posts : 23918
|
|
|
2009-Dec-11, 02:31 PM
|
Video-watchers will be all over Somewhere Safer EF Race 2. I recall Arakaan being a fan when it was doing most of its racing at GC.
I went into UNi to take the $11 the drum, but that's gonnnnnnne.
Race looks tough for it, so I'll let it go around without me. The Heathcote trio look great chances. 
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
gratlog
Group 1 user 5
Offline
Posts : 12700
|
|
|
2009-Dec-11, 02:51 PM
|
11:07:35 48214 * Horse Racing:CREDIT UNION HANDICAP SOUND JOURNEY $2.50
48055 * Horse Racing:JUST NOW HANDICAP (LISTED) VISA LISA $5.00
Just a small all upper on Unitab
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
gratlog
Group 1 user 5
Offline
Posts : 12700
|
|
|
2009-Dec-11, 03:05 PM
|
On advice I just tried Centrebet for a fixed odds for the place all up bet.
This is just a test run but it looks like it could be fun
Race 4 - S G ..., 1 Sound J... @ 1.45 (Place)
Race 6 - Tab ..., 9 Pinwheel @ 1.16 (Place)
Race 7 - Nort..., 10 Visa L... @ 1.85 (Place)
Combined Dividend: 3.112
Potential Payout: Not available
Will have a look for a few likely placegetters in the morning.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Bubbasmith
Group 2 user 197
Offline
Posts : 2296
|
|
|
2009-Dec-11, 03:24 PM
|
Although it might be possible to get under the guard of fixed odds market a day ahead of a meeting, I do not fancy the deduction rates they apply for scratchings up to race start. If they are betting to 130% and a 6/1 chance, in their market, comes out they apply a deduction rate of 14%, whereas it should be 14/130= 10.7 %. Who knows what rate they will apply as they could easily claim the original 6/1 chance had been backed down to 4/1 before it was scratched and then they would apply a deduction rate of 20 %.  I will stick with Maxie and bet in the last 5 minutes before the jump, and if there is a late scratching at the barrier I will bet against the substitute in any double or treble as that runner will be carrier the extra money of the scratching. The odds of my selection/s will remain the same,yet because of the scratching at the barrier,my selections chances of winning improve and in a reassessed market will be shorter. |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1 user 285
Online
Posts : 23918
|
|
|
2009-Dec-11, 03:28 PM
|
Absolutely a key issue, Bubba.
I copped a nice whack in the eye on Wednesday last. Even so, the net result was way ahead of final fixed odds. There have been situations when it's been the reverse of course. 
Brought up the other thread where this matter is discussed at length.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1 user 285
Online
Posts : 23918
|
|
|
2009-Dec-11, 03:33 PM
|
The last at EF tomorrow is a cracker race. Numerous highly-promising 3yos are lining up.
Caution might be sensible, with the chance of rain. (If only.)
I've already sampled TEMPLE OF BOOM at $2.35 the drum.
TOB now into $2.10 |
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
Mark
Group 1 user 489
Offline
Posts : 9802
|
|
|
2009-Dec-11, 03:34 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
|
gratlog
Group 1 user 5
Offline
Posts : 12700
|
|
|
2009-Dec-11, 04:07 PM
|
Might get some morew storms later tonight as well.
Out here in beautiful downtown Logan city, it feels like rain coming soon.
Been another hot day but humidity has only been low.
|
|
|
|
|
Logged
|
|
|
|
|
