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Racehorse TALK
Racehorse TALK » Racing Talk » Comps & Clubs » Topic: Framing Markets
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Author Topic: Framing Markets  (Read 4090 times)
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calgary
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Original Post 2009-Dec-21, 09:44 AM

I always like to use the holidays to improve my punting ability - and I think one area I should work on is framing my own markets.

I am going to pick out a race each day to look at and come up with my own market.

I will then back anything that looks to be a good overlay to win $100 at the odds I mark it as. So if I have a horse marked at $2.00 that is paying $3.00 I will have $50 to win on it.

OUT - 100
IN - 0
POT: -100%
« Last Edit: 2009-Dec-23, 04:29 PM by calgary » Logged
 
calgary
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2009-Dec-21, 09:52 AM

Bairnsdale - Race 7

Mr Sandals 3.7
Elkayel 18
Causeway Cat 41  shy
Dunstall 3.7
Shagstar 101
Fraar Knell 18
Nanbrooke Nic 11
Sheza Ranga 11
Fear Of Defeat 26
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Max Manewer
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2009-Dec-21, 09:56 AM

89% ? Mr. Generous !
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Wyatt Earp
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2009-Dec-21, 10:34 AM

I'll take a little bit of the 41 about Causeway Cat.
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calgary
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2009-Dec-21, 10:40 AM

89% ? Mr. Generous !


Have to build in a wide margin for my own errors  lol
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GamblingMan
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2009-Dec-21, 10:43 AM

Hard to price horses unless you know the horses well.
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Bundy
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2009-Dec-21, 10:48 AM

Hard to price horses unless you know the horses well.




"If your method is a proven winner and the horses selected are not injured trust your method and disregard the opinions of strangers especially media tipsters and those who lurk on racetracks, forums or tabs.

At the end of the day it's your money and your judgement that's at stake."


You aint listening to yourself GM lol


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Max Manewer
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2009-Dec-21, 11:02 AM

I'll take a little bit of the 41 about Causeway Cat.


41 must be a typo. Near to fave in early markets.
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calgary
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2009-Dec-21, 11:11 AM

41 must be a typo. Near to fave in early markets.


Not on my ratings  nowink
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Max Manewer
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2009-Dec-21, 11:22 AM

Not on my ratings  nowink


If I see someone laying it like crazy, I'll know who !  lol
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Steward
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2009-Dec-21, 02:51 PM

When framing a market to bet with as Calgary is doing here, What total percentage should we be aiming at ?

And should we be including all horses in the market, even those clearly out of their depth ?
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OldLarsy
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2009-Dec-21, 03:12 PM

I will then back anything that looks to be a good overlay to win $100 at the odds I mark it as. So if I have a horse marked at $2.00 that is paying $3.00 I will have $50 to win on it.


You should be having $100 on it @ $3, not $50
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Steward
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2009-Dec-21, 03:14 PM

You should be having $100 on it @ $3, not $50


Why is that ?
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calgary
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2009-Dec-21, 03:21 PM

When framing a market to bet with as Calgary is doing here, What total percentage should we be aiming at ?

And should we be including all horses in the market, even those clearly out of their depth ?


I use around 90 per cent - the reason is it then allows for some margin (around 10%) of error in your ratings system.

If you think a horse is clearly out of its depth just give it a very low probability of winning (i.e. 0.5 %)
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OldLarsy
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2009-Dec-21, 03:32 PM

Why is that ?


Because his staking plan is to back it to win $100 on what price he rates it at.

He rates it $2.00 which means he has to have $100 on it at atleast that price. Anything less it's a no bet.

Back in the early 80's I used to do Don Scott ratings with a couple of mates, and we'd back to win $100 on each horse that fit the criteria.

For example, we rated Row Of Waves 6/1 in the Doncaster, which means we had to have $16 on him at atleast that price.
We got set $16 @ 100/1 on track  beer
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