jfc
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 Original Post 2010-Jan-29, 07:21 AM
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If you work out the "correct" odds for an exotic bet based on the assumption that it is analagous to drawing marbles from a barrel, where the number of marbles representing each conveyance is proportional to its win odds, you will arrive at the wrong answer. And that is especially true where there is a short-priced favourite. They miss the place far more often than the marbles-from-the-barrel theory would allow. If they did follow the theory, quarter odds the place for even money chances would be a soda.
This important issue deserves its own threead. Here is a pertinent free advanced calculator: http://www.betting-models.webs.com/freedownloads/3_places_discount_web.htmAnd the author's observations: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f23/working-out-betfair-place-odds-23252/I've just spotted this and may comment further after I've properly assessed it. |
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Wenona
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2010-Jan-29, 09:04 AM
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Could we have some sort of sticky for links to this sort of stuff.
They get buried too quickly
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MagiC~*
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2010-Jan-29, 09:24 AM
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Start a new thread Wenona, then report it to a mod and they can sticky it for you. I would do it, but have no idea what to call the thread, and or what links to add  |
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Bundy
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2010-Jan-29, 09:27 AM
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Magic, while you are there could you move the "LEGLESS LAYS" thread to "Racing Tips+Ratings" please.  (It is currently under Comps etc  ) |
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Steward
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2010-Jan-29, 11:02 AM
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Could we have some sort of sticky for links to this sort of stuff.
They get buried too quickly
At the top or near the top of the threads there is a BOOKMARK option, My favorite threads are bookmarked. |
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jfc
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2010-Jul-23, 06:39 AM
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If Column A has ranked Win probabilities, and B-H contain the following
=POWER(A1,0.81)
=B1/SUM(B:B)
=A1/(1-C1)
=C1*(SUM(D:D)-D1)
=A1/(1-A1)
=A1*(SUM(F:F)-F1)
=G1-E1
Then you can contrast 2nd probabilities for Harville and Discount Harville (i.e. Henery/Bacon-Shone/Woods/etc )
E: 2nd prob Discount Harville
G: 2nd prob Harville
H: Harville - Discount
For the record, my personal work.
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Steward
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2010-Jul-23, 03:27 PM
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I wish I listened during math at scholl.
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Mark
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2010-Jul-23, 03:36 PM
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I wish I listened during math at scholl.
And English it seems  Ignore it though mate. Thinks he's an absolute mastermind. From the way he goes on you'd think he's a billionaire (with all the money he makes from wagering) |
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Steward
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2010-Jul-23, 03:42 PM
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I find it all very interesting just too baffling for my mind.
Most exotic bets are through the parimutuel aren't they ?
If so math is not really going to tell us what it is likely to pay is it, it may tell us what it should pay ?
The TABs do not display the possible trifecta dividends before a race do they ?
If they are not displaying the likely dividend what is the point of trying to work out the odds ?
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jfc
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2010-Jul-23, 04:32 PM
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I find it all very interesting just too baffling for my mind.
Most exotic bets are through the parimutuel aren't they ?
If so math is not really going to tell us what it is likely to pay is it, it may tell us what it should pay ?
The TABs do not display the possible trifecta dividends before a race do they ?
If they are not displaying the likely dividend what is the point of trying to work out the odds ?
Tabcorp has public approximates for Quinellas and Exactas. And after half a decade it had managed to to again display Trifecta and F4 Trends. |
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Wenona
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2010-Jul-23, 06:52 PM
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I find it all very interesting just too baffling for my mind.
Most exotic bets are through the parimutuel aren't they ?
If so math is not really going to tell us what it is likely to pay is it, it may tell us what it should pay ?
The TABs do not display the possible trifecta dividends before a race do they ?
If they are not displaying the likely dividend what is the point of trying to work out the odds ?
Maybe some people just think it's fun. |
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dubbledee
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2010-Jul-23, 07:18 PM
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Can someone please tell me if $1.9 ANOTHER TAKEOVER the place is a good bet. 
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winner
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2010-Jul-23, 07:37 PM
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I dont know if your serious DD.
But from my quick calcs and form I would be looking at around $2.40 so it looks a bit short to be.
Good luck hope with AT, fingers cross for a clear trouble free run.
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Wenona
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2010-Jul-25, 09:34 AM
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If Column A has ranked Win probabilities, and B-H contain the following
=POWER(A1,0.81)
=B1/SUM(B:B)
=A1/(1-C1)
=C1*(SUM(D:D)-D1)
=A1/(1-A1)
=A1*(SUM(F:F)-F1)
=G1-E1
Then you can contrast 2nd probabilities for Harville and Discount Harville (i.e. Henery/Bacon-Shone/Woods/etc )
E: 2nd prob Discount Harville
G: 2nd prob Harville
H: Harville - Discount
For the record, my personal work.
Have you determined an efficient way of calculating probabilities and difference for third? |
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jfc
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2010-Jul-25, 10:22 AM
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Have you determined an efficient way of calculating probabilities and difference for third? No. If I have serious stuff to do I write programs rather than fart about with spreadsheets. I just noted that I could use a gimmick to get a neat result for Harville for 2nd place. Anyone interested can check this discussion for spreadsheeting Discount Harville. http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=35264It drifted too aimlessly for me to get any ready made answer. But it may provide some clues for those trying to roll their own. |
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