If you work out the "correct" odds for an exotic bet based on the assumption that it is analagous to drawing marbles from a barrel, where the number of marbles representing each conveyance is proportional to its win odds, you will arrive at the wrong answer. And that is especially true where there is a short-priced favourite. They miss the place far more often than the marbles-from-the-barrel theory would allow. If they did follow the theory, quarter odds the place for even money chances would be a soda.
This important issue deserves its own threead.
Here is a pertinent free advanced calculator:
http://www.betting-models.webs.com/freedownloads/3_places_discount_web.htmAnd the author's observations:
http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f23/working-out-betfair-place-odds-23252/I've just spotted this and may comment further after I've properly assessed it.
