Race horse Talk Horse Racing Forum Australia

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Denman looks better suited over 1200m to 1500m.

I think the key to this entire race hasn't really been touched on properly.

I find it strange that Denman has had two serious hit outs and most of his rivals, at the top of the market, haven't really been seen yet. Star Spangled was a good first up effort. So You Think, Trusting, Manhattan Rain are all still getting ready.

Surely there is a discrepancy there. Denman's best effort last Spring was in the Golden Rose and I think he was fourth up (maybe third) so he seems to be on track. I am not sure whether So You Think even got close to his peak until the Cox. He was good first up, then slightly flat second up (despite winning), never given a chance third up and then peaked fourth up.

I think So You Think may be under done for the Guineas because they want to target that race and probably a few races after (Rosehill Guineas?). They have wanted the Guineas with Denman since the last Guineas.

Manhattan Rain and Trusting look like they may go to the Newmarket. Is this the right prep?

It could prove the difference for Denman.

SYT was beaten in record time over 1400m   not close to his peak

We are talking about one of the best horses (maybe the best) in Australia.

You may think that getting beaten by More Than Great over 1400m first up was his peak, I suggest he peaked when dominating the Cox Plate by 2.5 lengths. I ask you GM, do you think if he brought his first up performance to the Guineas he would be able to knock off Denman? Do you believe More than Great is better than Denman?

He will be second up in the Guineas. Do you think his second up performance last prep will be good enough to win one of the best Guineas we have seen? Last prep he beat Gathering by 0.75 and Heraklion. His fourth up effort might be.

But second up? Hmmmmm, not sure. 

I don't think you can be comparing when SYT may have peaked last prep to this one.
1st up was his 2nd ever race start, 2nd up he jumped to 1800m and won extremely easily( great sectionals) while still racing greenly.
If he was any further into his racing prep, 1600m might be too short for him to beat those types of horses
I think you have to put more faith in the trainer, he has a pretty fair idea what he is doing!

Fair call.

On reflection his prep last year was tough. 1400, 1800, 1600, 2040, 1600. And what a great job he did. He seems like a 2000m horse so 1600m 2nd up probably isn't as much of a stretch as it would be for Denman and others.

I might just be in the Denman camp at the moment now though. I just think he might have a few targets with SYT whereas that isn't the case with Denman.

u want him smashing the tr?

How many three year olds win the Cox Plate? And what is their record going forward?

Denman has been beating donkeys & SYT has to come back and not be a Savabeel

Neither are genuine milers, if there's one in the race that is (& i've not a clue who that might be) then it's the most likely to win.

Including that donkey that regularly finishes behind your love child SSB? 

Red Anchor won his only two starts after his Cox Plate victory. Octagonal was every bit as good the following autumn and Savabeel but for injury would have been outstanding as his fine second to Elvstroem in the Orr showed.

So You Think, provided they aim him at the right races ( and I am not sure they will ) will be a superstar stayer.

Exactly. And this bloke won after very few starts.

Even his 2nd to All American was a fantastic run. They ran a quick time.

I'd be surprised if he didn't give Denman windburn.

That said, I think Denman is a very good piece of horse flesh and I'm enjoying the fact we have a few potential champions in the ranks.

both fantastic young horses but it's guesswork we know Denman has come back in good for and i think improved n his last prep. SYT well we have to find out if he's come back I think he will but some horses have one terrific prep and never show that  form again so we have to wait and see. Plus Denmans by that great horse Lohnro ( thats for Calgary )

So You Think out, trialled terrible apparently