AJC Australian Derby - 2010 - #1 Horse Racing Forum in Australia for Race-Horse News

westie

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Original Post 2010-Mar-09, 05:51 PM

7 - 3.40PM - DAVID JONES AJC AUSTRALIAN DERBY - 2400 METRES

Of $1300000 and $14500 trophies. 1st $780000 and trophies of $13500 to owner $500 to trainer $500 to jockey, 2nd $260000, 3rd $130000, 4th $65000, 5th $26000, 6th $13000, 7th $13000, 8th $13000. For Three-Years-Old. Set Weights. (GROUP 1). No Allowances for apprentices. Field Limit: 18 + 4 EM

No	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Barrier	Weight	Handicapper Rating
1	MONACO CONSUL (NZ)	Michael Moroney	Damien Oliver	4	56.5	100
2	ROCK CLASSIC	Bart Cummings	Michael Rodd	7	56.5	106
3	SHOOT OUT	John Wallace	Stathi Katsidis	9	56.5	105
4	EXTRA ZERO	David Hayes	Glen Boss	5	56.5	95
5	ZABRASIVE (NZ)	John O'Shea	Hugh Bowman	3	56.5	107
6	HANDSOME ZULU (NZ)	John Sargent	H W Lai	11	56.5	80
7	COUNT ENCOSTA	John P Thompson	Brenton Avdulla (a)	1	56.5	90
8	DESCARADO (NZ)	Gai Waterhouse	Nash Rawiller	8	56.5	88
9	SAINT ENCOSTA	John P Thompson	Craig Williams	14	56.5	73
10	SHERPA TENZING (NZ)	Jim Conlan	Mark Zahra	13	56.5	64
11	LANDLOCKED (NZ)	Anthony Cummings	Jay Ford	15	56.5	64
12	HOME ON A WING	Anthony Cummings	Tim Clark	2	56.5	60
13	SUYAMA (NZ)	Bart Cummings	Michelle Payne	12	56.5	55
14	CEDARBERG	Pat Carey	Glyn Schofield	6	56.5	63
15	KEEP THE PEACE (NZ)	Shaune Ritchie	Jason Waddell	10	54.5	95


« Last Edit: 2010-Apr-06, 01:19 PM by westie »	Logged

Jim Pike

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2010-Oct-27, 06:44 PM

Carnegie please give us the races that you include as important in your assessment???


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The Carnegie Express

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2010-Oct-27, 07:01 PM

Trends are very important in the finding the cup winner.

1. The first thing I am going to do is eliminate any horse that has not had a run in Australia? Only one foreign horse has won the cup in the last 22 years with no lead up run, and that was Dermott Welds with Vintage Crop. He was unable to win the Cup again first up. Media Puzzle had won the Geelong Cup before winning in 2002. The lead up races are:

Memsie 1400 Caulfield WFA
Feehan 1600 M.V WFA
Underwood 1800 Caulfield WFA
Turnbull 2000 Flemington SWP
The Bat Cummings 2500 Flemington HCP
Yalumba 2000 Caulfield WFA
Caulfield Cup 2400 Caulfield HCP
Geelong Cup 2400 Geelong HCP
Cox Plate 2040 M.V. WFA
M.V. Cup 2500 M.V. HCP
SAAB Quality 2500 Flemington HCP
McKinnon 2000 Flemington WFA

2. The Australian lead up form is also important. The average is taken by totalling all finishing position in Australia during the cup campaign and dividing it by amount of starts. For example, in 2006 Delta Blues had one run in Australia for a 4th finish so 4/1 = 4. Last season Efficient won with the following lead up form 0409 which is [10+4+10+9]/4 = 8.25. Only twice in the last 22 years have horses with an average over 6 won the race. Remember, runners not having a start in Australia are not included.

3. Horses placed in the top four in two of their last three runs have won 9 of the last 12 and 17 of the last 22 Melbourne Cups.

4. Horses that ran in the top four placings at their last start have won 9 of the last 12 and 17 of the last 22 Melbourne Cups.

5. Eliminate the ACJ Derby winner as they have never won the Melbourne Cup since switching the race from the spring.


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Jim Pike

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2010-Oct-27, 07:06 PM

CE you are not talking about individual races you are talking current form, a totally different question, like where they had run in those same races the previous year (in a different Preparation)would that matter??


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The Carnegie Express

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2010-Oct-28, 08:14 AM

I guess not. But any horse that has previous not run a place in a Melbourne Cup I would flick.


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