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Racehorse TALK
Racehorse TALK » Racing Talk Australia » Topic: Best Value On Saturday


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Author Topic: Best Value On Saturday  (Read 1132 times)
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Bubbasmith
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Original Post 2010-Mar-12, 06:06 PM

Without doubt the best value tomorrow is betting the trifecta on Unitab on Melbourne race eight ( The Australian Cup ). There is a carryover Jackpot of $ 93,236 going into the pool. Assuming the Unitab takeout on trifectas is 20%, a further amount of $466,180 will have to invested to negate the positive effect of the jackpot ie the total pool can get to $558,416.Under normal circumstances, where jackpots are added to quaddies / first fours / Big 6's, the chances of any punter actually collecting and benefeting from the jackpot are remote, however with a trifecta a punter's chances are much better.
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JWesleyHarding
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2010-Mar-12, 08:19 PM

Thanks, but no thanks, Bubba.

There is also great value to be had by an observer of a bank robbery who sees a tightly bound wad of $100 notes fall from the robber's duffel bag.

Exotic pools should be divied out to the participants, not to those coming in on the grouter.
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Bubbasmith
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2010-Mar-12, 09:48 PM

JWH

I have not been to the races on track in years, yet it is a free day at Flemington tomorrow.To use your analogy re betting into jackpot pools, I should not go as I would be coming in on the "grouter", as regular attendees have to pay their $15 each week for the privilege for their on-going attendances.
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assumethecrown
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2010-Mar-12, 09:59 PM

Without doubt the best value tomorrow is betting the trifecta on Unitab on Melbourne race eight ( The Australian Cup ). There is a carryover Jackpot of $ 93,236 going into the pool. Assuming the Unitab takeout on trifectas is 20%, a further amount of $466,180 will have to invested to negate the positive effect of the jackpot ie the total pool can get to $558,416.Under normal circumstances, where jackpots are added to quaddies / first fours / Big 6's, the chances of any punter actually collecting and benefeting from the jackpot are remote, however with a trifecta a punter's chances are much better.


Think you will find that unitab declare their jackpot inclusive of the takeout.  So the $93,236 carryover is infact only $74,589 of "free" money.  Therefore once the total pool reaches $466,180 tomoorw then the takeout will exceed the jackpot component.
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Grega9430
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2010-Mar-13, 06:36 AM

If no-one gets any slice of a Trifecta on Unitab the total pool jackpots, eg Race 5 Singapore 12 March, the pool was $4248 and the jackpot is $4248.

It appears that if only one person has any part of a trifecta, say 1%, then Unitab take their full 20% commission of the total pool pay the person his 1% and then Jackpot the rest and take another 20% slice of it. Total commission on the original pool is 36%.

If that is the case then it is a significant advantage of flexi-betting for Unitab. I believe that the other Tab's take their commission from the original pool and the jackpot amounts are not subject to further commission.
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JWesleyHarding
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2010-Mar-13, 06:43 AM

JWH

I have not been to the races on track in years, yet it is a free day at Flemington tomorrow.To use your analogy re betting into jackpot pools, I should not go as I would be coming in on the "grouter", as regular attendees have to pay their $15 each week for the privilege for their on-going attendances.




No, no comparison, Bubba.
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Bubbasmith
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2010-Mar-13, 07:30 AM

Grega
If that it is the case, that the gross carryover pool is carried over and not the net amount, that certainly is putting the best possible "spin" on the jackpot amount.
I might send them off an email to get their response.
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Grega9430
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2010-Mar-13, 08:21 AM

Bubba, no doubt that is the case as ATC has stated and the Singapore example shows, but the "enhanced spin" is not the significant issue, more importantly IMO is whether they double dip on commissions if only one person gets a small slice of the pool.
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Bubbasmith
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2010-Mar-13, 08:51 AM

I have sent off an email seeking clarification from Unitab. I reckon what they do is they will build up an amount of money that has not been won, over a period of time, from all bet types and because varying rates of deductions would apply to those lost bets they simply amalagamate them, advertise the amount as a 'jackpot "  add it to the new money and deduct the applicable deduction rate.
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dubbledee
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2010-Mar-13, 08:58 AM

There's no argument that the amount of jackpot is before any commission is removed. Thumb Up

Grega's point regarding those races were a "partial pay" is given out is one that should be ringing alarm bells.  If, as if possible, a double dip of commission is made, there'll be a protest outside UNiTAB as soon as I can arrange it.  Hopefully Bubba's enquiry will answer the question.

And, maybe other TABs do the same??
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jfc
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2010-Mar-13, 09:11 AM

Just stumbled on these offers:

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/content/jackpot-races

Home Tote + 5% on Quinellas, Exactas, Trifectas and First Fours on Metro non-Perth Saturdays.

Including jackpots.

At first glance seems like a neat deal.

Not sure why that UNiTAB Trifecta isn't expressly mentioned, but it kinda' appears to qualify.
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Bubbasmith
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2010-Mar-13, 09:34 AM

Yes is double dipping come into play here ?

Let's assume in a hypothetical race last Tuesday at Orange $10,000 was invested , the deduction rate is 20 % and 10 % of the pool was won.

A.Net pool is $8000
B Payout to winners = $ 800
C.$7,200 not paid out

How much is shown as carryover to say, race 8 in Melb today ?
 
1. $9,200 ( $10,000 - $ 800 ) then subject to a 20 % deduction today
2. $7200   with no deduction today
3. $ 8000
4. some other amount ?
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dubbledee
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2010-Mar-13, 09:41 AM

Yep, that's the question, Bubba.

On UNi, we know that only a WHOLE percentage is paid out in a partial pay.  On TABCORP it could b 2.1345%.

I'm trying to get my mind around whether we can answer the "double dipping" question from the info presented to us on UNi.

They wouldn't, would they? unsure
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Bubbasmith
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2010-Mar-13, 09:49 AM

Jfc

Unitab jackpot on Melb race 8 would not apply to that corporate bookie as Unitab is NOT home tote.
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jfc
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2010-Mar-13, 09:52 AM

Jfc

Unitab jackpot on Melb race 8 would not apply to that corporate bookie as Unitab is NOT home tote.


Oops.
Silly Me.
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