Hong Kong Racing Thread - International Racing - Racehorse TALK
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Hong Kong Racing Thread - International Racing - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Hong Kong Racing Thread  (Read 368645 times)

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Online Gintara

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« 2021-Sep-13, 09:06 AM Reply #1100 »
I thought he'd settle closer Wily  :dry:

Good run considering but needs to settle closer or go to 1400m  :chin:

Online wily ole dog

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« 2021-Sep-13, 03:56 PM Reply #1101 »
I think the 1400 is the go :thumbsup:

Online wily ole dog

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« 2021-Sep-15, 05:37 PM Reply #1102 »
Anything for me gin?

I think I said I dislike the racing up there given theyíre all first up and I donít have the time or patience to do the trial form :shy:

In saying that 2 have popped up in my black book

Sacred Ibis in the 6th and Stormtrouper in the 5th.
Have they popped up on your trial form?

Online Gintara

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« 2021-Sep-15, 10:03 PM Reply #1103 »
Wily - Stormtrouper definitely has, I've had a nibble at it.  :beer:

Race 4 #1 Fireball. Was a leader when he first landed in HK but he's learnt to take a sit. He can lead or take a sit here from barrier, Purton can dictate from the front or peel on the bend and kick for home. No trial to speak of but went out a winner before the break. At $2.8 he's worth a shot.

Race 5 - #7 Stormtrouper gets a tick off his trial, getting home strongly on the inside. A few of the others in the market have convictions so $4.60 will do me.

Race 7 - I've had a small bet for interest on #1 Simply Fluke, he has a booming finish and $5 is nice, thrown a few coins at #2 Classic Posh, rare to see a Purton ride at $17 but it is drawn 12 which can be tricky.

Race 8 - If you're fair dinkum you probably shouldn't bet here (nor race 7) but both Purton and JM are on $7.50 shots in #1 Greatful Heart & #12 Sight Success, chance both end up 3 deep being drawn wide but I can see Moreira pushing on to lead, worth a nibble at that price and I've a BBer in #7 Scores of Fun, 1st up off a break, unbeaten first up and is $26, so it's got pocket change.






Online Gintara

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« 2021-Sep-19, 10:59 AM Reply #1104 »
Wily - Stormtrouper definitely has, I've had a nibble at it.  :beer:

Race 4 #1 Fireball. Was a leader when he first landed in HK but he's learnt to take a sit. He can lead or take a sit here from barrier, Purton can dictate from the front or peel on the bend and kick for home. No trial to speak of but went out a winner before the break. At $2.8 he's worth a shot. Lack of trial told IMHO, knocked up for 6th

Race 5 - #7 Stormtrouper gets a tick off his trial, getting home strongly on the inside. A few of the others in the market have convictions so $4.60 will do me. Found one better running into 2nd, follow next time

Race 7 - I've had a small bet for interest on #1 Simply Fluke, he has a booming finish and $5 is nice, thrown a few coins at #2 Classic Posh, rare to see a Purton ride at $17 but it is drawn 12 which can be tricky. Simply Fluke was desperately unlucky unable to find clear air when needed, we may even get a better price next time, ZP saves the day with a $16 winner  :clap2:

Race 8 - If you're fair dinkum you probably shouldn't bet here (nor race 7) but both Purton and JM are on $7.50 shots in #1 Greatful Heart & #12 Sight Success, chance both end up 3 deep being drawn wide but I can see Moreira pushing on to lead, worth a nibble at that price and I've a BBer in #7 Scores of Fun, 1st up off a break, unbeaten first up and is $26, so it's got pocket change. Should have listened to my own comments  :shutup:

Online fours

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« 2021-Sep-19, 11:45 AM Reply #1105 »
Hmmmm,

We might be seeing a changing of the guard in Hong Kong jockey wise.

Morieira continues to slip down the consistancy ladder and Purton is now only equal top strike rate for the last 50 rides....

Teetan has equaled him ... for now.


Obviously if Hayes/Shinn combo prospers together that can go up the ladder some too - early signs look ok for that.

Fours

Online Gintara

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« 2021-Sep-19, 11:47 AM Reply #1106 »
Tough meeting at the 'Tin.

Race 1 #6 Fairy Floss has thrived since being stepped up to the mile and above on the AW track. Well found at $2.20  :dry:

Race 7 # 10 Soulmate - good trial, mile suits, betting $5.50. #4 Leap Of Faith for JM the saver around $2

Race 8 # 3 Drops of God is a promising horse, fitter for 2 trials and should win this on his way to better races, again well found around $1.80  :dry:

Race 10 # 2 The Rock has the advantage of 1 run back where his main 2 opponents are first up, finished off well 1st up, now steps to the preferred mile & @ $6.5 is worth a bet. Obvious danger the progressive CP Brave $2 who's trialed well & the Purton mount Super Football maybe better 1800+ and could get caught wide but you get $11 because of it.

Online fours

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« 2021-Sep-19, 04:03 PM Reply #1107 »
Hmmmm,

Teetan still providing the bickies.

Fours

Online Gintara

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« 2021-Sep-19, 08:33 PM Reply #1108 »
 :what: He didn't ride a winner Fours.

Online fours

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« 2021-Sep-19, 08:39 PM Reply #1109 »
Teetan's bickies,

R2 $9,158.90 first four

R3 $1,913.60 first four

R4 $3,308.90 first four

R5 $922.60 first four

R6 $8,858.70 first four

R7 rare miss

R8 rare miss

R9 rare miss but was on Shinn's mount anyway

R10 $697.30 first four.

Pretty god damn impressive if you ask me - Winners virtually every race.

Fours
ps there is a reason I gave up win betting long ago.

Online wily ole dog

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« 2021-Sep-19, 09:32 PM Reply #1110 »
4s I support your F4 approach and hav had success with it but itís not as simple as claiming success on those raw numbers
Roving Keetan in 14 horse fields would cost $100 per race for a low 1.14% return

I donít see any dividends that would return a profit

Online fours

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« 2021-Sep-19, 09:35 PM Reply #1111 »
wily,wily wily,

You have to do things well and efficiently.

I have not said this is easy.

I have never ever recomended boxing or field bets.

Fours


Online wily ole dog

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« 2021-Sep-19, 09:37 PM Reply #1112 »
So what strategy would have reaped the F4 on R2?

Online fours

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« 2021-Sep-19, 09:42 PM Reply #1113 »
Wily,

Many would say I have erred in naming Teetan as the heir apparent.

He is currently number 1 after tonight on last 50 place %.

So giving my first four secrets away is out of the question. But just like me it is something that anyone can put the work into.

Fours

Online wily ole dog

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« 2021-Sep-19, 09:50 PM Reply #1114 »
As I said, I support your approach but there is zero way that R2 could produce a win

Online fours

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« 2021-Sep-19, 09:52 PM Reply #1115 »
Well Wily,

For the time being at least you can't see it.

You are wrong.

I think I have tipped enough >50/1 horses finishing in the quinella spots to suggest I can see what others miss or cant do.

Fours

Online wily ole dog

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« 2021-Sep-19, 09:58 PM Reply #1116 »
I know you find big priced quinella horses but Somehow finding that $200 shot to run 3rd in enough narrow combinations to return a profit on that race was impossible

Offline nemisis

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« 2021-Sep-19, 10:18 PM Reply #1117 »
Give it up fours....you are like a child.

I did spot you on another forum spruiking your prowess.....but can't produce any proof.

I don't see all of these $50 quinella horses.....I saw a Midterm Mel Cup tip ......Strewth

Yesterday there were 2 tips.....Aysar and Probabeel 4th and 5th...no quinella there, somehow you are a winner.

Celebrate a good win, by all means but just be prepared to put up a betting slip if asked.....I've never seen one from you!.

Online fours

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« 2021-Sep-19, 10:51 PM Reply #1118 »
nemisis,

OK I am clueless.

Only I did mention Teetan before they started racing tonight....

Fours
ps Do you really think I only cover the quin spots in a first four?   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:

Online Gintara

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« 2021-Sep-20, 09:54 AM Reply #1119 »
 .... but fours, you start off by claiming Teetan was matching JM for strike rate (small sample)

Then you come on spruiking he's producing.  :chin:

Yet the measure of a strike rate is winners and here he was not riding a winner  :shrug: after yesterday and granted still early in the season but he sits 3rd, exactly where he finished last year with the two usual suspects, including the one you claim to be slipping both out in front. At the moment it's situation normal.

If you came on and posted you were going to play around Teetan yesterday with 3rds and 4ths I might understand but all in all nothing you claim makes a great deal of sense after the fact.


Online fours

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« 2021-Sep-20, 10:41 AM Reply #1120 »
Gintara,

I am Fours - and not Wins and have said probably 50 times I do first fours as my main bet type.

How many times before hand is enough?

I use Racing and Sports data and their last 50 runs data updated daily - teetan is on top and if you are going to quote me quote me accurately please - I said equal with Purton. Moriera is starting to slip away. Teetan is the reason.

I dont win bet as I prefer to collect rather than whinge about coming second and rarely place bet as I prefer to collect rather than whinge about coming 4th.

Each to their own.

Variance is my friend rather than my problem.

Fours
ps While most do indeed judge premierships by wins is that the best way to judge for a punter?  I dont think so and my returns support that place % is the better way for a punter. My concern is my returns - and not jockey premierships, jockey $$ earned for themselves, and how others judge things. In general ''others'' lose so why copy them?
« Last Edit: 2021-Sep-20, 10:52 AM by fours »

Online Gintara

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« 2021-Sep-20, 05:58 PM Reply #1121 »
Hmmmm,

We might be seeing a changing of the guard in Hong Kong jockey wise.

Morieira continues to slip down the consistancy ladder and Purton is now only equal top strike rate for the last 50 rides....

Teetan has equaled him ... for now.


Obviously if Hayes/Shinn combo prospers together that can go up the ladder some too - early signs look ok for that.

Fours

I did quote you - here it is.

Not sure what anyone else can take from that.  :dry:

Online Gintara

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« 2021-Sep-22, 09:26 PM Reply #1122 »
Back to the Valley tonight & I reckon we can get some  :chin:

Race 2 - #5 Red Majesty ($3.30) has enough natural speed to slide across from a sticky draw and dictate from the front. Has had the one run back and now up to 1650m suits. Saver is the JM ride #2 Savvy Kingman (3.40) who should get a nice run behind the pace.

Race 4 - #2 Party Warrior ($3.10) was desperately unlucky not to win last time out with a gap closing at a crucial moment. Picked up to still run 2nd. #3 Ka Ying Spirit ($3.80) for Purton trialed well and is the obvious danger.

Race 5 - #1 Trader we were on first up off a nice trial where nothing went right sitting 3 and 4 deep. Chance that may happen again but tonight he drops in grade to C4 yet you can get $15, impossible to let him go around at that price and not have something on.

Race 6 - # 6 Harmony N Blessed will go forward, fitter for 3 good trials and gets Purton ($3.1) Saver the #2 Hong Kong Bet $4.4 gets the blinkers on and comes through the same trial as the top pick. I'm keen to take on the fav #3 Harmony Fire, no doubt promising but didn't like the trial at all.

Best Party Warrior

All prices from B365. Good luck to those having a play.



Online wily ole dog

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« 2021-Sep-22, 09:55 PM Reply #1123 »
Party Warrior my best as well
Management supreme in the 5th close to it
Didnít mind the trial Harmony Fire. Pushed out late but given the  opposition and time I thought it was ok
Trancedant in the last with a good jockey change and draw.
« Last Edit: 2021-Sep-22, 10:18 PM by wily ole dog »

Online fours

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« 2021-Sep-22, 10:20 PM Reply #1124 »
What a great ride,

Shinn still really looking after his mounts momentum.

The ride on Super Kin from Barrier 12 as good as you could hope for - waited until there was somewhere to speed up into along the fence.

Fours


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