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New Zealand Racing - International Racing - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: New Zealand Racing  (Read 27597 times)

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Steve M

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O.P. « 2010-Dec-05, 08:14 PM »


NZ racing deserves it's own post I think for stories and racing info.

Steve M

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« 2010-Dec-05, 08:15 PM Reply #1 »
Great performance from We Can Say It Now on Sat - she blew them away.

Of course there might be some question mark over the strength of the older brigade but she's heading the right way   emthup

Offline ledgerr77

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« 2011-Jan-22, 02:14 PM Reply #2 »

  Trentham...million dollar sprint....like Monton, KatieLee and Vonousti...boxed up exacta. quinny etc  :thumbsup:

Steve M

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« 2011-Jan-22, 10:11 PM Reply #3 »
Top win from Mufhasa -down outside rail in the better ground - now his second win in race after 2009. First Command ran a terrific race.

Not sure what happened to Swift Alliance - I assume he dwelt at the start - but I'd need to see replay - thought he was entitled to be fave but was a bit short.

Offline monologue

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« 2011-Jan-23, 09:18 AM Reply #4 »
What about those times they put up...incredible  :lol:

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2011-Jan-23, 10:06 AM Reply #5 »
And that crowd noise accompanying the call, great. Not.

Offline Peterf

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« 2011-Jan-23, 06:12 PM Reply #6 »
The Telegraph is always run in a smart time. Got $8.50 about First Command - so near yet so far....... :tears:

Steve M

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« 2011-Feb-10, 07:17 AM Reply #7 »
G1 Waikato Draught Sprint coming up - one of the great NZ races.

1   Wall Street (NZ)   2   59.0      J R Lynds
2   Mufhasa (NZ)   9   59.0      S J McKee
3   Bulginbaah (NZ)   11   59.0      Ms C Wilson
4   Coup Align (NZ)   1   59.0      M R Pitman
5   Richard Beymer (NZ)   4   59.0      R A Otto
6   Vonusti (NZ)   10   59.0      T J Carter
7   Jacowils (NZ)   3   59.0      Ms K Stead
8   Keep The Peace (NZ)   5   57.0      S F Ritchie
9   Katie Lee   6   57.0      G A Rogerson
10   Bella Renza (NZ)   7   57.0      G A Rogerson
11   We Can Say It Now   8   53.5      M P Baker

Offline Peterf

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« 2011-Feb-18, 10:59 AM Reply #8 »
Avondale Cup on Saturday, can't see a better opportunity for Castletown lookalike Six OÇlock News to finally win another race after brave second in Wellington Cup.   :no1:

Steve M

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« 2011-Feb-18, 09:13 PM Reply #9 »
Thoughts Peterf?

We Can Say It Now last start? It probably doesn't read that back into a 3yo race but seems like the stable expected lot better - like punters.

Jimmy Choux - interesting move to have the month break. Does he get the Derby trip? What's his right sort of race in Aust?

King's Rose - competitive in AJC Oaks?

Offline Peterf

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« 2011-Feb-20, 08:23 AM Reply #10 »
Hi Steve.

Must admit I'm getting a bit out of touch with Kiwi racing since we moved here, the Aussie version is so much better.

Jimmy Choux will have to stay to win the Derby. When it was raced in December a non stayer could win the race on sheer class, but by March the staying 3-y-os are that much more mature. Since the race was shifted it has been stayers winning it.

So you have a horse with a fibrillation problem, from a little known stable, who will run in none of the traditional Derby leadups and is suspect at the distance. I'll be looking elsewhere.

Didn't see We Can Say It Now's last run so can't comment.  King's Rose strikes me as an ideal Sydney type.

Steve M

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« 2011-Feb-26, 06:03 PM Reply #11 »
Been meaning to say thanks for the comments Peter  emthup

I was happy to see Keep The Peace win today -she confirmed to me she's come back in good form - they have some top races picked out - so they'll need to be at her career best but I suspect she is.

Offline Tauto

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« 2011-Mar-01, 01:25 AM Reply #12 »
As someone who has personally invested on Wall Street in Australian Cup, what did posters
make of his run on Saturday.
Sounded like no disgrace to run second (im hoping like hell ?!?)

Did one if its legs drop off post race, as its now blown out to $35 win and $9 place on Supertab ??
That $9 for the place looks super attractive to me if plans are all still au go go.

Any thoughts ?

Steve M

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« 2011-Mar-01, 06:33 AM Reply #13 »
Nothing wrong with his run Tauto - he was prob expected to win but he made all the running the mare ran upto him earlyish in the straight but he made her fight for the win - fought on well.

If anything the price might be suggesting he's not heading there - I'm not sure - reports after Sat said he's coming to Australia for either the Cup or Doncaster.

Offline Tauto

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« 2011-Mar-01, 11:13 PM Reply #14 »
Thanks for that Steve, im sure i read Australian Cup was his initial target, he was $26
earlier before the weekend, hadnt heard of the Doncaster "interest".

Still reckon Flemington suits better, just maybe the 2000 would be better with the right
run, given he ran midfield in Doncaster last year and seems another hot field looming.

Guess all one can do is watch this space.

Offline AndrewH

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« 2011-Mar-04, 10:44 PM Reply #15 »
New Zealand Derby Preview: Can High Chaparral dominate again?

Victory in the New Zealand Derby has either been a blessing or a curse for recent winners.

For the likes of C’est La Guerre and Xcellent, victory in New Zealand’s richest race led to a placing in Australia’s greatest race, the Melbourne Cup.

For Military Move, it signalled a New Zealand swansong as he was then shipped to Hong Kong.

Some, like Redoute’s Dancer, never raced again.

However, one thing is almost guaranteed – at least one of these horses will be seen in Sydney for the AJC Derby.

Which will it be?

Just Horse Racing writer Andrew Hawkins has analysed the field and determined where the value lies:

1. Jimmy Choux – New Zealand’s dominant 3yo colt and the firm favourite here. He’s done mostly everything right this season – apart from one hiccup in the G1 Levin Classic (1600m) when he suffered heart arrythmia. His pedigree suggests he’d be best at 1600m, but considering the ease of his win in the Waikato Guineas over 2000m, he should get the 2400m on class alone. The one they all have to beat.

2. He’s Remarkable - has long been touted as potentially the best stayer in the 3yo crop. His last run was disappointing though. If he’s right on the day, he’s the one to beat. But that’s a pretty big if. Furthermore, doesn’t like it wet, and it is bucketing down in Auckland. Will have to go back to near last from the gate, which could be pretty difficult. At $9 at the moment. Chance on his best form, but has a lot of negatives against him.

3. Icepin – underrated galloper who has done pretty incredibly to run 2nd in the Karaka Million (1200m) as a 2yo and to then line up as one of the favoured runners for the NZ Derby over twice the distance. Sensational, tough win in the Avondale Guineas (2100m). Doesn’t like it too wet though, so will be hoping the rain stops. Currently $13.

4. Hidden Asset – looked a potential star in the making after his win in the Championship Stakes (2100m) in January, but has disappointed in two subsequent runs. Yet to be tested on anything worse than good, but pedigree says he should handle a wet track. Will definitely run 2400m on pedigree (High Chaparral out of a Zabeel mare). Trainer Shaun Ritchie won Derby last year with Military Move. Big value at the $26.

5. On The Level – versatile galloper who has improved as the trips have increased. Ran 4th in the Waikato Guineas (2000m) when he tried to lead all the way, then charged home for 2nd in the Avondale Guineas (2100m) when he was third last approaching the home turn. His pedigree is a slight concern when it comes to the distance, but he’s in the hands of arguably New Zealand’s best trainers of stayers so he can’t be dismissed. Currently $17. One for the place.

6. Yourein – John Sargent-trained horse who likes to race handy to the speed. Has been out of form recently and is struggling to recapture his form of a couple of months ago. Might appreciate a wet track, but he’s one of the outsiders. Prepared to risk.

7. Encosta Diablo – consistent galloper who may just lack a little bit of the class of this field. He’s shown a liking for wet tracks however, and he should run the distance. Trainer Jason Bridgman seemed to indicate that this was his second string runner, with Icepin favoured, but if one was to surprise it could be this horse. Currently $17.

8. Jetset Lad – was doing quite well this season, with some nice runs including a very nice 2nd to Jimmy Choux in the Wellington Stakes (1600m). However, last start, I think he demonstrated that he would find the 2400m a bit too far. Only reason I can’t dismiss him is that he has thrived on wet tracks in the past. However, it would be a surprise if he stayed the 2400m.

9. Nippin – Pins colt who has run a place at every start except for his debut. It’s a big step up in class here – it looks a bridge too far. But the thing about these consistent types is that they will pull out a run that surprises you, and they will meet every test they are thrown. That said, I still can’t have him.

10. Yin Yang Master – this horse actually has some of the best form up to 2000m in the field. However, when stepped up to 2100m, he just held his place. Don’t think he’ll appreciate the step up in distance, and the pedigree seems to suggest that too. Happy to risk.

11. O’Reilly’s Prize – here’s the 3yo with a sense of timing. He’s been brought through the grades slowly by his trainer, seemingly peaking at the right time. His run in the Avondale Guineas was a cracker, nothing went right and yet he still had the tenacity to finish 5th. That run will have him battle hardened for a tough run in the Derby. The query is the wet track, but his breeding suggests he should handle it fine. Go close.

12. Historian – this horse has surprisingly done alright over 2000m, with good runs in the Waikato and Avondale Guineas. It is just the breeding which makes me think he can’t run 2400m. Choisir out of a Marauding mare? Not for a tough 2400m run, thank you very much.

13. Raffles Knight – don’t know much about this horse, he’s only had the five starts and I don’t think he’s run a poor race yet. His run in the Avondale Guineas wasn’t bad, and looking at his breeding, he should run the trip. Hard to back with any confidence though.

14. Sierra Nevada – this High Chaparral has shown a lot of promise in his five starts. He did well stepping up from restricted class to run third in the Avondale Guineas behind Icepin. He’s crying out for 2400m, and he’ll handle the wet track. Jim Byrne flew over for the ride two weeks ago, and he retains the ride here. Could be a smokey.

15. Wisecrack – it’s been a rushjob to get him to the Derby – he’s won two of his three starts. Big jump up in class, but he looks talented – however, the problem is race experience. He was very wayward in his last start win. Being by High Chaparral, he’ll appreciate the 2400m and most likely the wet track. It’s just whether he is mentally there yet.

16. Between The Beats – he’s been outclassed behind many of these horses before, and while he is bred to stay the trip and has trainer of the moment Jeff Lynds behind him, I can’t see him figuring in the finish.

17. Banchee – the lone filly of the field, she’s a class act. Has form around all of NZ’s best 3yos. On the surface she was disappointing in the Avondale Guineas, but upon reflection she had nowhere to go and was actually rather unlucky. The trip is a bit of a query, but the Velas are hoping to bring her to Sydney so they’d be hoping for a good run here.

SUMMARY

The wet track throws a bit of a spanner in the works here. Jimmy Choux looks the one to beat, no doubt. And really, he should win. However, I love the odds about Hidden Asset. I think he has a lot of things in his favour here. So I’ll put Hidden Asset on top purely because of the value. Jimmy Choux in for second. For third, I think I’ll put in He’s Remarkable. If he’s anywhere near right, he’ll go very close. For 4th, I’ll go for O’Reilly’s Prize just ahead of Sierra Nevada. Other chances are Icepin, On The Level, Wisecrack and Banchee. Open race.

NUMBERS

4. Hidden Asset
1. Jimmy Choux
2. He’s Remarkable
11. O’Reilly’s Prize

Written by Andrew Hawkins

Offline Peterf

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« 2011-Mar-06, 09:51 AM Reply #16 »
I was dead wrong about Jimmy Choux. He was never comfortable in the going but still won. I went for odds and backed Historian, so did okay.

Kings Rose flopped at Hastings but maybe didn't like the going, it was raining cats and dogs by the time the Lowland came around.

We Can Say It Now apparently took a long time to recover from yesterday's race, maybe a problem there somewhere.

Offline Peterf

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« 2011-Mar-06, 02:32 PM Reply #17 »
Auckland Cup field looks pretty ordinary. I'll probably be suckered into Six O'Clock News, but Mr Tipsy looks a great bet. Failed at Hobart, but then ran a mighty race at the Valley.

Offline Peterf

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« 2011-Mar-07, 09:32 AM Reply #18 »
We Can Say It Now retired - after one bad run!  WTF?    :what:

Offline AndrewH

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« 2011-Mar-07, 09:47 AM Reply #19 »
Yeah...rather weird!!!

Here's my Auckland Cup preview.

Auckland Cup preview: Passchendaele out to emulate history
Oh, how times have changed with the Auckland Cup!!!

Now New Zealand’s only Group 1 race at 3200m, the winner and placegetters used to be considered New Zealand’s best chances to win Australasia’s greatest race, the Melbourne Cup.

This is despite the fact that only one horse has done the double – Jezabeel in 1998.

However, the last three Auckland Cup winners – Prize Lady, Spin Around and Zavite – have lined up in the Melbourne Cup in the same year only to run 17th, 20th and 22nd respectively.

In the past, Auckland Cup winners like Senator, Castletown and Beau Vite ran good races in the Melbourne Cup without winning.

This edition of the Auckland Cup, while perhaps not the strongest running of the race, features some classy types who may be Melbourne Cup-bound come November.

So who does Just Horse Racing writer Andrew Hawkins believe may be a chance in November – after winning here first, of course?

Read on to read Andrew’s Auckland Cup preview:

1. Capecover – probably the most proven at 3200m in the field. Has had 6 starts at 3200m for a win in the Adelaide Cup, 4ths in the Sandown Cup, Sydney Cup and New Zealand Cup, a 9th in the 2009 Auckland Cup and 17th to Shocking in the Melbourne Cup (where he was simply outclassed). Has had three lead up runs for this in a preparation that seems slightly rushed. At his best, he can win this. But he’ll need to be at his best with a 57kg topweight. Place chance appears best.

2. Tinseltown – his best is probably behind him and every time he’s been tried at 3200m, he’s seemed to struggle with the last 300m or so. Won the Counties Cup (2100m) very nicely four starts back but it has been downhill from there – so much so that it looks like his best distance is around 2200m. Although once a huge fan, I can’t have him here. And the barrier just makes it harder. Passing.

3. Mr Tipsy – one time Sydney Cup placegetter who is in pretty poor form. Was beaten narrowly by Pergola last start in the Moonee Valley Night Cup, but I reckon Pergola wouldn’t get warm here. It was an okay run from Mr Tipsy, but I doubt it was good enough for here. Could perhaps, with luck, find his way into the placings. But from a very wide barrier, luck probably won’t find him. Not for me.

4. Six O’Clock News – this son of Zabeel was once in the top few in betting for the Melbourne Cup, but after a number of poor runs he didn’t make the field. His run in the Wellington Cup was reminiscent of the Six O’Clock News of old, but he was slightly disappointing in the Avondale Cup. It depends which Six O’Clock News turns up – as with many of the horses near the top of the weights, on his best he can win it. Probably a better chance than the three above him, but he also has a wide gate. Place.

5. Titch – so we may be used to seeing European horses like Vintage Crop and Purple Moon turn their jumping careers into successful staying careers on the flat. But in New Zealand? Rarely does it happen. But this horse has been racing in fantastic heart. He won the Houlahan Hurdle at Sandown in August, then returned in October with a win over 1600m at Wanganui. Incredibly he almost won the G3 New Zealand Cup (3200m), only just defeated by Auckland Cup second favourite Showcause. Last start, he was beaten by a nose over 2200m by Solid Billing, who meets him 3.5kg better at the weights. No stamina queries with him, don’t know if he’s classy enough but there’s no doubt he’s one of the more intriguing horses in the race. Place.

6. Solid Billing – a real interesting runner. Was completely out of form until last start, when he beat Titch by a nose. He meets him 3.5kg better at the weights. Has won his only start at 3200m, by 3L in last year’s Listed Queensland Cup (although second was Dave The Dude, who is struggling in weak Melbourne staying races). Also won Randwick’s Summer Cup in 2009. On his day, he goes okay – probably not as classy as some in the field, but he’s a definite stayer. Could be one at odds.

7. Showcause – has probably been the most improved horse in New Zealand since October, when he was struggling in restricted races. Was a surprise winner of the G3 New Zealand Cup (3200m), then has mixed his form since – highlighted by two wins here over 2400m at Ellerslie in the G2 City of Auckland Cup and the G2 Avondale Cup. He ran pretty poorly when 9th in the G2 Wellington Cup. Seems to like Ellerslie. Well bred, and if he can stay 3200m, he’ll be right in the mix. Barrier does make it a bit difficult though. Chance nevertheless.

8. Passchendaele – there was much devastation in New Zealand when this mare suffered a hairline fracture of her cannon bone on the eve of this race last year. She was Auckland Cup favourite after fantastic lead up runs, but instead was sent for a long spell – so much so, that one writer declared that New Zealand had lost their best chance to win the 2010 Melbourne Cup (in March!!!!). This year, she’s back – and arguably coming off a better run than last year. She was 3rd at weight for age to Red Ruler and Booming last start. If she runs 3200m, which she is bred to do, she should win. She is favourite for a reason. And perhaps, this year, she’ll finally get a chance to go for Melbourne Cup glory. Top chance.

9. Cassini – this mare was in very nice form and most likely would have started rather high in the markets before her last start failure in weak company. Hard to gauge where she’s at. The second from outside barrier makes it rather difficult too. Not for me.

10. Castle Heights – one time Grafton Cup winner who has a habit of mixing his form. Last run actually wasn’t too bad. Yet to run at 3200m but his trainer Donna Logan has had success with 3200m types before and he should get the distance on breeding. Can’t back him with any confidence whatsoever, but could run a place at big odds.

11. Fazza – 8yo who has only started to hit his straps in the last year. Was one of the outsiders in last year’s Auckland Cup when he ran 9th. Is in better form this time in, but still should deservedly be one of the outsiders. Not for me.

12. Roi d’Jeu – equal second favourite with Showcause. He started favourite in the New Zealand Cup, finishing a half length behind Showcause. He was a dominant winner in restricted company last Saturday with 59kg. Personally, I don’t think his form is outstanding, although the 8kg drop in weight should help. Still think he is under the odds and would be lucky to win. Maybe a place.

13. Can’t Keeper Down – ran 2nd to Jungle Rocket in the 2009 NZ Oaks (Daffodil was 4th). Was heavily backed for the Queensland Oaks, but failed to do anything behind Purple. After that, she seemed to take a long time to recover her form. However, in her last three runs, she has shown glimpses of her old form. The main query is 3200m, and it is a big concern. However, she has been consistent as of late, and therefore must be thrown into all multiples.

14. Innocent Lady – this is the mare on the up. Trained by Graeme Sanders, who trained Prize Lady to win the 2007/2008 Auckland Cups, she has only had 16 starts for 4 wins and 7 seconds. She ran a game race in the Avondale Cup, although I have to admit that it didn’t look like the run of a horse looking for 3200m. Furthermore Viking Ruler is yet to produce a winner over 3200m. However, she has next to no weight, she has some of the best (and most consistent) form in the field and must be considered.

15. Trilogy – this mare had only had one start this time last year, but since April she has had another 23 starts! She’s run some very nice races at her last two starts in the Dunedin Cup and the Avondale Cup. She produced a very nice Auckland Cup trial in the Avondale Cup. The outside gate is a real concern though, she will have to go back towards the tail of the field and I don’t know if she has the turn of foot to make up the ground she’ll lose. Perhaps a place.

16. Back in Black – has run okay races recently without being outstanding. Yet to race beyond 2400m. Will get the sweet run from the draw, but probably doesn’t have the class or the stamina to win this. Happy to risk.

17. Tin Goose – last year’s third placegetter (ran 3rd at 100-1!), he’s in worse form this time around. Might be looking for the 3200m again, so can’t rule out entirely – especially considering the fact that Zavite almost won The BMW in that same campaign while Booming is a subsequent dual G1 winner. Nevertheless, he’s only a rough place chance.

18. Zabene – ran a mighty race in the New Zealand Cup behind Showcause, but hasn’t done much since. Seems to dislike wet tracks, and was beaten a long way in last year’s Auckland Cup. I like the McKees as trainers, but this bloke is no Sunline. Plenty against him, and an outsider for a reason. Pass.

19. He’s Under The Gun (1st emergency) – up and coming stayer who mixes his form. Pretty good run in the Wellington Cup before an average run in the Avondale Cup. Still, as a son of Zabeel, he may want 3200m. If he gets a run, he’s one to include for the place.

20. Payback (2nd emergency) – outclassed. No.

21. Mr Zatopek (3rd emergency) – why waste my time? No.

SUMMARY – Not sure this is one of the strongest Auckland Cups, although I think there are some nice horses in the race. Actually, most of the nice horses are mares. It’s been 13 years since an Auckland Cup winner went on to win the Melbourne Cup – that was Jezabeel in 1998 (and she was actually one of the outsiders in her Auckland Cup). So it is may be suitable that a mare wins and goes on to tackle the Melbourne Cup. There’s only one horse in the race that I believe is capable of this, and that’s the favourite Passchendaele. So I’m going to stick with her. I’m a big fan of her, and I think she has plenty of staying ability. I just hope she can stay 3200m. And if she does win, I hope she stays sound for a tilt at the Melbourne Cup. For second, I have to throw the gutsy Showcause in. He loves Ellerslie and I think he has plenty of class. He just might run into a good one here. The up and coming mare Innocent Lady may not look like a 3200m form but she’s ultra consistent and that’s what you want to see from a horse. She’s a definite chance of running a place. For 4th, I’m going to go with Can’t Keeper Down. Don’t think she’ll run a strong 3200m but her runs in recent times have been nice. Next best are Solid Billing, Six O’Clock News and Capecover.

NUMBERS

8. Passchendaele
7. Showcause
14. Innocent Lady
13. Can’t Keeper Down

Written by Andrew Hawkins


Offline Peterf

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« 2011-Mar-07, 11:22 AM Reply #20 »
Hmm, Andrew didn't exactly set the world on fire with his Derby tips, so am not fazed that he doesn't rate Mr Tipsy. The Valley didn't suit him, but the run should set him off nicely.

I have never been able to fathom why this race was shifted from a public holiday to a late afternoon in the middle of a working week. One of the daftest decisions I can recall.

Offline Peterf

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« 2011-Mar-07, 11:25 AM Reply #21 »
Trainer sez Jimmy Choux will not race over 2400m again, but will be restricted to 1600-2000m races.

Wall Street is being set for the Doncaster.

Lower grade horse to watch in NZ is Saint Pat. Owned by an acquaintance, Pat Baker, of El Cheapo Cars. Sounds a bit didgy, but he's a top bloke and the horse is flying.

Offline Peterf

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« 2011-Mar-08, 09:41 PM Reply #22 »
Six OÇlock News scratched from Auckland Cup. Andrew's top pick, Passchendaele also out.

Steve M

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« 2011-Mar-08, 09:59 PM Reply #23 »
Peterf does anyone publish prices for feature races apart from NZ Tab?

Offline Peterf

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« 2011-Mar-09, 08:39 AM Reply #24 »
No, not in NZ.


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