Good old systems - Blogs - Racehorse TALK harm-plan harm-plan

Racehorse TALK



Good old systems - Blogs - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Good old systems  (Read 4067 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline keith77

  • Maiden
  • User 1245
  • Posts: 4
O.P. « 2010-Dec-28, 07:54 AM »

     Hi Boys,
                Just wondering if anyone had any reliable old gallop systems that they wouldnt mind passing on               
                  Cheers   :biggrin:        

Offline gratlog

  • Group 1
  • User 5
  • Posts: 12700
« 2010-Dec-28, 08:10 AM Reply #1 »
    Keith, i have been trying for 55 years to find this perfect system and up to number 6,394,give or take a few hundred.  :biggrin:

   So far none have worked. 

   Maybe that isn't quite right.  Maybe it is because I have attention span of a gnat and don't give them enough time.  :biggrin:

Offline dubbledee

  • VIP Club
  • Group 1
  • User 285
  • Posts: 34011
« 2010-Dec-28, 08:17 AM Reply #2 »
keith

Two points from me:

I know lots of people who have tried systems.  They fall into two groups:  They're still working, or they're not punting.

There are "girls" on this forum - and ones you wouldn't wanna end up in a brawl with, either.  :lol:

I suggest ya concentrate on one state, do ya form, bet small, and have fun.

Good luck.

Offline keith77

  • Maiden
  • User 1245
  • Posts: 4
« 2010-Dec-28, 08:24 AM Reply #3 »

              Thanks for the advice Fellers, will stick to form.
           
                      Cheers  ;)

Online JWesleyHarding

  • Group 1
  • User 231
  • Posts: 17238
« 2010-Dec-28, 08:26 AM Reply #4 »
What about No 8 Race 8?

I thought that was a tried and trusted system. :shy:

Offline Rad

  • Group3
  • User 168
  • Posts: 769
« 2010-Dec-28, 08:46 AM Reply #5 »
What about No 8 Race 8?

I thought that was a tried and trusted system. :shy:

Until yesterday, it was R7, #7 from barrier 7!!  :shy: :tears:

Offline winner

  • Group 1
  • User 415
  • Posts: 10943
« 2010-Dec-28, 09:22 AM Reply #6 »
     Hi Boys,
                Just wondering if anyone had any reliable old gallop systems that they wouldnt mind passing on               
                  Cheers    :biggrin:         



Don't listen to them Keith the elusive system is out there....


Offline keith77

  • Maiden
  • User 1245
  • Posts: 4
« 2010-Dec-28, 09:38 AM Reply #7 »

                         There has to be a system that returns a modest profit  :chin:
               
                         

Offline gratlog

  • Group 1
  • User 5
  • Posts: 12700
« 2010-Dec-28, 09:49 AM Reply #8 »
1st step is not to aim too high. 

I'm sure we would be happy with 1-10% profit on our investment every time we punted. :yes:

One thing I do know that works is a staking plan.

With me it is $20-$30 per week put aside for my punting. That's if I win lose or draw.

That's total for the year will be no more than $1560.

If we cannot win with that, we should look for another hobby. :yes:

Offline dubbledee

  • VIP Club
  • Group 1
  • User 285
  • Posts: 34011
« 2010-Dec-28, 10:29 AM Reply #9 »
                         There has to be a system that returns a modest profit  :chin:            
Why has there?

Offline gratlog

  • Group 1
  • User 5
  • Posts: 12700
« 2010-Dec-28, 10:36 AM Reply #10 »
Here's one I'll try today.  Won't be the first time that I have made a fool of myself.  :biggrin:

1-Stop betting as soon as you make a profit of say 10% at least.  That is up to you as to what % you reckon is a fair thing.

2- use fixed odds . Win or place that is up to you.

3-Most importantly is to stop after two losing bets.  Don't ever chase money you have lost.

4--Like all systems it still comes down to what you pick. Today I went to the Herald Sun site and took four shorties .Paper prices :sweat:

Todays
Sandown
1/5
2/1
5/10

Stoney Creek

3/1


Therefore we will see what fixed odds that they put up for M 1/5.

I'm aiming for 10% profit or more but will only bet $1 = 1 Unit.

Offline Rad

  • Group3
  • User 168
  • Posts: 769
« 2010-Dec-28, 10:37 AM Reply #11 »
There are many ways to be a long term winner .. but all of them involve lots and lots of hard work, experience and discipline. No quick fixes around as far as I'm concerned.

Offline gratlog

  • Group 1
  • User 5
  • Posts: 12700
« 2010-Dec-28, 10:47 AM Reply #12 »
Yes it all comes down to what sort of punter you are.   If serious, hard work is involved .

When it is just entertainment , the least amount of work possable is the way to go.

Another thing that works for me--Money won at the punt is not a win until spent elsewhere.

Offline dubbledee

  • VIP Club
  • Group 1
  • User 285
  • Posts: 34011
« 2010-Dec-28, 10:50 AM Reply #13 »
There are many ways to be a long term winner .. but all of them involve lots and lots of hard work, experience and discipline. No quick fixes around as far as I'm concerned.
But they're not systems, Rad, are they?

You're talking about form analysis, I assume.

I interpret "system" to mean a process of arriving at a bet without looking at a horse's form relative to that of others in the field.

Offline Rad

  • Group3
  • User 168
  • Posts: 769
« 2010-Dec-28, 10:52 AM Reply #14 »
But they're not systems, Rad, are they?

You're talking about form analysis, I assume.

I interpret "system" to mean a process of arriving at a bet without looking at a horse's form relative to that of others in the field.


Correct DD ... people can be systematic and win ... but not thru using a simple selection method, as far as I see it.

Offline Authorized

  • Group 1
  • User 18
  • Posts: 30555
« 2010-Dec-28, 11:14 AM Reply #15 »
Isn't that the way Bubbasmith survives on the punt ?

Some sort of system not relying on form ?
But they're not systems, Rad, are they?

You're talking about form analysis, I assume.

I interpret "system" to mean a process of arriving at a bet without looking at a horse's form relative to that of others in the field.


Offline dubbledee

  • VIP Club
  • Group 1
  • User 285
  • Posts: 34011
« 2010-Dec-28, 11:21 AM Reply #16 »
No, Bubba uses "paper prices" as a basis for staking his units in trebles.

He works on the theory that the "average" punter's treble preferences are influenced by "paper prices".

Offline Rad

  • Group3
  • User 168
  • Posts: 769
« 2010-Dec-28, 11:22 AM Reply #17 »
Lots win by feeding data into their computer and, having developed selection criteria, having their assessments mechanically produced. I don't see that as a system. I see that as lots of hard work developing filters, prioritising factors, etc., etc.. It is an individual's formula for success as developed that works.

Offline Thesmartman

  • Group 2
  • User 953
  • Posts: 2343
« 2010-Dec-28, 11:34 AM Reply #18 »
Keith,

If you want systems for punting, go buy the magazine Practical Punting Monthly.  It is full of systems of which you speak and seek.

However, reality is champion, I think they are all crap.  What you should be doing is establishing yourself some punting rules by the sound of it.  Seeing as though it is Xmas, I shall share.

Here is 3 rules you may wish to include:-

1) Learn to price a horse yourself - I dont conspire to NEVER taking odds on.
2) Dont back horses first up.
3) Never back a horse dropping back more than 200m in distance within 21 days.


Offline Wenona

  • VIP Club
  • Group 1
  • User 175
  • Posts: 6980
« 2010-Dec-28, 11:47 AM Reply #19 »
I always loved trying to develop systems. Never developed one that won over an extended period (yet) but I still think the process has some worth in developing a punters knowledge base.

I think it's a good way to analyse and get a better understanding of various form factors and what importance they have in the overall picture. Not only in their significance in affecting a horses winning chances but also to what extent the public over bet various factors.

What a system should try to do is develop a set of fixed criteria that is underplayed by the general market. As racing markets are generally very efficient it's a very difficult thing to do.

Any system that seems to be strike rate driven is doomed from the start I think. The selections will generally be well in the market and accurately assessed. You may get profits for a while but your results will quickly tend towards losses that represent the overall loss of those type of runners in the long term.

Other systems you see are driven by back fitting a set of anomalous results. I'm quite confidant I could sit down and develop a system that had 300 selections over the last three years and showed a profit of more than 20% on turnover. It would probably be worthless. There's virtually an infinite set of criteria you can come up with and there will always be a CHANGING proportion of those that will be showing a profit over a set preceding period of time.

If you are to develop a winning methodology I think the first thing you need to do is give up any pretense to a healthy strike rate. You would  in my view be looking for runners at longer prices and trying to find a factor/s that may indicate that a proportion of the runners with that factor/s in that longer price group are under valued by the betting public.

So basically I think you need to be finding $20 winners that are really $14 shots. Or more realistically a 100 $20 shots where 75 are really $25 shots (efficiently priced) 16 are $12 shots and 9 are really $7 shots.

When looking at what factors to use, the more a factor is hidden the more chance it has of being missed by the public and returning a profit. So having factors based on basic information provided in the daily form guides is probably a waste of time.

I've been working on a mechanical system over the last few months based on these ideas. The results etc are in my Wenona's $1000 challenge thread.

I've tried to isolate an area I think the general public over play runners and then look at the runners that don't fall into this category. My criteria then looks at runners in that group. The criteria are ratings based so not generally available and they also do compare runners with each other within a race which isn't something a lot of systems do. Despite that the rules are mechanical an anyone with access to the rules and the basic ratings information will get the same selections.

I'll probably crash and burn again, but hopefully I'll lean something that will improve my understanding and help me make a quid further down the track.



Offline Wyatt Earp

  • Listed
  • User 325
  • Posts: 369
« 2010-Dec-28, 12:30 PM Reply #20 »
There's no system that covers all scenarios or any one scenario for that matter, that's profitable. However there are methods of analysis that can be used to reduce a field of horses down to limited number of chances and in some cases just one chance. Whether you do it using a computer or by pen and ink manually studying the form, everybody has methods. After that good or bad luck takes over and any profitability is determined by the average price attained of your winners.

Offline gratlog

  • Group 1
  • User 5
  • Posts: 12700
« 2010-Dec-28, 12:36 PM Reply #21 »
Here's one I'll try today.  Won't be the first time that I have made a fool of myself.   

1-Stop betting as soon as you make a profit of say 10% at least.  That is up to you as to what % you reckon is a fair thing.

2- use fixed odds . Win or place that is up to you.

3-Most importantly is to stop after two losing bets.  Don't ever chase money you have lost.

4--Like all systems it still comes down to what you pick. Today I went to the Herald Sun site and took four shorties .Paper prices

Todays
Sandown
1/5
2/1
5/10

Stoney Creek

3/1


Therefore we will see what fixed odds that they put up for M 1/5.

I'm aiming for 10% profit or more but will only bet $1 = 1 Uni


Here's one I'll try today.  Won't be the first time that I have made a fool of myself.   

1-Stop betting as soon as you make a profit of say 10% at least.  That is up to you as to what % you reckon is a fair thing.

2- use fixed odds . Win or place that is up to you.

3-Most importantly is to stop after two losing bets.  Don't ever chase money you have lost.

4--Like all systems it still comes down to what you pick. Today I went to the Herald Sun site and took four shorties .Paper prices

Todays
Sandown
1/5
2/1
5/10

Stoney Creek

3/1


Therefore we will see what fixed odds that they put up for M 1/5.

I'm aiming for 10% profit or more but will only bet $1 = 1 Unit.

I'll stop after one bet today as I got my profit.  42%
806983 * Horse Racing:MR01 (HILLSIDE) 2YO FILLIES JOYEUX (Place) $1 @ $1.42 = $1.42 D $1.42

Offline pegasyber

  • Group 2
  • User 909
  • Posts: 1358
« 2011-Jan-01, 09:51 AM Reply #22 »
Moved to Computer Section.
« Last Edit: 2011-Jan-01, 08:04 PM by pegasyber »

Online JWesleyHarding

  • Group 1
  • User 231
  • Posts: 17238
« 2011-Jan-01, 10:02 AM Reply #23 »
  Don't ever chase money you have lost.


In which case I wouldn't have had another bet after Prince Foote was beaten by Comedy King in the Spring Stakes.

Offline winner

  • Group 1
  • User 415
  • Posts: 10943
« 2011-Jan-01, 10:13 AM Reply #24 »
In which case I wouldn't have had another bet after Prince Foote was beaten by Comedy King in the Spring Stakes.



True, we all would have finished long ago....  :biggrin:


I don't want to get in an argument but I have been to the "promised land" and systems which win do exist, but as Wenona correctly noted much more than simple form guides are required.


BACK TO ALL TOPICS
Sitemap