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High chance of running up to best form - Blogs - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: High chance of running up to best form  (Read 7009 times)

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Offline Hareeba

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O.P. « 2015-Aug-06, 11:05 AM »
I'm testing 5 factors that indicate whether a horse is likely to run at or near its best. I'm ignoring factors such as class, weight and barriers cause the main aim is to peel back the form layers to see if simply being 100% fit or near to it is enough to produce winners without additional considerations being used.


Offline Hareeba

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« 2015-Aug-06, 11:09 AM Reply #1 »
Selections and their estimated % chance of running up to best form.

Br7
Cum Dividend 90%
Buakaw 90%

Mr5 Falago 95%
Mr7 Play Master 95%
Mr8 Tansy 77%

Sr5 Darci Magic 84%
Sr6 Lord Leofric 95%

Offline Authorized

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« 2015-Aug-06, 11:11 AM Reply #2 »
James Conway ?

Offline Hareeba

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« 2015-Aug-06, 02:36 PM Reply #3 »
I don't know much about what Jim Conway does.

Offline Skybeau

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« 2015-Aug-06, 06:52 PM Reply #4 »
I don't know much about what Jim Conway does.

Either does WOT

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2015-Aug-06, 07:01 PM Reply #5 »
Either does WOT




All these %'s.

I wonder if they appear 45.67% fit on the telly  :lol:

WOT and idiot

Offline Gintara

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« 2015-Aug-06, 09:01 PM Reply #6 »
How are you estimating a horses fitness Hareeba?

Offline Hareeba

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« 2015-Aug-06, 10:51 PM Reply #7 »
How are you estimating a horses fitness Hareeba?

Based on past trends.

Offline Hareeba

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« 2015-Aug-08, 09:57 PM Reply #8 »
2 places. Break even the place.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2015-Aug-09, 09:20 AM Reply #9 »
0 from 7 :chin: You may need to review those methods

Offline Hareeba

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« 2015-Aug-09, 07:48 PM Reply #10 »
0 from 7 :chin: You may need to review those methods

Break even. 2/6 placed and one of them a good thing beaten. Very good results from such a raw method with no filters. Excellent in fact. 2 or 3 filters produces a 200% profit.

Go back to lawn bowls you silly old fool.
« Last Edit: 2015-Aug-09, 07:59 PM by Hareeba »

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2015-Aug-09, 08:18 PM Reply #11 »
What staking plan did you use to break even with 0/7?

Offline Hareeba

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« 2015-Aug-09, 08:22 PM Reply #12 »
What staking plan did you use to break even with 0/7?

Wasnt 7.

2/6 placed break even
200% profit with filters

Id take that every week.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2015-Aug-09, 08:28 PM Reply #13 »
You gave 7 tips and none won but you claim to break even. Once again, don't hide, what staking plan did you use to achieve such wonderful results?

Offline Hareeba

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« 2015-Aug-09, 08:31 PM Reply #14 »
You gave 7 tips and none won but you claim to break even. Once again, don't hide, what staking plan did you use to achieve such wonderful results?



Scratched horses arent losses you fool. 2/6 places was break even the place. With filters its 200% profit.

Its my topic. Piss off if it doesnt interest you. Obviously you have no life but to follow me around.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2015-Aug-09, 08:34 PM Reply #15 »
It does interest me, that's why I'm asking questions. What are these filters you apply?
Are you only betting for a place?

be thankful, Im showing an interest

Offline Hareeba

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« 2015-Aug-09, 08:37 PM Reply #16 »
What are these filters you apply?
Are you only betting for a place?

be thankful, Im showing an interest

Thankful for what? Arguments?

Its a trial. Results will tell me what works. A couple of stats filters will be used

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2015-Aug-09, 08:40 PM Reply #17 »
Why would you start  a thread and not disclose anything?

Offline D-G

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« 2015-Aug-09, 08:41 PM Reply #18 »
Hareeba

I am curious how you come up with such exact %s, based on past trends?

Care to elaborate at all on what these trends are at all?

I understand if you don't want to

Offline Hareeba

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« 2015-Aug-09, 08:42 PM Reply #19 »
Why would you start  a thread and not disclose anything?

Do ratings people give up their formulas? Nope.


Offline The Jackal

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« 2015-Aug-09, 08:44 PM Reply #20 »
You gave 7 tips and none won but you claim to break even. Once again, don't hide, what staking plan did you use to achieve such wonderful results?

What are you talking about, you and PP7 have been doing the same thing for years. Pot calling the Kettle Black.

It does interest me, that's why I'm asking questions. What are these filters you apply?
Are you only betting for a place?

be thankful, Im showing an interest


Thankful,  Hilarious     :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2015-Aug-09, 08:44 PM Reply #21 »
Why do you understand if he doesn't want to.
It makes no sense to come to a public forum, start a topic and then refuse any involvement from anyone else. Why not just write the stuff down on a piece of paper at home where he can keep it to himself :chin:

Very odd behaviour

Offline Hareeba

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« 2015-Aug-09, 08:44 PM Reply #22 »
Hareeba

I am curious how you come up with such exact %s, based on past trends?

Care to elaborate at all on what these trends are at all?

I understand if you don't want to

I used points awarded based on 5 factors. The %s are just an estimate based on those factors.

Results will tell me what adjustments need to be made if any.

Offline Authorized

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« 2015-Aug-09, 08:46 PM Reply #23 »
Why do you understand if he doesn't want to.
It makes no sense to come to a public forum, start a topic and then refuse any involvement from anyone else. Why not just write the stuff down on a piece of paper at home where he can keep it to himself :chin:

Very odd behaviour

Actually willy this is in the members blog he can basically ( within reason ) do as he pleases.


Offline wily ole dog

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« 2015-Aug-09, 08:47 PM Reply #24 »
What are you talking about, you and PP7 have been doing the same thing for years. Pot calling the Kettle Black.


Thankful,  Hilarious     :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:


Thats been true at times and others it's not. Go Gust of Wind. Your last winner tipped here was?


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