Racehorse TALK

Other Talk => Blogs => Topic started by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-06, 11:05 AM

Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-06, 11:05 AM
I'm testing 5 factors that indicate whether a horse is likely to run at or near its best. I'm ignoring factors such as class, weight and barriers cause the main aim is to peel back the form layers to see if simply being 100% fit or near to it is enough to produce winners without additional considerations being used.

Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-06, 11:09 AM
Selections and their estimated % chance of running up to best form.

Br7
Cum Dividend 90%
Buakaw 90%

Mr5 Falago 95%
Mr7 Play Master 95%
Mr8 Tansy 77%

Sr5 Darci Magic 84%
Sr6 Lord Leofric 95%
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Authorized on 2015-Aug-06, 11:11 AM
James Conway ?
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-06, 02:36 PM
I don't know much about what Jim Conway does.
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Skybeau on 2015-Aug-06, 06:52 PM
I don't know much about what Jim Conway does.

Either does WOT
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: wily ole dog on 2015-Aug-06, 07:01 PM
Either does WOT




All these %'s.

I wonder if they appear 45.67% fit on the telly  :lol:

WOT and idiot
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Gintara on 2015-Aug-06, 09:01 PM
How are you estimating a horses fitness Hareeba?
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-06, 10:51 PM
How are you estimating a horses fitness Hareeba?

Based on past trends.
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-08, 09:57 PM
2 places. Break even the place.
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: wily ole dog on 2015-Aug-09, 09:20 AM
0 from 7 :chin: You may need to review those methods
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-09, 07:48 PM
0 from 7 :chin: You may need to review those methods

Break even. 2/6 placed and one of them a good thing beaten. Very good results from such a raw method with no filters. Excellent in fact. 2 or 3 filters produces a 200% profit.

Go back to lawn bowls you silly old fool.
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: wily ole dog on 2015-Aug-09, 08:18 PM
What staking plan did you use to break even with 0/7?
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-09, 08:22 PM
What staking plan did you use to break even with 0/7?

Wasnt 7.

2/6 placed break even
200% profit with filters

Id take that every week.
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: wily ole dog on 2015-Aug-09, 08:28 PM
You gave 7 tips and none won but you claim to break even. Once again, don't hide, what staking plan did you use to achieve such wonderful results?
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-09, 08:31 PM
You gave 7 tips and none won but you claim to break even. Once again, don't hide, what staking plan did you use to achieve such wonderful results?



Scratched horses arent losses you fool. 2/6 places was break even the place. With filters its 200% profit.

Its my topic. Piss off if it doesnt interest you. Obviously you have no life but to follow me around.
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: wily ole dog on 2015-Aug-09, 08:34 PM
It does interest me, that's why I'm asking questions. What are these filters you apply?
Are you only betting for a place?

be thankful, Im showing an interest
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-09, 08:37 PM
What are these filters you apply?
Are you only betting for a place?

be thankful, Im showing an interest

Thankful for what? Arguments?

Its a trial. Results will tell me what works. A couple of stats filters will be used
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: wily ole dog on 2015-Aug-09, 08:40 PM
Why would you start  a thread and not disclose anything?
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: D-G on 2015-Aug-09, 08:41 PM
Hareeba

I am curious how you come up with such exact %s, based on past trends?

Care to elaborate at all on what these trends are at all?

I understand if you don't want to
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-09, 08:42 PM
Why would you start  a thread and not disclose anything?

Do ratings people give up their formulas? Nope.

Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: The Jackal on 2015-Aug-09, 08:44 PM
You gave 7 tips and none won but you claim to break even. Once again, don't hide, what staking plan did you use to achieve such wonderful results?

What are you talking about, you and PP7 have been doing the same thing for years. Pot calling the Kettle Black.

It does interest me, that's why I'm asking questions. What are these filters you apply?
Are you only betting for a place?

be thankful, Im showing an interest


Thankful,  Hilarious     :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: wily ole dog on 2015-Aug-09, 08:44 PM
Why do you understand if he doesn't want to.
It makes no sense to come to a public forum, start a topic and then refuse any involvement from anyone else. Why not just write the stuff down on a piece of paper at home where he can keep it to himself :chin:

Very odd behaviour
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-09, 08:44 PM
Hareeba

I am curious how you come up with such exact %s, based on past trends?

Care to elaborate at all on what these trends are at all?

I understand if you don't want to

I used points awarded based on 5 factors. The %s are just an estimate based on those factors.

Results will tell me what adjustments need to be made if any.
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Authorized on 2015-Aug-09, 08:46 PM
Why do you understand if he doesn't want to.
It makes no sense to come to a public forum, start a topic and then refuse any involvement from anyone else. Why not just write the stuff down on a piece of paper at home where he can keep it to himself :chin:

Very odd behaviour

Actually willy this is in the members blog he can basically ( within reason ) do as he pleases.

Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: wily ole dog on 2015-Aug-09, 08:47 PM
What are you talking about, you and PP7 have been doing the same thing for years. Pot calling the Kettle Black.


Thankful,  Hilarious     :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:


Thats been true at times and others it's not. Go Gust of Wind. Your last winner tipped here was?
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-09, 08:47 PM
Why do you understand if he doesn't want to.
It makes no sense to come to a public forum, start a topic and then refuse any involvement from anyone else. Why not just write the stuff down on a piece of paper at home where he can keep it to himself :chin:

Very odd behaviour

No it isnt. My writing is messy. Forum gives me a way to keep track of things.

Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: wily ole dog on 2015-Aug-09, 08:48 PM
You could always use an excel document to keep your records and work out your plans :bulb:
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-09, 08:52 PM
You could always use an excel document to keep your records and work out your plans :bulb:

Been there done that. I have several spreadsheets already with complex formulas.
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: wily ole dog on 2015-Aug-09, 08:53 PM
I'm sure you do, that's good. I'll leave you and jackal to amuse each other  with this wonderful thread.

See ya  :lol:
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-09, 08:55 PM
I'm sure you do, that's good. I'll leave you and jackal to amuse each other  with this wonderful thread.

See ya   :lol:  

Ok bye bye. Thanks for your complaints.
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: The Jackal on 2015-Aug-09, 08:59 PM

Thats been true at times and others it's not. Go Gust of Wind. Your last winner tipped here was?


ENGLAND
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: D-G on 2015-Aug-09, 09:03 PM
I used points awarded based on 5 factors. The %s are just an estimate based on those factors.

Results will tell me what adjustments need to be made if any.

No worries.

Good luck with it   emthup

I really don't understand why Wily has a problem with you posting this?

I think anything that potentially has people thinking about things they may not have is a positive and praiseworthy   emthup

Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-09, 09:06 PM
No worries.

Good luck with it    emthup  

I really don't understand why Wily has a problem with you posting this?

I think anything that potentially has people thinking about things they may not have is a positive and praiseworthy    emthup  



Wily hates me.
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: D-G on 2015-Aug-09, 09:09 PM
Wily hates me.

Well you're doing far better than me if its only wily that hates you   ;)
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: The Jackal on 2015-Aug-09, 10:03 PM
Well you're doing far better than me if its only wily that hates you   ;)



The list of people that Wily doesn't hate is a very short list.
Wily likes it that way because it makes it easier to remember his lines.

Probably only 2-3 people on that list.... and Wily himself is one of them.    :lol:
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Gintara on 2015-Aug-09, 10:23 PM
No worries.

Good luck with it   emthup

I really don't understand why Wily has a problem with you posting this?

I think anything that potentially has people thinking about things they may not have is a positive and praiseworthy   emthup



Reading the thread I doubt Wily has a problem, he asked some basic questions and virtually got told to piss off without answers  :shrug:

The opening post talked about winners but later on it was about placegetters.  :chin:
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-09, 10:52 PM
Reading the thread I doubt Wily has a problem, he asked some basic questions and virtually got told to piss off without answers  :shrug:

The opening post talked about winners but later on it was about placegetters.  :chin:

Its a trial. I need 50+ selections to draw solid conclusions. First week showed decent result the place.

A place Div of $3.40 is worth more than a $1.50 winner.

Maybe you didnt know that.

Easy to be a critic.
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-09, 11:28 PM
Swan Hill
R5 Lord Esprit 95%

Bathurst
R6 Mayez 90%
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-10, 05:06 PM
Swan Hill
R5 Lord Esprit 95%

Bathurst
R6 Mayez 90%

Both 2nd. $1.30 and $1.40. Matagami was 60% with perfect score in 3 categories but zero in 2. Good data to work with.

Not firing with any winners but a profit the place. Good research.
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-10, 05:08 PM
Tues
Geelong r7 Bizarre 77%

Taree r7 Get on the Grange 60%

R8 Tarikah 67%
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-10, 05:12 PM
Wagga
R4 Leucura 95%
R8 Desert Destiny 87%
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-11, 06:40 PM
Tues
Geelong r7 Bizarre 77% 2nd $1.60

Taree r7 Get on the Grange 60% won $18.70 and $3.90

R8 Tarikah 67% unplaced
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-11, 06:41 PM
Wagga
R4 Leucura 95% 3rd $1.20
R8 Desert Destiny 87% won $2.70 and $1.10
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-11, 06:44 PM
Running Tally
13 starters
2 wins for 65% pot
8 places for 27% pot
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-11, 06:50 PM
Wed later
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-12, 09:35 AM
Wednesday
Belmont
R2 Travellin' 95%
R7 Shaytarna 53%
R9 Tenterden 74%, Conseated 68%

Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-12, 09:37 AM
Canterbury
R7 Sanzio 63%

Doomben
R6 Manfred the Man 84%, Honey Toast 80%
Doomben r7 Alpintoro 84%
R8 Beckham 84%
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-12, 05:33 PM
Canterbury
R7 Sanzio 63% 3rd $3.40

Doomben
R6 Manfred the Man 84% unplaced, Honey Toast 80% scratched
Doomben r7 Alpintoro 84% unplaced
R8 Beckham 84% scratched
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Skybeau on 2015-Aug-12, 08:39 PM
Hareeba,

I'm sure that there's higher % horses in a race, what makes you pick the ones in the 60% range?
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-12, 09:04 PM
Hareeba,

I'm sure that there's higher % horses in a race, what makes you pick the ones in the 60% range?

Not on my figures
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-12, 09:18 PM
Wednesday
Belmont
R2 Travellin' 95% 1st 2.50, 1.40
R7 Shaytarna 53% 2nd 2.40
R9 Tenterden 74% 4th, Conseated 68% 1st 6.90, 1.90


Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-12, 09:23 PM
Running Tally
20 starters
4 wins 55% pot
12 places 28% pot
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-14, 11:29 AM
Rosehill
R1 Peeping 95%, Kristy Lee 83%
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-14, 11:31 AM
R2 Astronomos 95%, Dylan's Rojo 83%, Marenostro 75%
R3 Centre Point 95%, Rugged Cross 83%, Silverball/Countryman 77%
R4 Footy Fan 55%
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-14, 11:32 AM
R5 6 horses on 95%.

R6 Princefamous/Gamblestown 95%
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-14, 11:33 AM
R7 Start Wondering/His Majesty 95%
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-14, 11:34 AM
R8 Havana Cooler 95%, Greatwood 78%
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-14, 11:37 AM
Caulfield
R1 Ruscello 66%
R2 Lake Sententia/Iggamacool 95%, Onpicalo 78%
R3 Stylish Miss 95%, Magmus Slipper 66%
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-14, 11:38 AM
R4 Loved Up 83%, Our Harmony 66%
R5 Gold Symphony 83%, Demonstrate/Ragazzo del c 66%
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-14, 11:40 AM
R7 Excess Knowledge 95%, No Tricks 83%, Mourinho 75%
R8 Sardaaj 95%, Fast n rocking 66%
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-16, 11:36 PM
Peeping 1.80
Dylan's Rojo 7.20
Centre Pivot 9.70
Onpicalo 3.60
Gold Symphony 6.60
Princefamous 2.10

Running tally
Win pot 44%. 12 wins from 51 starters.
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-16, 11:37 PM
Mourinho 8.40
Start wondering 2.90
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-16, 11:39 PM
Echuca
Vr5 Sithali 50%
Vr7 Charcoal lane 89%
Vr8 Matagami 95%, beauty cash 83%

Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-16, 11:41 PM
Coffs
R4 Around the moon 95%, barley lover 55%
R5 Fast Gary 95%, Another Girl 66%
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-17, 05:16 PM
Echuca
Vr5 Sithali 50% 4th
Vr7 Charcoal lane 89% unplaced
Vr8 Matagami 95%, 2nd


Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-17, 05:17 PM
Coffs
R4 Around the moon 95% scr barley lover 55% 2nd
R5 Fast Gary 95% unplaced, Another Girl 66% 1st 6.60
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-17, 05:20 PM
Running tally
58 starters
13 wins
22.4% strike rate
38% pot
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-17, 09:31 PM
Newcastle
R7 Danish Twist 95%

Bairnsdale
R6 Go One Better 83%, Military 66%
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-18, 05:59 PM
Newcastle
R7 Danish Twist 95% 2nd

Bairnsdale
R6 Go One Better 83% 1st Military 66% 2nd

Win $2.80, quinella $9.90
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-19, 12:53 PM
Belmont
R3 Studio Fifty Four 78%
R5 Aloha Miss 95%, Low Flying 66%
R8 Ceryn Delight 66%
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-19, 01:09 PM
Canterbury
R7 Schillacking 83%, Mark's Legacy 66%
Title: High chance of running up to best form
Post by: Hareeba on 2015-Aug-19, 01:32 PM
Seymour
R6 Squeaky Squirrel 95%, Pink Perfection 78%
R7 Choice Princess 95%, Neat and Tidy 66%
R8 Ty pan miss 95%
R9 Kachiko 95%, Solar Burst 66%