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Racehorse TALK



My Melbourne Metro Morals - Blogs - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: My Melbourne Metro Morals  (Read 6876 times)

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Offline calgary

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« 2012-Jan-03, 08:38 PM Reply #25 »
That's fine.

Choose an appropriate thread and go for it.

Early running for post of 2012!   :lol:

Offline Authorized

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« 2012-Jan-03, 08:38 PM Reply #26 »
Do I need to keep going?

No, You can always ignore the thread, you have got your point across and it seems to me most disagree with you. That does not mean you are wrong, I prove that the majority are wrong everyday.

Offline calgary

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« 2012-Jan-03, 08:40 PM Reply #27 »
I am just going to keep bumping those so I can get more certs for the trots.   :noteworthy:   :noteworthy:   :noteworthy:   :noteworthy:

Offline Skybeau

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« 2012-Jan-07, 07:44 AM Reply #28 »
Bet # 2, commentary for sooky lah lah TSM

Melb Race 7 # 5 Fabulist.

Winner 3 starts back in Adelaide, then close up 6th behind in form Let's Be Happy.  Another good run this track and distance on 26/12, behind promising There's Only One who peeled of her back in the straight.  D Dunn on board a bonus, currently $8 fixed odds on STAB.

Hoping for a reasonable pace so she can run over the top of them.

Offline Skybeau

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« 2012-Jan-07, 04:08 PM Reply #29 »
Looks like it should be the My Melbourne Metro Place Morals.

Offline Skybeau

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« 2012-Jan-14, 11:17 AM Reply #30 »
Bet # 3

Melbourne Race 7 #10 Gold Rust.

Winner 3 starts back at Provincial and then went to town with a solid effort behind the very promising Soft Sand, then even effort at Cranbourne.

Each way odds sure to be in it for a long way.  Currently $21 fixed odds on Super TAB.

Offline triple7

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« 2012-Jan-14, 12:49 PM Reply #31 »
Good luck Sky. I enjoy following your thoughts, hope this thread turns into some winners for you.   emthup

Offline Skybeau

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« 2012-Jan-14, 03:56 PM Reply #32 »
Not even close, picked a tough race to bet in for that one.

Might have to think about betting on young 3 YO's with limited starts.

Offline Thesmartman

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« 2012-Jan-14, 06:28 PM Reply #33 »
So am I Triples even though I was dragged through the mud, scolded, abused and criticised.  To read the tip is a pleasure.

The fact the scolding comments continued though I am still not impressed.

But it went in my quaddie and regardless of where it finished, I hope this sets a good precedent for all and Skybeau now has a "Blog".






Offline Skybeau

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« 2012-Jan-21, 08:27 AM Reply #34 »
Two bets today

Bet # 4,

Melb Race 3 #10, Stardom.

A way to the punting poor house is backing horses consistently unlucky in their previous runs, but for some reason I can't walk away from this Grey mare.  Ballarat winner 3 starts back, then close up against in form There's Only One (subsequently 4th in Listed class @ Flemington) @ Caulfield which contained Miss Matari and Fabulist who filled the placings behind Princess Narine last week.  Stardom was also in that race, but wasn't fully extended after  having to change course a few times in the straight.  Flemington should suit, and hopefully she flashes down the outside to get a win. Currently $5 fixed odds.

Bet # 5,

Melb Race 7 # 7, Token Of Hounour.

Winner over track/distance 3 starts back, then taken to Sandown and placed behind Power O'Raylee, who was an easy winner at Flemington last week.  Stepped up to a 95 class race and might have found the 2000m a bit far.  Back in distance today and drawn well with D Dunn on top, looks like good value.  Currently $8 fixed odds.

Offline Skybeau

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« 2012-Jan-26, 11:38 AM Reply #35 »
Didn't heed my own advice re unlucky horses at their next run as Stardom again was disappointing.  Had minor excuses, but is sin binned for me.  Token Of Honour settled further back than expected in a slowly run race and was no chance.

So I'm back again, but the patience is wearing thin, need a winner or else its back to the drawing board.

Bet # 5,

Melb Race 5 #4. Adamantium.

Lightly raced youngster who has only missed a place once in 6 starts. First up runs have yielded 3rd at Flemington (1000m) behind Jackpot Queen with African Pulse 2nd, and a 2nd at Ballarat over 1100m.  Three runs ago was a reasonable effort over the 1200m at MV before going on to win well at Caulfield over 1200m.  Then went to Flemington where he took on two above average colts in Sepoy and Foxwedge in the Coolmore where sent out @ $71.  Held position from 400 to finish 5th, only beaten 2.1L.  Currently $9 fixed odds on STAB.


Offline Wenona

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« 2012-Jan-26, 12:01 PM Reply #36 »
Didn't heed my own advice re unlucky horses at their next run as Stardom again was disappointing.  Had minor excuses, but is sin binned for me.  Token Of Honour settled further back than expected in a slowly run race and was no chance.

So I'm back again, but the patience is wearing thin, need a winner or else its back to the drawing board.


Mate, if you pick horses with a win price of $10+ and a win probability of 10% that will be enough to get you a level stakes profit.

But losing streaks of say 15+ will be NORMAL.

Even if you are good enough to make a level stakes profit of 10%, the most likely outcome of your first five bets is .... five losers.

Bit early to chuck in the towel.

Offline Skybeau

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« 2012-Jan-26, 12:37 PM Reply #37 »
Mate, if you pick horses with a win price of $10+ and a win probability of 10% that will be enough to get you a level stakes profit.

But losing streaks of say 15+ will be NORMAL.

Even if you are good enough to make a level stakes profit of 10%, the most likely outcome of your first five bets is .... five losers.

Bit early to chuck in the towel.

Statistics and patience are not my strong point though, that's why I suck at poker too!

Will keep going for a while as I've got some other stats stuff on the go that I have to compile and put into a database, so I'll soldier on.

Offline chuggers

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« 2012-Feb-04, 10:24 AM Reply #38 »
Skybeau,

Looking forward to you thoughts today    emthup

 :beer:

Offline Skybeau

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« 2012-Feb-04, 10:45 AM Reply #39 »
Mate, haven't had time to have a look at the form.  Have had a busy few weeks lately with kids birthday parties and trying to redo my garden.

Did have 3 bets last week that I'll have to update, Procida  :thumbsd:, Valedictorian  & Like An Eagle, needless to say they didn't win, but I'm getting closer.


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