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« 2010-Dec-02, 05:50 PM Reply #25 »
Mt Gambier R9
Shapes realistically as a race in 2 between Carthy Road and Kiasu with the latter looking better suited, Kiasu gets in here with a nice weight pull of 1.5k over Carthy Road and is likely to secure one of the runs of the race tracking an even speed from the 8 alley, bred to stay being by Pentire out of a NZ bred Kashani mare, close up at the provincials in NSW last prep as a maiden which reads well for what it takes on here and produced a good maiden win over 1600m at STawell 2 back on the back of finishing a close 3rd in a good race behind Sazzana at Ballarat, only needs to hold that form here to win, next best is Carthy Road followed by 6,1,5, lay any other runner under 10/1.

Mt Gambier R8
Very keen on the chances of Dara Seans here, lightly raced and very well bred by Giant's Causeway out of the Zabeel mare Golden Eagle who herself is out of the Danehill mare Rising Eagle who is a full sister to 2 stakes winners inc Ha Ha who won the G1 Golden Slipper & Flight Stakes amongst her 6 stakes wins, hard pressed to find a better pedigree anywhere in Australia on Friday, comes into this 4th up from a spell on the back of a win against stronger at Ararat 2 starts ago over 1600m, that franked 3.8l maiden win at Penola last prep, has scope for further improvement being lightly raced and drawn for a good low pressure trip, potentially one of the best bets of the day, anything better than 3.50 represents good value, next best 3,1,5,7, lay any other runner under 10/1

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« 2010-Dec-02, 08:03 PM Reply #26 »
Mt Gambier R7
Realistically 3 seen chances here, the big leaning is towards the Brooklyn Roads, gets in here superbly weighted with only 51kg after the claim for apprentice hoop, drawn wide but pace scenario suggests it is every chance of crossing to be on pace or lead without too much pressure early, if so then will prove hard to run down, Ace Or Joka has serious claims as does Zedawind and if 8/1 or better is bet about Zedawind then it may be worth nibbling at as well. Next best is 6,1,2,8,7 in order, Good trfiecta top 5 boxed 1,4,5,6,11. Lay any outside that top 5 that are under 10/1.

Mt Gambier R6
The 5 time winner of 11 career starts Evenmoreaction shapes as hard to beat here, as a lightly raced stayer is still on an upward spiral this prep to hit the level it did last prep when winning at Morphettville over 1600m in R2MW company $32K, 2nd up win this prep confirms well up to this level and has big improvement to come off that win over an unsuitable trip, will get the run of the race here tracking the leaders fairly soft, next best is Beaujolang, they have it between them, lay any other runner under 10/1, great quinella option top 2, anything better than 2.30 is good value about Evenmoreaction.

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« 2010-Dec-03, 02:58 AM Reply #27 »
Saturday Racing


Werribee R1
Overly strong race for the class, Lil Bit Musky is lightly raced and well bred with a good race profile inc 2nd to Hollowlea last prep on debut and franked that good maiden form when 2nd to Liveandletdie 2 starts later, drawn wide but likely to get cover tracking a fastish tempo with penty of speed drawn inside, 3,7,8 next best, lay any other runner under 10/1, good quinella 9 with 3,7,8 (3 combos)

Werribee R2
Very very strong maiden for this time of year, likely to throw up plenty of quickfire winners in the near future, decided to lean towards the Moody 1st starter Silky Silks here on top but confidence dulled by so many unexposed types but this one was impressive winning a very strong trial that has since worked out very well, minor concern that trial was 8 months ago but yard is very astute and places these type of runners to perfection, wide alley a query also but can be overcome, next best are 4,10,5,3,11 in that order, lay any other runner under 10/1, need 4.80+ for value about Silky Silks

Werribee R3
This may potentially shape up to be the best bet of the day on Saturday, very hard to go past the Hayes trained Edge Of Time, debut effort last prep when producing big closing pard 2nd to Condelago suggests it is well above the level required to win here, suited better over this 1400m trip and the good margin 2nd to 3rd on debut in a 12 horse field also reads well, drawn wide but likely to go forward and race a lot closer to a slow pace here without having to work too hard early, super weak race and this one well above the level, very hard to beat, anything better than 1.70 is good value, remembering we hate pricing horses under 2.00 that alone suggests this is super hard to beat!

Werribee R4
Potentially a very good value 2 horse war, leaning towards Catwalk Diva on top who was scratched earlier in the week in preference for this, three 2nds on end earlier this prep all suggest well up to winning a race of this nature, every chance of hitting that level again here under suitable conditions, the Hayes trained She's Ayce is the other one worth backing here, may race closer to the pace being drawn down in the 1 alley and very lightly raced with potentially the most scope of these, effort to finish 8th 2 back was not that far off in the context of things here, next best outside top 2 are 4,6/8,9 in that order, lay any outside top 4 that trade under 10/1.

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« 2010-Dec-10, 02:12 AM Reply #28 »
Mornington
R2 No11 Who's Bad - blinkers 1st time, look minimum +3l to +4l on this level, very well bred

R3 No8 Kwaito - blinkers off 1st time, well up to winning this on 1st up effort 2 preps ago, not disgraced last prep, good speed pedigree, well placed this grade.

R6 No7 Total Liberty - winkers 1st time, winner 2 from 2 1st up and is 1st up here, 1st up win last prep says up to $15k+, in well weighted, good alley, plenty to like

R7 No2 Keep Cool - blinkers 1st time, only 2l off stronger both runs this prep, looks $15K+ as a minimum and scope for more for blinkers and 3rd up fitter, not badly weighted considering, serious claims


Swan Hill
Nil


Moonee Valley
R2 No8 Furtively - winkers 1st time / blinkers off 1st time, may be up to this maiden level $30k tag on effort 2 back, not disgraced on wet last start, new peak likely

R3 No8 Thou Shall Conquer - blinkers 1st time, did all the work on the front last start 3rd, battled on strong, held sway over some decent $15k maidens, capable here with the right trip infront

R4 No7 Star Pegasus - blinkers off 1st time / visor 1st time, not to be taken lightly, trial form suggests well up to this level, well weighted, well drawn for a good trip, ticks a few boxes at a likely sneaky price


Randwick
R3 No4 Angelican - winkers 1st time, debut effort 2 back took significant ground off soft leader coming from last, 3rd btn 1.6l better suited and fitter here, significant scope, Cummings trained, has serious claims this grade.

R5 No6 Miss Shamardal - winkers 1st time, capable of refinding best form here 4th up, not disgraced 2 back vs stronger $70k suggestig improvement from gear change, if at best shakes this in a serious way

R6 No1 Sukab - winkers 1st time, no pace in this race, with winkers 1st time dont be surprised to see this one cross and lead from wide gate, may prove hard to run down if it does and at a big price, very much capable this grade with right trip.


Oakbank
R2 No8 Delicious Belle - blinkers 1st time, on trial form prior to 1st career start looks potentially 2 levels above this grade as a minimum, inside gate for soft on pace trip, very well weighted after claim, ticks plenty of boxes, very well placed by astute yard.

R3 No8 Steely Resolve - blinkers 1st time, potentially could measure up well here on various pieces of form, debut 5.5l 8th last prep $40k not as bad as it initially looks, chance at odds.

R6 No4 Sixtykay - blinkers 1st time, potentially a level above this grade on 1st up win 3 back, better suited this trip and scope for more, well placed in what looks a fairly average for for the class.


Bunbury
R2 No8 Dante's Last - blinkers 1st time, 3 duck eggs next to its name suggests no ability but trial 3rd at Belmont prior to 1st career start hints of ability, gear change may spark that level, likely big odds, minor specking warranted.

R4 No12 Amelia's Tiger - blinkers 1st time, bred to be a stayer and finally gets to that trip here 3rd up now, race form nothing to write home about but trial 2nd with margin to 3rd prior to debut suggests it has decent ability, on a repeat clearly above the level required here, very good value vs confidence likely.

R4 No14 Always Sunday - blinkers 1st time, significant class drop on debut failure, very well bred staying pedigree, sharp improvement would be no surprise, warrants specking at odds.


Ipswich
R4 No17 You'd Better - blinkers 1st time, ran on strongly making up most ground on debut when slowly away, settled closer next and only other start, blinkers go on 1st time, repeat of debut run with natural improvement for gear change could see it figure at big odds, warrants specking.

R7 No17 MIss Dragoness - blinkers off 1st time, beaten greater than 10l all 3 starts, trial form reads much better, 6l 2nd in 1060m Doomben trial prior to this start suggests may be up to this and at a big price, warrants minor specking.

R8 No12 The Crusader - winkers 1st time, great 1st up record and is 1st up here, big failure last 3 starts but repeat of 1st up win 2 preps ago and it will prove hard to hold out here, repeat of 1st up 3rd last prep says it is still right in it, likely double figure odds, good confidence vs value bet.


Sunshine Coast
R5 No11 La Belle Aurore - winkers off 1st time, 2 decent trials inc 0.2l 2nd prior to debut and then debut 5th btn 1.1l when unlucky on debut read decent for this, every chance it will go around at big odds, warrants specking.

R7 No2 Pegunny Frog - blinkers 1st time, debut 3rd at Eagle Farm 2 back looks very strong for this, 1st 4th and 5th all won in their next 2 starts, potentially 2 levels above the class required here, very well placed.


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« 2010-Dec-10, 06:43 PM Reply #29 »
Amelias tiger nice win at 25/1, bunbury r4

"very good value vs confidence bet"


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« 2010-Dec-28, 08:23 PM Reply #30 »
Looks as though we've lost Racecapper again.  Maybe just on Chrissy break.

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« 2011-Mar-03, 03:16 PM Reply #31 »
Warwick Farm R1 - 12.55pm 1100m Open 2yo $100K      
Name   Price   Comment
No1 Defiant Dame   1.63   G2++?, highly impressive on debut beating subsequent Blue Diamond place getter Hallowell Belle by 3.5l at Listed level, only defeat in short career has come at the hands of speed freak Karuta Queen in the Magic Millions, well above the level required to win here.
No2 Foxwedge   5.70   G3+?, trial winner by 8l in heavy going prior to debut win at Rosehill in November, beat home 2 very well bred Redoute's Choice youngsters, obviously has loads of ability, dam won on debut in the USA over 2f in blistering time
No6 Anise   7.70   Lst++?, made all on debut to hold sway over Saramenha by 1.8l at Rosehill over 1100m, Saramenha has won previous 2 on end by big margins, form franked, tuned up for this with a 4l trial 3rd to Defiant Dame.

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« 2011-Mar-03, 03:16 PM Reply #32 »
Flemington R2 - 1.15pm 2000m Open $75K      
Name   Price   Comment
No2 Hanks   3.30   G2??, looked well above average winning the G2 AAMI Vase over 2040m as a 3yo in Oct 2009, form lacklustre last 2 preps but blinkers go on 1st time and it is hard to deny that Peter Moody can turn one around, if so will shake this at a price.
No3 Laristan   3.70   G3-G2+??, Hayes trained French import who showed well above average staying ability in France, winkers go on 1st time here on the back of doing nothing 1st up over an unsuitable trip, yard in form and if it reproduces its European form its right in this.
No1 Mourayan   4.70   G3+??, likely to race forward on a slow tempo (could even lead), finished 2nd in the G1 Metropolitian over 2400m last prep employing the same tactics, weight is a big query.
No6 Anudjawun   7.00   Lst-G3?, lightly raced staying prospect 4th up here at peak now on the back of finishing a hard closing 2nd to the inform King Diamond, pace scenario against it having to come from back off a slow pace but has plenty of upside and gets in on the minimum.

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« 2011-Mar-03, 03:16 PM Reply #33 »
Warwick Farm R2 -1.35pm 1600m MR84 $70K      
Name   Price   Comment
No3 New Day Rising   2.20   Lst-G3+??, lightly raced Fastnet Rock gelding 2nd up from a spell, as a 2yo chased home Tickets to finish 2nd in the G2 Darley Stakes btn 0.5l, also showed numerous glimpses last prep that he is stakes quality in the making, stretching out to 1600m here may see him hit a new peak level.
No4 Sanderson   6.50   70-Lst???, mixes form, totally out of sorts this prep but trainer persists in shipping south to this stronger class, G3 winner in Brisbane last prep over 1600m but depth of form very questionable.
No6 Confessional   9.00   70?, 3rd up ready to hit peak form now, good merit associated to both runs this prep, better suited now, outside place claims.
No5 Prior Baron   10.00   70?, in a rich vein of form as a 7yo in 3 runs this prep, no further scope but can mix it at this advertised level on current exposed form
No2 Lockmar   12.50   70?, hit a new unexpected peak last start winning over 1500m at Rosehill for the same $70K tag, form refs out of the race have merit but queryies exist around ability to reproduce that level.

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« 2011-Mar-03, 03:17 PM Reply #34 »
Flemington R3 - 1.55pm 1100m Open 3yo+f&m $100K      
Name   Price   Comment
No4 Psychologist   2.35   200-250+??, looked a world beater on debut winning the Blue Diamond Prelude by 4.3l at G3 level, 5th in the Blue Diamond 2nd start franked that form, did enough to win vs weaker 1st up last start, scope for plenty more.
No3 Dubleanny   3.70   160-200+?, 1st up last prep finished 2nd to Set for Fame in G2 company at Caulfield, won 4 on end prep prior inc a convincing win over Doubtful Jack, capable in G2 company vs the right horses.
No2 Valentine Miss   8.30   120-140, G3 winner 2nd up last prep at Caulfield, depth of form out of the race slightly questionable as a true G3 reference but still very capable in this grade.
No6 Miss Matari   10.00   100+??, forget last prep, off the scene for 224 days in prep for return here, won 1st up 2 preps ago defeating Valentine Miss, form out of that race and next start 3rd at Listed level suggests it is up to this level.
No1 Big Spirit   17.00   100-120, super consistent finishing 1st or 2nd 5 of 6 runs this prep, creeping up in the weights but up to this class, no further scope.

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« 2011-Mar-03, 03:17 PM Reply #35 »
Flemington R4 - 2.35pm 2600m Lstd $150K      
Name   Price   Comment
No1 King Diamond   4.60   G3+??, lightly raced stayer who is in a rich vein of form winning 3 of last 4, suited by longer trip and bred for it by Danewin out of a Zabeel mare, has beaten Vesper each of last 2 starts who came out and won at Listed level last start, only horse to beat it last 4 starts is high class stayer Cedarburg, plenty to like.
No16 Mateo   5.20   Lst+?, hit a new peak at M Valley last start winning over 2500m, form refs out of that race through numerous angles give it a 0.5kg pull on King Diamond at the weights.
No4 Muir   8.00   Lst+??, former Irish galloper who made all at Sandown 2 back scoring by 2.3l in $70K Saturday company, form refs out of race suggests handy Listed level ability as does European form
No3 Vesper   9.00   Lst+??, Listed winner last start but depth of form questionable, well held by King Diamond 3 starts prior and hard to see it turning the tables here.
No15 Our Serena   12.50   Lst??, loves this distance and this track, hit form winning at Bendigo last start for a rich $75K purse for the area, that form suggests it is at a level which saw it run a close up 4th to Rundle then Exceptionally at the end of last prep on this track.
No10 White Yard   12.50   Lst?, overly consistent last 3 starts at M Vall then twice in Tasmania in G3 company without winning, has cliams on those form refs, gets in decently weighted.

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« 2011-Mar-03, 03:18 PM Reply #36 »
Warwick Farm R4 - 2.55pm 1100m MR95 $70K      
Name   Price   Comment
No2 Latin News   3.70   G3+?, trial winner in prep for return, below par last prep but 1st up 2 preps ago won at Listed level than ran a close 3rd to Albert The Fat in the G1 BTC Classic.
No4 Tromso   5.80   Lst-G3?, good hidden merit associated to 1st up effort last prep over 1200m on this track, blowsed by Onthelookout but put a good margin back to stakes quality horses and lumped a big weight, gooes well fresh and capable of a new peak here.
No1 McClintock   7.40   Lst-G3?, trial winner in prep for return suggests he is ready for this 1st up assignment, blinkers come off which may spark return to peak form, if so will prove hard to hold out.
No6 Title   8.00   Lst-G3?, won 3 on end last prep in strong Saturday $70K company by good margins, form refs out of those wins suggests it is definite blacktype on the make, beaten 2.8l by McClintock in a trial in prep for return, well weighted.
No3 Zaratone   8.70   Lst+?, winner last 3 on end, keeps on repelling them on the front end but rises in class again here and has 55kg after the claim, may be tested
No8 Atomic Force   13.00   Lst?, produced a couple of good margin wins last prep in $70K company, looks to have a distinct liking for rain effected going but shapes as a minor level stakes performer when the cards fall its way.

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« 2011-Mar-03, 03:18 PM Reply #37 »
Flemington R5 - 3.20pm 1400m G3 3yo+f&m $150K      
Name   Price   Comment
No9 Preventable   3.40   G3++?, looked well above average last prep at Sandown over 1500m scoring by 4.5l, strong on line and was eased up close home, could have won by further, that was 3rd leg of 4 race win streak, 2nd up now ready to hit peak form again, serious claims here if it produces its best, weight pull vs Aloha critical.
No3 Aloha   3.60   G3-G2+??, came of age last prep winning 5 from 7, last 3 of them by big margins, very well bred by Encosta De Lago out of the 1000m stakes winning Danehill mare Tennessee Midnight, has an on pace racing style and 1400m 1st up should pose no problems in this company.
No7 I'm Discreet   6.60   G3+?, 2nd up fitter now with blinkers goingo n 1st time for the astute Russel Cameron yard, only run last prep chased home Danzylum 2nd, form ref out of that reads well back to Aloha at the weights here and confirms Aloha formline from when these 2 met as 3yo in the Schweppes Oaks in Adelaide.
No5 Flying Tessie   9.00   G3=, 1st up last prep just held by Varenna Miss over 1100m, Varenna Miss since 4th to Eagle Falls in G1 company last start, 1400m here suits better and on that form and prior close up efforts in minor stakes company has to be respected here.

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« 2011-Mar-03, 03:18 PM Reply #38 »
Warwick Farm R5 - 3.42pm 1400m G2 3yof $200K      
Name   Price   Comment
No1 More Strawberries   3.25   G1+,+??, winner of 2 very strong G2 races on end last prep over 1400m and 1500m, 2nd up here and expected to get back to peak level
No2 Parables   4.50   G1+?, 2nd up on the back of chasing home Obsequious last start, form from last prep over similar trips reads very strong inc close 2nd to More Strawberries with a big margin to 3rd in G2 company over 1500m.
No3 Red Tracer   4.50   G1+?, very good last start when 0.4l 2nd to Obsequious over 1200m at Randwick in G2 company, form franked with Parabvles back in 3rd, solid claims here.
No9 Potions   6.90   G2+,+??, big scope for improvement being so lightly raced 2nd up from a spell on the back of good closing pars when 4th btn 2.3l by Obsequious.

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« 2011-Mar-03, 03:19 PM Reply #39 »
Flemington R6 - 4.05pm 1600m G1 3yo $750K      
Name   Price   Comment
No15 We Can Say It Now   5.00   G1+?, ships over from NZ 2nd up for this for the astute Baker yard, ultra impressive beating older horses in G1 company over 1600m end of last prep by 4l, minor queries over the depth out of that race but on exposed form does look well up to what is shaping as an overall weak G1 race.
No13 Enjin Number Nine   6.20   G1=, hard to knock the form out of his 2nd up win 2 starts ago with Bullbars 2nd and Star Witness 3rd, scored by good margins that day over 1300m and was strong on the line, breeding and that win both suggest will handle the 1600m, came on strong last start on wrong part of track then one paced as winners flashed down the centre of track, good merit, likely perfect trip, in thios up to its ears.
No16 Southern Speed   9.00   G1?, deceivingly well bred by triple G1 winner (7f to 10f) Southern Image out of a Zabeel mare who herself is out of a full sister to Golden Slipper winner Ha Ha, winner 3 from 3 in short career and keeps on improving, capable of new peak here which makes it hard to beat on exposed form through last start win.
No7 Bullbars   12.00   G1??, 2nd up winner last start over 1400m on this track in G2 company, came from well off the pace and was still strong on the line, scope for more 3rd, sire (Elusive Quality) is having a purple patch run currently, overall last start was a weakish quality affair for the tag but with natural scope can figure here.
No20 Absolutelyawesome   13.00   G1???, looked unlucky 1st up making big headway from well back when 5th to Bullbars, copped no end of traffic and should have finished closer, 2nd up fitter over a more suitable trip, has scope for big improvement, could surprise at big odds.
No1 Anacheeva   17.00   G1-, has failed to come up in 2 runs this prep so far but blinkers go on 1st time for this 3rd up assignment, won the G1 Caulfield Guineas 3rd up last prep but proximity of lowly rated place getters that day does put queries around the form out of the race although did space the rest further back, Moody trained.
No14 Shamrocker   17.00   G1-?, solid 1st up behind Southern Speed, will come on a lot for that run, G2 winner over 1400m on this track as a 2yo defeating Willow Creek and Yosei, likely for new peak and has outside claims here

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« 2011-Mar-03, 03:19 PM Reply #40 »
Warwick Farm R6 - 4.26pm 1600m G1 3yo+WFA $350K      
Name   Price   Comment
No11 Melito   3.00   G1+,+?, 2nd up from a spell and expected to improve again on the back of winning 1st up by 1.8l in the G2 Apollo Stakes, treated them with contempt and hit the line strongly suggesting further improvement is warranted, well placed here.
No1 Theseo   7.50   G1, high class proven G1 WFA performer but is 1st up here, trial winner in prep for return, has won 1600m G1 WFA contests 3 of last 4 preps.
No7 Maluckyday   9.60   G1??, came of age winning 3 on end last prep before finishing 2nd to Americain in the Melbourne Cup, 1st up here and obviously is looking for further but is sure to have come on again since spelling and warrants respect as a prior 1600m winner.
No6 Centennial Park   10.80   G1??, G2 winner 1st up then well held by Melito when 3rd last start in G2 company, hit the line strongly suggesting further minor scope into this run.
No4 Once Were Wild   12.00   G1??, looks to be back in form on the back of finishing a good 4th to Melito 1st up in the G2 Apollo Stakes btn only 2.8l, suited over further and sure to improve again here.
No2 Descarado   13.00   G1??, Caulfield Cup winner last prep and also finished 2nd to So You Think at G1 WFA after that, has come of age now but may find this too short.
No9 Luen Yat Forever   17.00   G1-??, former high class Singapore galloper now with Peter Moody, interesting that he pushes onto into this G1 WFA contest after failing 1st up, tested Wall Street at G1 level btn 0.5l over 1600m last prep

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« 2011-Mar-03, 03:26 PM Reply #41 »
I am surprised they are backing Psychologist up so quickly after a long lay off.

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« 2011-Mar-03, 03:44 PM Reply #42 »
I am surprised they are backing Psychologist up so quickly after a long lay off.

astute yard, astute connections, dont think they would be backing up if it hadnt come through the last run with flying colours

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« 2011-Mar-05, 02:39 PM Reply #43 »
I am surprised they are backing Psychologist up so quickly after a long lay off.


Nice call Authorized, as per recent tweet

FLEM Post race report: Race3 Psychologist - rider: may not have backed up from last start win, and got a little lost down the straight

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« 2011-Mar-11, 08:00 PM Reply #44 »
analysis for saturday for 14 races attached as pdf

[attachment deleted by admin]

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« 2011-Mar-12, 03:05 AM Reply #45 »
attached saturday updated, now 20 races covered. hopefully a big punting day.... it feels that way!

[attachment deleted by admin]

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« 2011-Mar-12, 09:38 AM Reply #46 »
final saturday attached with scratching removed

[attachment deleted by admin]

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« 2011-Mar-14, 03:23 AM Reply #47 »
total 13 races attached for monday

[attachment deleted by admin]


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