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Offline racecapper

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O.P. « 2010-Nov-27, 02:17 AM »
We all know how this works, good previews and plenty of value winners....the quality of which you will find hard to match anywhere else!

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« 2010-Nov-27, 02:19 AM Reply #1 »
Saturday 27 November

Sand R2 1500m c6 $70k
realistically 2 main chaces, Overtake vs Kallogg, Overtake looks slightly better favoured due to a potential soft on pace trip and superiority at the weights on a formline back through True Persuasion, next best No's 4&5, anything better thaan 3.30 is good value. If No4 or 5 are shorter than 9/2 then lay. Anything else under 10/1 outside those top 4 can also be laid.

Sand R3 1400m c3 $70k
Bellissimo ships down from Sydney on the back of an emphatic 4l win at Randwick last start on heavy over 1600m in Saturday company, lightly raced havinhg only its 4th start and has further scope and already looks potential Group class on the make, hard to say that about the others, Josimar also has claims at big odds, next best 7,8,11. Lay anything else outside these 5 under 10/1.

Sand R4 2400m Open $70K
Pace scenario is critical here, Butwaittheresmore gets a soft trip on the front and and looks the 1 to beat, no major confidence, 4 significant other contenders are 3,4,8,9 (no order).

Sand R5 1000m Open3yo+f&m $70K
No6 Free Spirited - minor confidence

Sand R6 1300m $70K OPen
Great value 2 horse war, No13 The Handsome One clearly infront of Jungle Ruler who lobs for next best in the 2 horse war, Realistically Emjay Hussey can be backed to at very big odds, 12/1, 8/1, 40/1 are there 3 prices in order, 6.7.8 next best

Sandown R7 1800m $70k C6
Tampiko may just be the best bet of the day here, looks potentially Group quality on the make, if so then it has the measure of this lot, near perfect trip, well weighted, flying, simply ticks box after box, 1.95 early fixed odds is an acceptable quote and very rarely do we suggest taking odds on...that is how big confidence is on this one, next best 11,10,9

Newc R1 900m Mdn3yof $14K
Dual trial winner Madame Papillion on top here slightly infront of potential value runner Beauty's Choice, Mouli right there for 3rd, those 3 clear of the others and should have it between them, lay any other runner under 10/1.

Newc R2 900m Mdnc&g $14K
Slight leaning towards the speed pedigree 1st starter New York's Finest on its first trial effort 2nd, soft since, next best only just behind the top elect is Parriwi, No's 3,2 next best slightly below.

Newc R4 1200m Mdn $14K
Plenty of unexposed form and 1st starters blunting overall confidence but 2 of these do look clear of the resto, on top we have Waterhouse 1st starter and 3 time trial winner Our Freedom, the alley is a query but not a lot of speed in the race, may get across without working too hard, next best clearly is No13 Madam Nash only just below top elect, if enough depth in prices back both for a result across the race. No's 9,6,7 in order are bext best.

Newc R7 1400m $14K
Very open race, Army Of One slightly on top here infront of Raspberries, worth backing both if value exists, very close up next best is Curonian and Fly To Freedom, lay any other under 10/1

Yar Glen R2 1950m Mdn $12K
Very weak race on heavy going, one that fits the bill is Catwalk Diva, finished 2nd in 3 races on end over 1400m-1600m in heavy earlier this prep against slightly stronger quality maidens coming from well back, suited this trip, potential decent value, may get 9/2 which is great value, next best close up are No's 9,2

Yar Glen R3 1000m $12K
Plenty of 1st starters engaged here with no trial form creating decent sized queries but race experience counts for plenty in these types of race, Top Flight is bred to be a good speed horse and on debut finished a very credeible 5th to Glenkinchie at Mornington in Open 2yo company, well above the level required here on a repeat, dangers in order are 11,4,5 closely bunched but clear minimum 1 level below Top Flight, 11/4 or better is good value, very likely that price will be bet.

Yar Glen R4 1200m Mdnf&m $12K
Realistically shapes as 2 main chances here, Moody had 2 engaged (Lady Of The Lamp, a likely scratching), his other one with Linda Meech booked Global Anthem looks clearly the one to beat here ticking most of the right boxes, midweek sity sprinter on the make, close up behind is Husskila and they are well clear of the rest. Global Anthem one of the better bets of the day, anything better than 11/8 is good value.

Yar Glen R5 1500m Mdn $12K
Shapes as a race in 2 between Fu Jak and Politely, clear leaning to Fu Jak stepping to 1500m 2nd up, breed handle wet and hit line hard 1st up over 1300m from well off the pace 2nd to one who won in $30K company next start by 2l, very big form ref for this. Anything better than just short of 2/1 (2.90) represents value. No4 Next best below those 2, lay any other runner under 10/1.

Morph R3 1250m LY1 $32K
If Al's Best Mate can repeat its effort 2 back when a close up 2.5l 7th against much stronger then it will go very close to winning this, every chance 3rd up it will rate above that level dropping so sharply in class, one that is a minor hope of surprising at huge odds is maiden runner Ottana, on offer at 100/1 in early fixed odds market, crazy price, nibble at it as well with major outlay on Al's Best Mate, currently 3.20 in early fixed odds markets, probably want 3.50 for good value.

Morph R4 1950m C3 $25K
Good quality staying event for the class, shapes as mainly a race in 2 between Legislature and Drivel, Legislature has more upside and gets the best of the pace scenario, slight leaning towards it on top with Drivel clear 2nd best, 3rd and 4th are Beleconi and Tea For Three in that order, also a watch on La Siroque who is the one with potential to improve significantly. Legistature offers up good odds at 5/1 in early fixed odds markets, realistic 15/4 chance. Tea For Three at less than 2/1 is the value lay.

Morph R5 1550m LY1 $32K
Shapes as a good confidence betting race, Avoca Street looks well placed here as the top elect but claims also given to River's Lane at good double figure odds, back both with major outlay on Avoca Street and minor outlay on River's Lane fur a good confidence result across the race, only other seen chance is Andamooka Gem, lay anything else under 10/1.

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« 2010-Nov-27, 02:23 AM Reply #2 »
5 potentially good value place bets to play for the day

Value Place Bets
Sandown R3 No9 Josimar (1) - if greater than 12/1
Sandown R6 No13 The Handsome One (2), is 12/1 in early fixed odds
Newcastle R1 No2 Beauty's Choice (1) may be 8/1 with luck here
Morphettville R3 No8 Ottana (1), crazy odds of 100/1 on offer early fixed odds
Morphettville R5 No8 River's Lane (1.5), 12/1 in early fixed odds markets, may get longer

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« 2010-Nov-27, 03:47 AM Reply #3 »
Morph R6 1000m C3 4yo+m $25K
Shapes as a very strong race for the class with 4 seen realistic chances, Ready Miss is drawn the inside gate with only 54.5kg after the claim for Hopwood, massive advantage in a race jam packed with speed, trial winner in prep for return since shipping over from Sydney, highly impressive 3.8l winner 1st up in Sydney last prep, 2nd best is Mountain Cat also over from NSW, slightly below that rates Kissable and Belle Diva who also both have solid chances, Ready Miss is quoted 3.60 in early fixed odds markets, really want slightly closer to 3/1 or 4.00 for good value.

GCst R3 1800m Mdn $10K
Overal shapes as a strong staying maiden for this area, the likely slow pace scenario will prove critical here, clear on top major elect on exposed race form is Zedacharge, last start 2nd full of merit, scope for more, big margins further back that day, repeat and should win here, very well bred Miss Napoli is the major danger and Newstart may also be a big improver here at large odds and may be worth nibbling on with the major bet definitely on Zedacharge with very good confidence, anything better than 2.60 is value for Zedacharge.

Mark

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« 2010-Nov-27, 08:15 AM Reply #4 »
Like the confidence with Tampiko, I was similarly confident, got set last night bigtime at $2.10 after the early scr, shame its a heavy, but I trust Pete has made the right decision.

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« 2010-Nov-27, 12:29 PM Reply #5 »
5 potentially good value place bets to play for the day

Value Place Bets
Sandown R3 No9 Josimar (1) - if greater than 12/1
Sandown R6 No13 The Handsome One (2), is 12/1 in early fixed odds
Newcastle R1 No2 Beauty's Choice (1) may be 8/1 with luck here
Morphettville R3 No8 Ottana (1), crazy odds of 100/1 on offer early fixed odds
Morphettville R5 No8 River's Lane (1.5), 12/1 in early fixed odds markets, may get longer



Beauty's Choice - 16/1 winner

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« 2010-Nov-27, 12:30 PM Reply #6 »
Dances On Waves great value at 5.30 on Betfair to roll the short priced fav in R2 at Randwick.

Offline usernametaken

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« 2010-Nov-27, 12:41 PM Reply #7 »
Just noticed this tip   :tears:

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« 2010-Nov-27, 12:45 PM Reply #8 »
Dances On Waves great value at 5.30 on Betfair to roll the short priced fav in R2 at Randwick.

Drifted out to 5.90 on Betfair, another nice priced winner.

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« 2010-Nov-27, 12:46 PM Reply #9 »
well done on Newc and the syd wins.  8-)

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« 2010-Nov-27, 01:38 PM Reply #10 »
Another very good priced winner, Our Freedom, Newcastle R4, paid 10.50.

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« 2010-Nov-27, 01:56 PM Reply #11 »
They keep on coming, another winner, Morphettville R4 Legislature, paid 9.50

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« 2010-Nov-27, 02:00 PM Reply #12 »
Zedacharge lobs at the Gold Coast winning by a widening 5l margin in R3, simply to good.

Go nash

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« 2010-Nov-27, 02:09 PM Reply #13 »
Good going Capper - prices are nice  :clap2:

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« 2010-Nov-28, 12:41 PM Reply #14 »
Short updates race by race during Sunday, generally 10-15 minutes before post time for each selected race.


Grafton R2 - Narcelo (bet 3 units) looks the one to beat, also nibble at Triple Treats (bet 1 unit) who may surprise at odds.

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« 2010-Nov-28, 01:45 PM Reply #15 »
CRIMSON RIBBON is the one to beat in R4 at Canberra, trading approx 3.10 on exchanges, slight overs, strong confidence.

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« 2010-Nov-28, 11:23 PM Reply #16 »
Terang R1 1856m Mdn 3yo+ $12K
Very weak race for the maiden tag on offer, most have had their fair share of chances and offer no further scope, one that defies that scenario is Big City Dreams, by a Danzig line sire who ran 2nd in the Irish 2000 Guineas to Rock Of Gibraltar out of stoutly bred UK mare, this trip suits, 4th up peak fitness and 2 back close up 3rd at Ararat puts it slightly above the level required to win here, No's 2,9 next best, not a strong lay betting race, anything better than 3.00 is value for Big City Dreams


Terang R3 1206m Mdnf&m $12k
A few unexposed well bred types engaged here, could breate good value, leant towards Le Bel Away on top, failed on debut, supported in betting, this weaker, smart yard, good draw, need 6.50+ for value,

Terang R4 1000m Mdn3yo+ $12k
Overly weak maiden for the tag, shapes as a race in 2 between Top Flight and Profitabul, clear leaning towards Top Flight, debut 5th in a hot Open 2yo at Mornington 2 preps ago reads very strong for this, drawn wide but a lot of speed engaged and likely to track across and get cover stalking, on a repeat of debut 5th will prove hard to hold out, anything better than 3.00 shapes as good value, likely to be clearly a better price3, one of the better bets on the Terang card in terms of value vs confidence, next best 11,8. Lay any other runner under 10/1.

Terang R5 1000m C13yo+f&m $12k
Strong looking race for the class, leaning towards the speedily bred All In Favour on top here who resumes from a spell, in well weighted after 4kg claim, likely leader, next best 4,1, anything better than 3.70 shapes as good value.

Terang R6 1606m 0-72hcp $12k
Hard to go past the chances of Pilot's Lane here who gets in well weighted after being overly consistent this prep in stronger races on paper, 2nd 2 back at Sale and 2nd 4 back at Benalla both read well, repeat of either of those starts makes it the one to beat, likely good trip from a good alley, ticks plenty of boxes, No's 6,8,3 next best in that order, lay any other runner under 10/1.

Terang R7 1206m 0-62hcp $12k
Shapes as a fairly weak race for the class that isnt likely to take too much to win, the topweight Perian Moon has a profile with big scope, lightly raced, well bred, strong maiden win only start last prep at Swan Hill, only one to make up significant ground in a leader dominated race that day, 2nd home won 3 of next 5 adding big depth, good margin 3rd to 4th and 4th to 5th, well drawn in the 2 alley to get one of the runs of the race stalking from better than midfield, ticks plenty of boxes, next best 3,9,12, potential good laying race, anything better than 4.30 represents good value.

Terang R8 1406m 0-68hcp $12k
Potentially enough value here to back 2 for a result across the race, clearly on top here we have Lunar Blonde, 1st up 2nd 2 back to Varenna MIss full of merit, big scope for more, suited this trip, 3rd up at peak now, also worth backing Sky Devil who may get it soft on the front end and surprise at big odds, next best ouyside those 2 are 8,6,11,12, lay any other runner under 10/1. Bet 3 units to 1 unit Lunar Blonde to Sky Devil

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« 2010-Nov-29, 01:43 AM Reply #17 »
Pt Macq R2 1200m Mdnf&m $10k
Looks a very weak race for the class, Kraal is drawn wide but does look the class runner on exposed form from last prep inc 1st up 3rd at Canterbury and also close up 3rd at Wyong, has the tactical speed to cross early and be on pace without having to work too hard under the pace scenario, need 3.00+ for value.

Pt Macq R3 1500m Mdn $10k
Potentially a very good value betting race with enough depth in the prepost prices to back the top 2 chances here for a result across the race, Magali is the top elect and drawn well for a soft on pace trip, ran 2nd to Chula Vista in town last prep, this best chance to break maiden so far, the other one at potentially big odds worth specking on its trial form is the Kris Lees trained Beraxio, only other outside chance is Katellie, lay any runner outside the top 3 picks under the odds of 10/1.

Pt Macq R4 1000m c1 $10k
Very hard to go past the chances of Calendar Lass here, has abundant early speed and will try to make all on the front end, impressive wide margin trial winner in prep for return over types that would easily account for this class of race, looks a minimum 1 level above its closest rated foes, one of the biggest certainties of the day if not the biggest, next best 1,2, anything better than 2.50 is good value, lay any other runner under 10/1 with confidence.

Pt Macq R5 0-65hcp $10k
Potential good value betting race. Caiseal gets in well weighted on the minimum and is looking for this trip 4th up now, totally forget last start, 1st and 2nd up efforts put it in this up to its ears, looks a level above its foes despite not winning since July 09, this weakest field it has taken on since then, No's 1,3,9 (not in order) next best, lay any other runner under 10/1 outside the top 4 elects.

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« 2010-Nov-30, 04:04 PM Reply #18 »
Ballarat R1
Open kind of affair with plenty of depth in the form, playing the value angle and going with the Kavanagh 1st starter O'Boy who is by Oratorio out of an O'Reilly mare, carries the successful Danehill / Last Tycoon nick, next best are 5,4,10,11, lay any other runner under 10/1.

Ballarat R2
Very open affair with most form unexposed, decided to lean towards the Dubawi filly Lizawi on top here, well drawn from the 2 alley for the astute Ellerton yard on the back of a good trial win at Werribee in prep for debut, no major confidence, plenty of other chances engaged.

Ballarat R3
This race is devoid of any early speed suggesting those on pace will have a big advantage, leaning is towards the Hickmott trained Zabeel gelding Downes, 1st up but has raced well from an on pace position previously and 1st up on debut 2 preps ago looked well above average when 2nd to Zapurb over 1300m at Bendigo, on a repeat wins this, next best 4,3,6, lay any other runner under 10/1.

Ballarat R4
Likely good value 2 horse war, pace scenario is critical, likely to be slowly run with those on pace and soft having a big advantage, Michael Walker booked for Dubawi 3yo filly Janamaz is a bog bonus, hoop has a knack of reading pace very well, will be hard to run down here, blinkers go back on, the other one that can be backed for a result across the race is Wild Goose, another soft on pacer who looked good on debut 3 back at Sandown, big scope for more, back both for a result across the race, 2 units Janamz and 1 unit Wild Goose. Other chances in order are 6,9,13,7,10, lay any other runner under 10/1

Ballarat R5
Very good quality betting affair and Divine Choice the 3yo filly by Rock Of Gibraltar looks overly well placed here in on the minimum, always a minor concern backing 3yo's vs older horses this time of year but is an early October foal so should handle it now, likely for a perfect trip stalking a hot speed with one of the runs of the race, interesting that Hayes ships to Vic on the back of 2 below par runs in Adelaide, last prep looked very good when a close up 2nd to Shiny And New holding sway over Cristallo 3rd with a big margin to 4th, on a repeat looks well above these, next best 9,6. Lay any other runner under 10/1.

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« 2010-Nov-30, 08:43 PM Reply #19 »
Ballarat R6
Hard to go past the chances of the speedily bred Elly's Spirit here, drawn perfectly from the 1 gate to find the front early without having to work too hard early, winner last start over 1112m at Geelong, big margin 2nd to 3rd adds depth, 4th up last prep nosed out for $50K at moonee Valley over 1200m, on a repeat simply win here, as a minimum 1 class level above its foes, should be winning, anything better than 2.65 is good value. Next best in order are 7,9,8, lay any other runner under 10/1.

Ballarat R7
Fairly keen on the chances of the NZ bred Montjeu 5yo Montgomery here, comes into this 1st up from a spell with Oliver booked and drawn well from the 2 alley, bred to be better over further but has a fair bit of upside and is well weighted compared to its major foes, next best no3 Vitreous, on the next line is 2,6,1,7. Lay any other runner under 10/1, great value Exotic race.

Canterbury R1
Leaning towards the Snowden trained Commands 3yo Rampart here, finished 1l 2nd in a trial at Warwick Farm in prep for return to the highly credentialled Squamosa with a good margin to 3rd, typical Snowden trial formula says it has big scope for further improvement 1st up as his horses rarely get hard trials, if that is the case it rates well above hte level required to win here, likely for a near perfect trip tracking a solid tempo, important to say this is a strong race for the class but on that trial effort this one is the hardest to beat, need 4.30+ for value, next best are 2,4,7,8, lay any other runners under 10/1.

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« 2010-Nov-30, 10:06 PM Reply #20 »
good to see you back posting rc  emthup

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« 2010-Nov-30, 11:29 PM Reply #21 »
Canterbury R2
Overly strong race for the class, hard to go past the chances of the well bred Exceed And Excel filly Rebal Exceed, undefeated 2 career starts vs weaker on paper, but hot trial form prior 2nd to Solar Charged and close up 3rd to Malbun add to confidence to suggest this one has fairly big scope to improve further since it 2 wins vs weaker last prep, drawn wide but has very good early speed, should lead on its ear, in on the minimum will prove hard to run down. Next best 2 then 3,4,5,6 all on the next line. Good quinella play top 2.

Canterbury R4
Shapes as a fairly strong race for the class, we have elected to go with the Niello 4yo Mariusz here who is 3rd up from a spell likely for a soft trip on the front end with only 52kg on its back drawn down in the 2 alley should get there quickly and not have to work to take up a position, firget last start fialure, merely adds value, impressive maiden win last prep then only btn 1.7l in strong $70K company behind Oopsy Doopsy, Brayroan very close next best but Mariusz is the value edge and ticks slightly more boxes, next best in order after top 2 is 9,2,5, lay any other runner under 10/1

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« 2010-Dec-01, 12:12 AM Reply #22 »
Port Lincoln R1
Shapes as a classic race in 2 between Finniss Latte and Happy Pink, leaning towards Finniss Latte on top slighty, drops to lowest level here on the back of 2 very good placing against clearly stronger last prep, has to give weight to Happy Pink but it is at set weights so no major concern, they have it between them, lay any other runner under 10/1, Finniss Latte good value at 3.00+

Port Lincoln R2
Very good value 2 horse war looms here, backing both Vekasha (top elect) and Outsourced (value elect) for a result across the race here, actually on top slightly we have Outsourced and Vekasha looks close up next best and that suggests how much value there is about Outsourced here, very good trial 2nd to Hands Of Stone suggests is well above the level required to win a race of this nature, deceivingly good against stronger 2 preps ago, Vekasha drops a decent amount in class on the back of a very good 3rd at Morphettville 2 back over 1400m, good margin 3rd to 4th that day adds depth, likely run of the race here, these 2 look to have it between them at very good value, outlay 3 units Vekasha and 2 units Outsourced, No10 3rd best, lay any other runner under 10/1. Great value quinella race in top 3.

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« 2010-Dec-01, 02:11 AM Reply #23 »
Port Lincoln R3
Only 3 real seen chances with clear leaning towards Achenar here, drawn well with good initial early speed to try and make all, major foes Tooachook drawn wider and has beaten it before  by 0.2l 1st to 2nd but Achenar was less experienced then and has imprved significantly winning two on end soon after, only has to carry 1.5kg more than Tookachook, other seen hope for 3rd is Fire' Em Up, lay any other runner under 10/1 outside top 3, need 3.10+ for value, likely to be clearly above that price, more likely around 4.00 or better, good confidence quinella bet for top 3 also.

Doomben R3
Likely good value betting affair, on top we have potentially one at good odds in the form of Ready To Launch, failed only race start but very good trial form in prep for return here, 2.5l trial winner ta the Gold Coast recently over some well bred types that had not previously trialled, time good, likely fairly easy on pace trip and gets blinkers 1st time, close up next best is Noble Storm but it is the likely favorite, beter value with Ready To Launch, next best outside top 2 are 4,3, lay any other runner under 10/1.

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« 2010-Dec-02, 04:48 PM Reply #24 »
Pakenham R8
3 realistic chances here on exposed form but two of those are drawn fairly wide and may cut each other up whilst the 3rd of them Wild Native will stalk with one of the runs of the race so leaning towards Wild Native on top here, gets in superbly weighted with only 53kg on the back of a wide margin 6l win at the picnics 2 starts ago, 2nd and 3rd both won start prior or after adding good depth, also very good 5 back when close up 2nd to Preventable with a big margin to 3rd, on a repeat of either of those 2 runs will prove hard to hold out in deep stretch here, next best are no's 2,1, good value quinella play including those 3 runhners.

Pakenham R7
Difficult to have any major confidence in this race, mixed form refs right through field, the one that makes the most appeal is Rhiannon's Joy on its effort 2 back when 2nd at Sale over 2200m, last prep won 1st up at Bendigo over 1600m in a decent quality maiden then ran close 5th to Coulis at Listed level in Tasmania 2nd up, started to show signs of that form level 2 back when 2nd, need 6.50+ for value, likely double figure odds will be bet which means good value, next best are 9,3,6,10,2,4.

Pakenham R6
Potentially a good confidence strong value 2 horse war scenario here, enough depth in the prices to back both the main elects for a result across the race, Summarise ships back down from Syndey, very good form 2 preps ago this area breaking its maiden at Kyneton 2nd up then next start franked that at Ballarat 2nd vs very similar to what it faces here, drawn well for one of the runs of the race, the major elect, one that may surprise at odds and has to be included is Duke House, failed 1st up, merely adds value, won 2 on end last prep over this trip, both wns suggest well up to this, lightly race suggesting scope for further improvement, every chance it could surprise at odds, Bet Ration 2:1 Summarise to Duke House, next best 2/1,6,7/15 on the 3 following levels. Can confidently lay any other runner under 10/1, potential good value Trfiecta race.

Pakenham R5
Shapes as a race with 2 seen major chances from our perspective, one has to battle a fast pace (Marmalade Diamond) and the other gets the likely run of the race (Raikonnen), so it obviously Raikonnen we lean towards on top here, deceivingly well bred by Mull Of Kintyre, below par a few offorts last prep but 2nd up looked very good as it did 1st and 2nd up prep prior, if it finds that level it will win here, overly weak race for the class,, need 4.50+ for value.


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