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Racehorse TALK



Rad's Ramblings - Blogs - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Rad's Ramblings  (Read 50948 times)

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Offline Rad

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O.P. « 2010-Dec-27, 11:32 AM »
I like the idea of the Member's Blog. I don't know where it will take me, but I thought I'd start one up. Feel free to comment!!



« Last Edit: 2012-Nov-17, 10:39 AM by Rad »

Offline gratlog

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« 2010-Dec-27, 11:42 AM Reply #1 »
Yes Rad, I like the idea.

I can ramble on all i like on mine and if anyone is silly enough to read it that is their problem.  :biggrin:

Looking forward to reading your blog.

Offline Rad

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« 2010-Dec-27, 11:45 AM Reply #2 »
Stony Creek races are on tomorrow and I have the chance to offer some double passes to any local, visitor from Melbourne or holidaymaker who wants to go. I'm going on air on the local South Gippsland station at 2pm today and will be asking some racing questions with the first correct answer winning the passes. 3 passes are available and 3 pretty simple questions will be asked during the hour between 2pm and 3pm.

If you are interested listen to one of these frequencies: 88.1 (Central South Gippsland ... Leongatha, Wonthaggi, Korumburra, Inverloch, etc.), 89.1 (Phillip Island, San Remo, Bass, Grantville, Pakenham, Cranbourne, etc.) and 89.5 (Wilsons Prom, Foster, Yarram, etc.). Depending on the climatic conditions, the eastern suburbs of Melbourne can pick up the station OK. There is a guy in the Dandenongs who is a regular listener.

You can listen via the internet at 3mfm.com.au and follow the prompts.

I'll be playing a little bit of music and might do a little more ... a lost dog announcement or two .. lol. Maybe some racing tips!! Listen in if you want!! I'm certainly no pro ..

Offline Rad

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« 2010-Dec-27, 11:47 AM Reply #3 »
Ta Greg .. wishing you a few winners!!

Offline dubbledee

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« 2010-Dec-27, 12:01 PM Reply #4 »
Welcome to the blog bog, Rad.

Wondering how you went on place betting?


The majority of punters' statistics that I have seen show better POT on Win betting rather than Place betting. So the majority of punters are better off sticking to win only punting. I always have found it this way, but have still tinkered with EW betting.

But there are other factors and key among them include:

* your risk averseness

* the size of your punting bank, combined with your winning bet percentage and average winning bet odds

* there always seem to be new betting offerings (eg Best Of Best). Getting the right odds can be the difference between long term success and failure

I have historically had most success with horses in the 'favourites' range, normally from about $2.50 (6/4) to about $4.50 (7/2). When betting seriously, I can generally achieve a strike rate at about 38% and an average dividend of about $3.25 .... sometimes better, sometimes worse. I don't get long runs of outs by concentrating in this range. So, standard betting means win only probably makes sense and I am in a 'comfort zone' by not threatening the 'bank'. When I have checked in the past, I would achieve significantly worse profits for the theoretical place portion versus the win bets.

My problems / discussion points a

- what do I do with the occasional longer odds selection that I want to back? Staking is the main issue. Should I have a similar size bet on the roughie? Should I set up a separate spreadsheet (or two) and bet differently on the longer odds selections? ( eg 3 sheets: < $4.50, $4.60 - $9.00, > $9.10 ) Should I simply back each horse to collect a nominated amount?

- do I need to review how I look at the place portion? As DD pointed out, you don't have to simply take 'home tote' for the place portion of the bet these days. There is Betfair, there are fixed place odds with people like CentreBet and Tabcorp, these are Best Place Tote bets available ... would these be enough to increase the profits on the place bets so that they have a stronger positive argument in their favour? Rather than a win only bet, should I go each way at >$4.60 up to $9.00 and place only at >$9.10?

- my financial situation has changed and, hence, my risk averseness / fear of failure / need to win has all increased. I now have no other income other than gambling .. and really can't afford to lose.

- I find successful gambling takes time .. and lots of it ... for me to win, I just have to spend the required time at the form study or I slip into losses. It means that I have to have breaks from punting to 'freshen' up occasionally and also have to take time off when my other 'non-punting' life needs attention. Sometimes I just drift and lose discipline .. and this always costs!! I have never made long term profits from the exotics and this just isn't logical.  :chin:

However, the fact remains when I am working at backing fully analysed selections for the win, my numbers are always OK ... somewhere near the 38%/$3.25 div range.

I think it is time to have a review of things and maybe update / fine tune my methods ... and getting into it again properly. Thanks for raising the issue, DD, and thanks also to other contributors for their posts. I might try a bit of place betting  :chin: ... by the way, I agree with the points made about place betting regularly applying to different types of selections. But I might just go back to what I have always done best ...

Offline Rad

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« 2010-Dec-27, 02:25 PM Reply #5 »
Thanks for tracking that post down, DD.

Overall, I'm still pretty much in that space where my standard bets are generally on favoured horses where I think I'm getting better odds than I should.

For other bets, I am betting EW and betting more for the place than the win on occasions. If you think a thing is a $6 chance and you can get something near that for the place, I'm happy to bet each way. There are sometimes horses which look perfectly suited in a race, but they may have poor strike rates for example ... I reckon that they'll be competitive and in the money but may not be 'value' as a win only bet. In this case I might go 1 unit the win and 3, 4 or 5 units the place.

I'm not one to make fixed rules because racing is a game of grey areas. Betting prescribed amounts doesn't make sense to me when a 'systematic' approach may mean that you have similar amounts on 'good' chance selections as on 'birds'. So, I'm going to retain 'poetic' licence and maintain lots of flexibility.

I've been back betting seriously for a few weeks now and had a sensational time of it. But it is really toe in the water stuff. My plan is to start up again full bore from New Year's Day ... I'll see how things go then. I have to say that I am feeling fresh and supremely confident ... does pride cometh before a fall???

I'll let you know how I go.

Offline Rad

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« 2010-Dec-27, 05:04 PM Reply #6 »
Stony Creek races are on tomorrow and I have the chance to offer some double passes to any local, visitor from Melbourne or holidaymaker who wants to go. I'm going on air on the local South Gippsland station at 2pm today and will be asking some racing questions with the first correct answer winning the passes. 3 passes are available and 3 pretty simple questions will be asked during the hour between 2pm and 3pm.

If you are interested listen to one of these frequencies: 88.1 (Central South Gippsland ... Leongatha, Wonthaggi, Korumburra, Inverloch, etc.), 89.1 (Phillip Island, San Remo, Bass, Grantville, Pakenham, Cranbourne, etc.) and 89.5 (Wilsons Prom, Foster, Yarram, etc.). Depending on the climatic conditions, the eastern suburbs of Melbourne can pick up the station OK. There is a guy in the Dandenongs who is a regular listener.

You can listen via the internet at 3mfm.com.au and follow the prompts.

I'll be playing a little bit of music and might do a little more ... a lost dog announcement or two .. lol. Maybe some racing tips!! Listen in if you want!! I'm certainly no pro ..

It's always a refief when people ring in to answer the questions and get the prizes!! You wonder whether anyone is listening  :/
We don't get ratings data like the city stations .. this might be a good thing!!  :biggrin:

Offline dubbledee

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« 2010-Dec-27, 05:14 PM Reply #7 »
Thanks for tracking that post down, DD.

Overall, I'm still pretty much in that space where my standard bets are generally on favoured horses where I think I'm getting better odds than I should.

For other bets, I am betting EW and betting more for the place than the win on occasions. If you think a thing is a $6 chance and you can get something near that for the place, I'm happy to bet each way. There are sometimes horses which look perfectly suited in a race, but they may have poor strike rates for example ... I reckon that they'll be competitive and in the money but may not be 'value' as a win only bet. In this case I might go 1 unit the win and 3, 4 or 5 units the place.

I'm not one to make fixed rules because racing is a game of grey areas. Betting prescribed amounts doesn't make sense to me when a 'systematic' approach may mean that you have similar amounts on 'good' chance selections as on 'birds'. So, I'm going to retain 'poetic' licence and maintain lots of flexibility.

I've been back betting seriously for a few weeks now and had a sensational time of it. But it is really toe in the water stuff. My plan is to start up again full bore from New Year's Day ... I'll see how things go then. I have to say that I am feeling fresh and supremely confident ... does pride cometh before a fall???

I'll let you know how I go.
Was it Pittsburgh Phil who suggested we "pick for win, bet for place"?  I'm firm in my belief that he's right on the mark.  Reason being, these days with the fixed markets and Betfair, I believe we can get TRUE place odds.  We didn't when we had to bet EW, particularly on longer-priced horses in large fields.  We have to cop the fact that many of our successful place bets will WIN, but that's all fine.  The big plus is that when our main selection is unlucky and runs the drum - when it should have won - we still get the choccies.  Of course, there'll be some of our place bets that are unlucky and run 4th  :rant: when they should have run the drum.  But they were losers had we been betting WIN, as well.

I've no doubt wenona will have a view on this.  :rolleyes:

Offline Rad

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« 2010-Dec-28, 06:11 PM Reply #8 »
If you enjoy music like Creedence, The Eagles, Bon Jovi, LRB, Dire Straits and so on, listen in to 3mfm.com.au now. I'm playing some great music until 10pm tonight .. gotta be better than TV!!!

Offline westie

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« 2010-Dec-28, 07:50 PM Reply #9 »
Rad
No advertisments that's nice.

Offline Rad

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« 2010-Dec-28, 07:55 PM Reply #10 »
Rad
No advertisments that's nice.

Solid music during the evening when I'm on, mate ... no mucking around. I have to play the ads on 'day shift' though. Thanks for listening .. got a request??

Offline westie

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« 2010-Dec-28, 08:00 PM Reply #11 »
.. got a request??
You bet - Bad Moon Rising

Offline Rad

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« 2010-Dec-28, 08:04 PM Reply #12 »
You bet - Bad Moon Rising

No worries .. its on at 9:08!!! Well nearly .. I'll introduce it and that'll take a few seconds ...

Offline dubbledee

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« 2010-Dec-28, 08:05 PM Reply #13 »
Chris Rea...preferrably Windy Town.

Mono's a big fan, too.

Offline Rad

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« 2010-Dec-28, 08:06 PM Reply #14 »
Chris Rea...preferrably Windy Town.

Mono's a big fan, too.


If I can pronounce it, I'll play it ... it's Ray-a, isn't it??

Offline dubbledee

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« 2010-Dec-28, 08:08 PM Reply #15 »
Pronounced same as REAR. :rolleyes:

Offline westie

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« 2010-Dec-28, 08:09 PM Reply #16 »
Well Done  8-)

Offline Rad

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« 2010-Dec-28, 08:10 PM Reply #17 »
Thanks. We don't have Windy Town. Would 'Fool If You Think It's Over' do?

Offline dubbledee

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« 2010-Dec-28, 08:11 PM Reply #18 »
Yes, would be my 2nd fav.  :clap2:

Offline Rad

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« 2010-Dec-28, 08:12 PM Reply #19 »
Cool .. it's next!!

Offline dubbledee

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« 2010-Dec-28, 08:20 PM Reply #20 »
Well done, mate.  Didn't get the chance to see CR in concert.  Last I heard he had serious health problems. :sad:

If ya need to go outside for a break, Rad, you can always stick on Gordon Lightfoot's Wreck OTEF - or anything of his.  emthup

Offline Rad

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« 2010-Dec-28, 08:23 PM Reply #21 »
Well done, mate.  Didn't get the chance to see CR in concert.  Last I heard he had serious health problems. :sad:

If ya need to go outside for a break, Rad, you can always stick on Gordon Lightfoot's Wreck OTEF - or anything of his.  emthup


I've lined up another couple of Clapton songs, then a couple of Gordon Lightfoot's ... it's a good thing you and Westie have good taste   :biggrin: !!!

Offline dubbledee

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« 2010-Dec-28, 08:25 PM Reply #22 »
I bet I had it first, though.   :lol:

My first 45 rpm was gonna be Peggy Sue...but my stupid brother bought Peggy Lee's Fever instead. :rant:

Offline Rad

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« 2010-Dec-28, 08:27 PM Reply #23 »
I bet I had it first, though.   :lol:

My first 45 rpm was gonna be Peggy Sue...but my stupid brother bought Peggy Lee's Fever instead. :rant:


Lol ... next week I'll be breaking out the Jukebox for the last hour or so of the show and playing all 50s and 60s rock songs .. the punters down here love it!!

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2010-Dec-28, 08:30 PM Reply #24 »
What about something from Bob's John Wesley Harding ?

"I'll Be Your Baby Tonight"


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