Racehorse TALK

Thoroughbred Racing Talk => N.S.W Gallops => Topic started by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-10, 03:55 AM

Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-10, 03:55 AM
Race 7 - 4:15PM THE EVEREST (1200 METRES)

Of $13,000,000.1st $6,000,000, 2nd $2,100,000, 3rd $1,200,000, 4th $820,000, 5th $600,000, 6th $350,000, 7th $300,000, 8th $300,000, 9th $300,000, 10th $300,000, 11th $300,000, 12th $300,000, Jockey Welfare Fund $130,000. SPECIAL CONDITION

Standard Weight for Age, Apprentices cannot claim.


No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Penalty Hcp Rating
1 11x2124x15 REDZEL Peter & Paul Snowden Kerrin McEvoy 1 58.5kg
118
2 x6x0311x51 SANTA ANA LANE Anthony Freedman Ben Melham 9 58.5kg
116
3 x74232x172 LE ROMAIN Kris Lees Glyn Schofield 11 58.5kg
115
4 0x14311x34 TRAPEZE ARTIST Gerald Ryan Tye Angland 6 58.5kg
115
5 11257x8x14 VEGA MAGIC Hayes, Hayes & Dabernig Damien Oliver 7 58.5kg
115
6 531270x332 BRAVE SMASH (JPN) Darren Weir Hugh Bowman 4 58.5kg
112
7 1x1230x214 HOME OF THE BRAVE (IRE) SCRATCHED
0 58.5kg
111
8 110x45291x U S NAVY FLAG (USA) Aidan O'Brien Ryan Moore 3 58kg
117
9 x112x139x3 IN HER TIME Kris Lees Corey Brown 8 56.5kg
114
10 21x81x1x32 SHOALS Anthony Freedman Tim Clark 2 56.5kg
114
11 x2411x20x1 VIDDORA Lloyd Kennewell Joe Bowditch 12 56.5kg
114
12 11x123 GRAFF Kris Lees Brenton Avdulla 10 53kg
94
13e 3x385x666x CLEARLY INNOCENT Kris Lees
0 58.5kg
109
14e 272123x015 DOTHRAKI Peter & Paul Snowden
0 58.5kg
108
15e 81243697 JUNGLE EDGE Mick Bell
0 58.5kg
108
16e 121122x129 PIERATA Gregory Hickman
0 58.5kg
108
17e 1x13121x15 OSBORNE BULLS James Cummings Tommy Berry 5 58.5kg
106
18e 0x108661x3 SPRIGHT Garry Frazer
0 56.5kg
106
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-10, 09:30 AM
Looks like being a bog track unfortunately. Who’s thes best 1400m mudder?
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-10, 10:09 AM
Looks like being a bog track unfortunately. Who’s thes best 1400m mudder?

Probably the bolter Le Romain!!

Real driving rain in a strong wind here this morning. Will change the complexity of the race.

US Navy Flag is 4:3-0-1 on Slow and one unplaced run on the Heavy.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-10, 10:23 AM
Most have run good races on the wet. It was always a no bet for me and now getting harder
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Oct-10, 11:34 AM
With the rail being shifted from the last meeting will the inside be better than expected as it is supposed to be fresh.

It is expected to be heavy and unsure how heavy or chopped up the track will be.

On Epsom Day, the wind was a big factor with many leaders carving up.

Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-10, 11:39 AM


Confined to platitudes, this thread is of little interest.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-10, 11:47 AM
No surprise that you find horse racing of no interest
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: pegasyber on 2018-Oct-11, 08:15 AM
Quote
VF140817 RW81410F * RACE NAME ID* [ RW81410F  2017. THE EVEREST,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1200 mtrs]. COMPRUN 10-13-2017. AT 07:09:59 RESULT  [    3  2  8  1   ~    12   9    ]

VF140817 RW81410F * LOW LRAC WDIV [  8  11  2  3  1  6  ] [  8 BRAVE SMAS.  ---  ].[ 11 HOUTZEN W%.  ---  ].[ 2 VEGA MAGIC.  ---  ].[ 3 REDZEL W% .  ---  ].[ 1 CHAUTAUQUA.  ---  ].[ 6 DEPLOY W% .  ---  ].[ ] F4 & 5LOW WDIV E/W BET *

  The field marked in BLUE above can be extracted from the daily newspaper or the downloadable Form Guide, consisting of just one piece of data for each horse in their last race and without a computer, the selected numbers can be derived.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: tontonan on 2018-Oct-11, 03:32 PM
And still no one wants to talk about the damn race... expect Peg's computer, and it thinks its last year.
Go Chautauqua.
  :lol:
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-11, 03:42 PM
Everest 8 posts (9 now)

Caulfield Guineas and Thousand Guineas less than that.

Kosciusko - 24 posts   emthup  
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: pegasyber on 2018-Oct-11, 04:01 PM
   Thanks Tontonon but that is what the computer thought at 7.09 am on the Friday 13 October 2017 before the race. 

  Anyone who used that very simple seive on just about every  Group race in the last couple of weeks would have gained enough profitable bets to take them through the year.
  It is mainly directed towards  P.M's great unwashed, who  he believes do not have the time nor the intellect to either  Read The Form  or to  learn how to program a computer.  This method only requires a pencil and paper plus a few minutes of their time even with a beer in their mits.
  As well  it  previously selected, amongst many others,  a 100/1  M. Cup winner and a 100/1 Oaks winner.  So it is not biased to just selecting the public  favourite. 
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-11, 04:04 PM
   Thanks Tontonon but that is what the computer thought at 7.09 am on the Friday 13 October 2017 before the race. 

  Anyone who used that very simple seive on just about every  Group race in the last couple of weeks would have gained enough profitable bets to take them through the year.
  It is mainly directed towards  P.M's great unwashed, who  he believes do not have the time nor the intellect to either  Read The Form  or to  learn how to program a computer.  This method only requires a pencil and paper plus a few minutes of their time even with a beer in their mits.
  As well  it  previously selected, amongst many others,  a 100/1  M. Cup winner and a 100/1 Oaks winner.  So it is not biased to just selecting the public  favourite.

Thought it was obvious that you were posting last year's result peg.

Looking forward to this year's numbers if you would permit us to have a look   emthup
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-11, 05:10 PM
Yes, look foreword to it peg  :thumbsup:
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Oct-11, 10:22 PM
Everest 8 posts (9 now)

Caulfield Guineas and Thousand Guineas less than that.

Kosciusko - 24 posts    emthup  

I will bet you the MC will have more posts than this topic although the OH controversy will surpass the MC discussions so technically the Everest topics will have more posts when added together.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Gintara on 2018-Oct-11, 10:54 PM
Well my halo shot at the getting the 10 in finishing order for the TAB' $10mill comp is this -

1 - Brave Smash - I've liked the prep, blinkers on   emthup
2 - Redzel - he'll kick I'm just not sure he can hold them off after the set back
3 - Vega Magic - shades on, didn't like him getting run down last start although 1400m
4 -Shoals
5 - Santa Ana Lane
6 - US Navy Flag
7 - Osborne Bulls - keeps improving
8 - Trapeze Artist - haven't liked the prep
9 - Viddora - Class?
10 - In Her Time
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-11, 11:21 PM
I will bet you the MC will have more posts than this topic although the OH controversy will surpass the MC discussions so technically the Everest topics will have more posts when added together.

Mate I wouldn't be so sure. The Melbourne Cup thread last year was very bare. A lot of people have moved on from this type of social media to Facebook, Twitter, etc. We are dinosaurs. Sadly this is the way the world is going.

This type of forum has been supplanted by the Comments section on digital newspapers. I have a subscription to The Australian and on important topics they get a thousand comments and you can tell it is the same sort of people who post here that are now over there.

The Australian appears to have removed comments from Everest stories as they often do when they detect social media "slamming".
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-11, 11:34 PM
Well my halo shot at the getting the 10 in finishing order for the TAB' $10mill comp is this -

1 - Brave Smash - I've liked the prep, blinkers on   emthup
2 - Redzel - he'll kick I'm just not sure he can hold them off after the set back
3 - Vega Magic - shades on, didn't like him getting run down last start although 1400m
4 -Shoals
5 - Santa Ana Lane
6 - US Navy Flag
7 - Osborne Bulls - keeps improving
8 - Trapeze Artist - haven't liked the prep
9 - Viddora - Class?
10 - In Her Time

I'm going to take a calculated risk and state that Redzel is not at the same place he was this time last year.

Agree with your comments on Trapeze Artist as well.

The other two placegetters from last year appear to be in fine form and given they have been placed over the track and distance you'd have to include them - Brave Smash and Vega Magic.

I am putting US Navy Flag in because I think our sprinting ranks are not the same as they were when Black Caviar, Takeover Target, Apache Cat, Miss Andretti, etc. were running around. The July Cup might just be the form race here.

Santa Ana Lane is a horse I have a lot of time for and he did win over the course and distance. And if you like him then you must concede Shoals and In Her Time as live chances.

So I'll go:

1 US Navy Flag
2 Santa Ana Lane
3 Shoals
4 In Her Time
5 Brave Smash
6 Vega Magic
7 Le Romain
8 Graff
9 Viddora
10 Trapeze Artist

Now to check out the wet track form as it is raining now and predicted to do so for the next 7 days - hopefully the long drought has been broken.

Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Gintara on 2018-Oct-12, 08:22 AM
I agree PP with the comments on Redzel, I'm just banking on the Snowden's working their magic over the last couple of weeks.

It's a fun exercise as you start putting them in but then have to shuffle as you have the 'well hat should beat that' or 'It's not going as well as that' type of thoughts.

Be nice if one of us jag it   :lol:
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-12, 09:31 AM
I can’t pick it. Had ten goes at picking the top ten and keep changing it  :lol:

However
11. Graff
12. US Navy Flag
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Gintara on 2018-Oct-12, 11:58 AM
I used to have a bit of success on the old Superfecta races on the dogs like that Wily.

Stand out who I thought would win, leave out who I thought would run 7th & 8th and box the rest.  :chin:
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: pegasyber on 2018-Oct-12, 01:15 PM
  ** Due to the weather I am pretty sure it will be best to just watch this one.

VF140817 RW71310F * RACE NAME ID* [ RW71310F  2018. THE EVEREST,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1200 mtrs]. COMPRUN 10-12-2018. AT 06:55:39 RESULT  [   1   4   17    3   ~   12   2    ] F4 $9,993.80.

VF140817 RW71310F * LOW LRAC WDIV [  5  12  1  4  9  ] [  5 VEGA MAGIC.  ---  ].[ 12 GRAFF W% 6.  ---  ].[ 1 REDZEL W% .  ---  ].[ 4 TRAPEZE AR.  ---  ].[ 9 IN HER TIM.  ---  ].[ ] F4 & 5LOW WDIV E/W BET *
VF140817 RW71310F * LOW5 LRAC SP$  [  5 VEGA MAGIC.  ---  ].[ 12 GRAFF W% 6.  ---  ].[ 1 REDZEL W% .  ---  ].[ 4 TRAPEZE AR.  ---  ].[ 9 IN HER TIM.  ---  ].[]. HORSE NAMES
VF140817 RW71310F * DTL DD WC TKDS[ 42ds -200 -.5kg CF14  ].[ 21ds -200 -3.5kg RH14  ].[ 14ds  0  0kg RW10  ].[ 14ds  0  0kg RW14  ].[ 14ds  0  0kg RW12  ].[  CHECK FULLY.
VF140817 RW71310F * ACTION INDICN [  [ #5  *!MUST KEEP!*b]. [ #12  *!MUST KEEP!*]. [ #1  *!MUST KEEP!*b]. [ #4  *!MUST KEEP!*b]. [ #9  *!MUST KEEP!*b]. ] * DROP THE WORST *

  *  The Pencil and Paper Analysis  [   5   12   1   4   9   ]   If a roughie gets up it is not unusual that it is one of these.

  Here is the problem, On a Speed Basis; there are nine horses within 3.0 lengths of the Top Rated  # 16; and so anyone of these could win :

VF140817 RW71310F * SPD ORD TABNO [   16    2    4   10    9    1    6    3   18   17   13   11   12    5   15   14    8   ] T5 HI HIT. USE SPD UPTO 1450m
VF140817 RW71310F * SPD RATNG ORD [  999  998  998  998  997  990  988  976  970  966  953  952  933  928  907  890  881  ] /1. IN SPEED ORDER
VF140817 RW71310F * AT TRK n DIST SPD [ RW14 RW12 RW14 RW12 RW12 RW10 RW11 RW12 DB12 CF14 RW13 MP11 RH14 CF14 MV10 FL12 AV12  ] IN SPD ORD*
VF140817 RW71310F * RQOD SPD RORD [  12   12   12   12   12   12.7   13.1   17.4  20.6  22.8  34.1  35.2  79.3  101.7  250.2  433.7  651  ] $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS IN RATING ORDER *
VF140817 RW71310F * AVAL ODDS FIXD[                                                                                                    ] MANUALLY KEY IN FIXED PRICES SPEED RATING ORDER

  * While on a SPEED WEight Modified Basis there are  eight horses within 3.0 lenghts of the top rated # 1
 
VF140817 RW71310F * WMSPD ORD TNO [     1      2     10     16      9      3      4      6    12     18     13     11     17      5     15     14      8     ]  * ] BMVRS/W [  ]*SPL*
VF140817 RW71310F * WMSPD RTG ORD [  1003   998   998   998   997   996   985   984   960   960   956   952   940   931   907   883   875   ] IMPORTANT
VF140817 RW71310F * RQOD WMSPD RO [  11.8   11.8   11.8   11.8   11.8   11.9   14.4   14.7   26.8   26.8   30.9   34.6   54.2   79.8   222.1   426.6   640.5   ] IN WMSPD ORDER. $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS ON WT MO

  ** Due to the probable state of the Track it will be a  Boat Race, with all contestants looking to get home safely,  so it is not then unusual for the Top" Simulated Modified Pace" horses to feature     

VF140817 RW71310F * SIMUL PACE T6 [  2 ]  10 ]  9 ]  4 ]  1 ]  16 ] ] *Pace line Important * LOOK !! T6 CAN HAVE $F4 IN. VERY IMPORTANT IF TRK HEAVY !!*

VF140817 RW71310F * SIMUL PACE ALL[    2   10    9    4    1   16  17    6   11   12    5   18    3   15   14    8   13   ] *BPT4 [  17 OSBORN x6 ] *BMVRP [ 4 TRAPEZ x3 [  11 VIDDOR x3 ] REL/SPWM. ESP F  1000-1200 USEFUL IN DIST/SOFT(6&UP/DEAD/SLOW/SAND esp. A TOP4 Ln*
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-12, 02:36 PM
I used to have a bit of success on the old Superfecta races on the dogs like that Wily.

Stand out who I thought would win, leave out who I thought would run 7th & 8th and box the rest.  :chin:

I did the same  :lol:
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: ianb on 2018-Oct-12, 04:43 PM
For the sake of  racing I would love it if Trapeze Artist could win.

If he can win, maybe we won't have all the best 3 year old sprinting colts retire at the end of their 3 year old year in the future.

My only other comment about the race is surely Graff can't win.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-12, 07:30 PM


Feeling pegged

..................................I cannot find a 'translate' app to know what the pega is saying , ever!
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: pegasyber on 2018-Oct-13, 07:11 AM
  Thanks Peter; so am I.  The message clearly shows one should not bet, when it is wet, at least.

  The computer seems to be obsessed  with  [  1  4  9   5  ]  appearing in every key selection grouping in the analysis of The Everest race; But  due to the Track Condition, I would not bet on it?.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Jeunes on 2018-Oct-13, 07:28 AM
The weather does not look that bad today but showers expected.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Wenona on 2018-Oct-13, 09:08 AM
Well my halo shot at the getting the 10 in finishing order for the TAB' $10mill comp is this -

1 - Brave Smash - I've liked the prep, blinkers on   emthup
2 - Redzel - he'll kick I'm just not sure he can hold them off after the set back
3 - Vega Magic - shades on, didn't like him getting run down last start although 1400m
4 -Shoals
5 - Santa Ana Lane
6 - US Navy Flag
7 - Osborne Bulls - keeps improving
8 - Trapeze Artist - haven't liked the prep
9 - Viddora - Class?
10 - In Her Time

Do you have to turn over the ten million before you can withdraw?   emthup

I went

Order

No. Runner (Barrier)
10. Shoals (2)
2. Santa Ana Lane (9)
3. Le Romain (11)
5. Vega Magic (7)
1. Redzel (1)
8. U S Navy Flag (3)
11. Viddora (12)
6. Brave Smash (4)
4. Trapeze Artist (6)
9. In Her Time (8)
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-13, 10:07 AM
The sun is out shining at the moment with a light breeze.

A few rain clouds around but don't be surprised if the rain stays away they give a track upgrade during the day.

Randwick posted as a Heavy 9 at 7.45 a.m. this morning.

I'm going to watch the early races before finalizing my bets on the latter races.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Shogun Lodge on 2018-Oct-13, 12:50 PM
Shoals the firmer.
Leaning toward the overseas fellow, after watching July cup run.
So strong.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: pegasyber on 2018-Oct-13, 03:22 PM
VF140817 RW71310F * RACE NAME ID* [ RW71310F  2018. THE EVEREST,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1200 mtrs]. COMPRUN 10-12-2018. AT 06:55:39 RESULT  [    1   4   17    3   ~   12   2  ]  F4 $9,933.80.

Quote
  *  The Pencil and Paper Analysis  [   5   12  1   4  9   ]   If a roughie gets up it is not unusual that it is one of these.

VF140817 RW71310F * SIMUL PACE T6 [  2 ]  10 ]  9 ]  4 ]  1 ]  16 ] ] *Pace line Important * LOOK !! T6 CAN HAVE $F4 IN. VERY IMPORTANT IF TRK HEAVY !!*

VF140817 RW71310F * SIMUL PACE ALL[    2   10    9    4    1   16  17    6   11   12    5   18    3   15   14    8   13   ] *BPT4 [  17 OSBORN x6 ] *BMVRP [ 4 TRAPEZ x3 [  11 VIDDOR x3 ] REL/SPWM. ESP F  1000-1200 USEFUL IN DIST/SOFT(6&UP/DEAD/SLOW/SAND esp. A TOP4 Ln*

 
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-14, 07:10 AM


There is no room in racing for refreshing honesty

The trainer may be a champion but the everest race is just too-much-money gone mad.

Redzel surpassed three-time Melbourne Cup heroine Makybe Diva in stakes earnings as a result, pocketing the $6 million first prize purse from Australian racing's newest plaything.

"I can't believe that," Peter Snowden said when made aware of the fact. "I wouldn't rate him above any champion. He is a good horse in his own right. He did it tough today. He led all the way and did it from the front. Hats off to him. I'm so proud of him."


RacingNSW will be arranging counseling for participants to stay 'on message' when talking about the new mountain races.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Bubbasmith on 2018-Oct-14, 07:55 AM
After yesterday's race Sky Channel's Greg Radley came out with " In winning the first two Everests Redzel has done what Archer had done, he won the first two Melbourne Cups'. As  VRC chairman, Amanda Elliott, was quoted as saying " good luck to the ATC and The Everest, let's hope it is around in 158 years".

Radley's attempt to equate Redzel's wins to Archer's first two Cups is a bit over the top. Was he really putting The Everest on the same level as the Melbourne Cup after only two runnings ? Prizemoney does not make a race iconic, I recall when the Perth Cup was the first race in Australia worth $100,000, where is it now and who won the race ?

Redzel is a good horse, but I doubt its name will rattle off the tongue of racing historians in 158 years as Archer does today.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-14, 08:37 AM
Redzel ended up paying over $7 after his poor Premiere run.

Redzel and Trapeze Artist dominated early betting but both drifted and the quinella paid over $30.

Some very disappointing efforts I thought. Not sure if the track had something to do with it.

Reminded me a bit of Capitalist. He had a poor run before he won the Slipper and drifted right out the gate.

Shame about all the spoilers of the race - principally from Victoria. They need to get over it.  The locals were very supportive as was the national press.

In the end they didn't make any difference. It was the rain that probably made a difference although it stayed away for most of the day.

The TAB has listed the first four final pool in NSW as over $2 million  :what:
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: jfc on 2018-Oct-14, 09:21 AM

The TAB has listed the first four final pool in NSW as over $2 million  :what:
Seems like reality still can't seep through to you.

In its insanity Tabcorp stumped up $500,000 of money donated by losing F4 players as a jackpot.

48% of the new money ~$1,000,000 came from the Manx!

All of that Manx money came in after 16:14:44!

So in effect ~$100,000 of free money from Kickbacks was transferred to said Manx.

But anyone like you who likes to be kept in the dark probably thinks this scam is a great success.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-14, 09:34 AM
Seems like reality still can't seep through to you.

In its insanity Tabcorp stumped up $500,000 of money donated by losing F4 players as a jackpot.

48% of the new money ~$1,000,000 came from the Manx!

All of that Manx money came in after 16:14:44!

So in effect ~$100,000 of free money from Kickbacks was transferred to said Manx.

But anyone like you who likes to be kept in the dark probably thinks this scam is a great success.

I thought they made a mistake and as I've said before I don't believe in rebates.

So if TABCorp kicks in $500k, plus the rebate (from TABCorp's cut, not the governments) combined with a computer generated spread of bets covering all the combinations using the horse's price as a guide to it's chances, this equals $100,000 free money?
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: jfc on 2018-Oct-14, 09:43 AM
I backed the Field proportionally.

Hence ~Zero Risk if done correctly.

Much easier to do this for the Manx who plonked $1,000,000 and received ~$100,000 gift from a ~10% Kickback.

I've revealed this a number of times before and can't believe you still need to have this explained.

Such calculations should be seconds nature to anyone trying to gamble responsibly.

Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: fours on 2018-Oct-14, 09:53 AM
Gambling responsibly....,

The adds exhorting this make me laugh.......

jfcs efforts are more akin to investing than gambling whereas the average 'gambler' the adds are designed for have not got a clue what they are doing so can never be said to be gambling responsibly.

Fours
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: jfc on 2018-Oct-14, 10:08 AM
My gambling style could more accurately be described as.

Bet only when you believe the Odds are in your favour. Stake in a manner consistent with the Kelly criterion.

No reason why any other gambler can't do the same.

If they did they would avoid regular Tote Pools and thus stop exporting money to the Manx.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-14, 10:50 AM
I backed the Field proportionally.

Hence ~Zero Risk if done correctly.

Much easier to do this for the Manx who plonked $1,000,000 and received ~$100,000 gift from a ~10% Kickback.

I've revealed this a number of times before and can't believe you still need to have this explained.

Such calculations should be seconds nature to anyone trying to gamble responsibly.

What you have said is exactly what I have said. Is it not?

Can you point out the difference?
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: jfc on 2018-Oct-14, 11:04 AM

So if TABCorp kicks in $500k, plus the rebate (from TABCorp's cut, not the governments) combined with a computer generated spread of bets covering all the combinations using the horse's price as a guide to it's chances, this equals $100,000 free money?
This is full of errors.

The $500,000 is not Tabcorp's money. It's losing F4 punters'.

The government pays the Kickbacks.

It's ~$100,000 free money to just the Manx. Less for me.

The "?" looks like you are disagreeing with me.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-14, 12:18 PM


Much easier to do this for the Manx who plonked $1,000,000 and received ~$100,000 gift from a ~10% Kickback.


Now do you find that info out?
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: jfc on 2018-Oct-14, 12:22 PM
I have information (and contacts) not available to all.

The Manx would have even more.

That's wrong.

That information can easily be made available to all.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: nemisis on 2018-Oct-14, 12:28 PM
The time the money goes on is interesting jfc.

Do you have the means to see the pools changing or is that through info?
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: jfc on 2018-Oct-14, 12:38 PM
Tabcorp pushes Pool updates to me.

I timestamp them.

The Manx money is invisible bar the total. Typically that appears after jump. Whether that is or isn't kosher is not for me to say but it's not a good look.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-14, 12:42 PM
This is full of errors.

The $500,000 is not Tabcorp's money. It's losing F4 punters'.

The government pays the Kickbacks.

It's ~$100,000 free money to just the Manx. Less for me.

The "?" looks like you are disagreeing with me.

This question has been floating around for a while.

Does the government pay the kickbacks? Or does the rebate come from TABCorp's cut?

I found this in the forum archives

http://www.racehorsetalk.com.au/racing-talk/the-tab-pools-and-how-they-work/25/

but it doesn't answer the question.

Peter V'Landys submission to the Oz Competition Tribunal was similarly vague.

The main fees Racing NSW receives through the RDA it has with
TAB Limited are in the form of a product fee based on NSWT AS's wagering revenue and a
wagering incentive fee (WIF), which essentially equates to 25% of the profit of NSWTAB's
wagering business.

Given that the government made TABCorp's 2005 proposal for a national pool conditional upon an indemnity against loss of revenue it is hard to believe that the rebate comes from the NSW Government.

TABCorp would decide who gets the rebates, and the level of the rebate on the fly so that implies that they bear the cost.

Happy to be corrected   :biggrin:

Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: jfc on 2018-Oct-14, 12:46 PM
From memory by law the NSW government allocates something like $130 million (one way or another) in kickbacks.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Gintara on 2018-Oct-14, 03:55 PM
After yesterday's race Sky Channel's Greg Radley came out with " In winning the first two Everests Redzel has done what Archer had done, he the first two Melbourne Cups'. As  VRC chairman, Amanda Elliott, was quoted as saying " good luck to the ATC and The Everest, let's hope it is around in 158 years".

Radley's attempt to equate Redzel's wins to Archer's first two Cups is a bit over the top. Was he really putting The Everest on the same level as the Melbourne Cup after only two runnings ? Prizemoney does not make a race iconic, I recall when the Perth Cup was the first race in Australia worth $100,000, where is it now and who won the race ?

Redzel is a good horse, but I doubt its name will rattle off the tongue of racing historians in 158 years as Archer does today.

Surely it's not that hard to draw the comparison like Radley did? Only a nark would try and decry it and see it for anything other than a horse winning the first two runnings of a significant race.

Then again I'm surprised you've stood up for Archer, being from NSW after all  :p

Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Bubbasmith on 2018-Oct-14, 04:59 PM
Surely it's not that hard to draw the comparison like Radley did? Only a nark would try and decry it and see it for anything other than a horse winning the first two runnings of a significant race.

Then again I'm surprised you've stood up for Archer, being from NSW after all  :p

As Bill Clinton famously said " it's the race, not the horse, stupid"
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Gintara on 2018-Oct-14, 08:29 PM
 ..... and again you miss the point in your charge to denigrate anything NSW  :whistle:
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-14, 10:06 PM


No one does it better than RNSW itself -- bar RVL of course which is in self-destruct mode.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: jfc on 2018-Oct-15, 07:47 AM
Thought I'd check to see how V'landys' boast about turnover stand up in reality.

The rest of you may have problems given Tabcorp's brilliant improvements of limiting results to just 365 days!

Pesumably they don't realise that a 16GB Flash Drive costs $7.98 at Officeworks.

NSWWinPlaceF4
20181,381,093.10600,099.602,543,490.92
20171,457,759.70609,158.663,406,266.50

So a drop of ~$1 million!

But V'landys is boasting a 9% surge in something!

Have to say he's very creative.

Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: fours on 2018-Oct-15, 07:55 AM
jfc,

Are you excluding WA TABS turnover where you yourself have migrated too along with others given the perceived 1c advantage?

Suggest including this may alter things somewhat!

Fours
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: nemisis on 2018-Oct-15, 08:01 AM
I'm not sure who the racing journo is on the Sunday morning ABC breakfast show but he made a good point about the result of The Everest.

The placegetters  in Sydney's premier autumn sprint the TJ Smith Stakes worth $2.5mil were 1st Trapeze Artist, 2nd  Redzel, 3rd In Her Time and 4th was Le Romain.

Very similar result with the obvious differences being the track conditions and the size of the purse.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Bubbasmith on 2018-Oct-15, 08:28 AM

But V'landys is boasting a 9% surge in something!

Have to say he's very creative.

Hot pies eaten on track or umbrellas sold at front gate  :what: :what:
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: jfc on 2018-Oct-15, 08:37 AM
This is the effusive article in question.

I translate this as The Everest was so successful that we want another $10 million of public money.

Too many undesirables (at the track) are never enough.

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/randwick-s-10-million-warchest-to-make-the-everest-even-bigger-20181014-p509m4.html
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: PoisonPen7 on 2018-Oct-15, 09:29 AM
I translate this as The Everest was so successful that we want another $10 million of public money.


Correction #1

They already have the $10 million in a "war chest". It is not "public money". They want to improve "public facilities" not add to the prizemoney as your post infers in the absence of any other qualifying info.

“We wanted to engage the next generation and we have,” Racing NSW chief executive Peter V’landys said. “We have only just began. We have the Randwick development fund, which has more than $10 million in it and it is available to the club straight away to improve public facilities.

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/randwick-s-10-million-warchest-to-make-the-everest-even-bigger-20181014-p509m4.html

NSW   Win   Place   F4
2018   1,381,093.10   600,099.60   2,543,490.92   
2017   1,457,759.70   609,158.66   3,406,266.50


Correction #2

The pools published by TABCorp for the 2017 Everest we

Win $1,457,758.20
Place $609,155.66
Quinella $286,432.65
Exacta $57,704.44
Duet $26,626.45
Trifecta $991,714.90
First Four $2,706,266.50

The 2018 Everest was run a Heavy 9 track where pools are always down regardless of where the races are held. Also there is a trend of Tote pools falling as money flows toward corporates. You yourself have published information that backs this up in the past.

In the absence of corporate bookmaker info, the comparison of the 2017 NSW tote pools to the 2018 pools is misleading (in the extreme).

 :)
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: jfc on 2018-Oct-15, 10:02 AM
I included the Jackpots in both F4s. The totals are correct.

I'm aware of the heavy track issue.

My key point was the V'landys claimed +9% of something, but we are unlikely to ever learn what that something is.

And the Triads/unlicensed outfits would have been the biggest beneficiaries but that information remains elusive.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: jfc on 2018-Oct-15, 02:31 PM
Further to that $500,000 F4 Jackpot.

Tabcorp would have had far more turnover and real revenue had it instead had 5 x $100,000 Jackpots spread over earlier meetings.

Because retail punters only have a limit on the money they are prepared spend chasing a F4 Jackpot. Say $50. So had it been on 5 F4s they would have spent $250.

So that huge Jackpot was only put on to artificially inflate the Everest Turnover.

Tabcorp know that with a 22.5% Rake the new money will tend to ~4.44444444444444444444444444 times the Jackpot.

V'landys is on record as claiming if he gets new people to the racetrack they'll suddenly be compelled to become an owner.

Perhaps he's mellowed and now thinks that at least these undesirables will actually try a bet on the F4 providing it has an obscene Jackpot?

But the only published evidence contradicts that.


Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-15, 02:49 PM
You reckon I’m insane.....triads  :lol:
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-15, 04:24 PM

 
The only certainty here is that the punters are being taken on a ride.
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: wily ole dog on 2018-Oct-15, 04:39 PM
Punters don’t care. The race proved that. You’re wrong again
Title: 2018 The Everest - The Race
Post by: Peter Mair on 2018-Oct-15, 07:18 PM


No one is telling us this

No wonder the media are so beholden to the party line from Druitt Street.


Sydney’s commercial media outlets are among the biggest winners from Saturday’s Everest race meeting. In the weeks leading up to the race, three advertisers spent almost $900,000 on print, radio and television ads.

Marketing and media firm Ebiquity put the spend by betting agency TAB, the Australian Turf Club, and the Australian Jockey Club at $867,000, mostly in Sydney media, with much smaller spends in Brisbane and Melbourne, and smaller again in Adelaide and Perth.

The Sydney Morning Herald had almost daily ads, including four front and back page ads, in the two weeks leading up to the race. The Herald and The Daily Telegraph both carried wrap-arounds and lift-outs dedicated to detailed coverage of the race.