2018 The Everest - The Race - N.S.W Gallops - Racehorse TALK harm-plan

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2018 The Everest - The Race - N.S.W Gallops - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: 2018 The Everest - The Race  (Read 1878 times)

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Offline Jeunes

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« 2018-Oct-13, 07:28 AM Reply #25 »
The weather does not look that bad today but showers expected.

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Oct-13, 09:08 AM Reply #26 »
Well my halo shot at the getting the 10 in finishing order for the TAB' $10mill comp is this -

1 - Brave Smash - I've liked the prep, blinkers on   emthup
2 - Redzel - he'll kick I'm just not sure he can hold them off after the set back
3 - Vega Magic - shades on, didn't like him getting run down last start although 1400m
4 -Shoals
5 - Santa Ana Lane
6 - US Navy Flag
7 - Osborne Bulls - keeps improving
8 - Trapeze Artist - haven't liked the prep
9 - Viddora - Class?
10 - In Her Time

Do you have to turn over the ten million before you can withdraw?   emthup

I went

Order

No. Runner (Barrier)
10. Shoals (2)
2. Santa Ana Lane (9)
3. Le Romain (11)
5. Vega Magic (7)
1. Redzel (1)
8. U S Navy Flag (3)
11. Viddora (12)
6. Brave Smash (4)
4. Trapeze Artist (6)
9. In Her Time (8)
« Last Edit: 2018-Oct-13, 09:11 AM by Wenona »

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Oct-13, 10:07 AM Reply #27 »
The sun is out shining at the moment with a light breeze.

A few rain clouds around but don't be surprised if the rain stays away they give a track upgrade during the day.

Randwick posted as a Heavy 9 at 7.45 a.m. this morning.

I'm going to watch the early races before finalizing my bets on the latter races.

Offline Shogun Lodge

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« 2018-Oct-13, 12:50 PM Reply #28 »
Shoals the firmer.
Leaning toward the overseas fellow, after watching July cup run.
So strong.

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Oct-13, 03:22 PM Reply #29 »
VF140817 RW71310F * RACE NAME ID* [ RW71310F  2018. THE EVEREST,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1200 mtrs]. COMPRUN 10-12-2018. AT 06:55:39 RESULT  [    1   4   17    3   ~   12   2  ]  F4 $9,933.80.

Quote
  *  The Pencil and Paper Analysis  [   5   12  1   4  9   ]   If a roughie gets up it is not unusual that it is one of these.

VF140817 RW71310F * SIMUL PACE T6 [  2 ]  10 ]  9 ]  4 ]  1 ]  16 ] ] *Pace line Important * LOOK !! T6 CAN HAVE $F4 IN. VERY IMPORTANT IF TRK HEAVY !!*

VF140817 RW71310F * SIMUL PACE ALL[    2   10    9    4    1   16  17    6   11   12    5   18    3   15   14    8   13   ] *BPT4 [  17 OSBORN x6 ] *BMVRP [ 4 TRAPEZ x3 [  11 VIDDOR x3 ] REL/SPWM. ESP F  1000-1200 USEFUL IN DIST/SOFT(6&UP/DEAD/SLOW/SAND esp. A TOP4 Ln*

 
« Last Edit: 2018-Oct-13, 06:22 PM by pegasyber »

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Oct-14, 07:10 AM Reply #30 »


There is no room in racing for refreshing honesty

The trainer may be a champion but the everest race is just too-much-money gone mad.

Redzel surpassed three-time Melbourne Cup heroine Makybe Diva in stakes earnings as a result, pocketing the $6 million first prize purse from Australian racing's newest plaything.

"I can't believe that," Peter Snowden said when made aware of the fact. "I wouldn't rate him above any champion. He is a good horse in his own right. He did it tough today. He led all the way and did it from the front. Hats off to him. I'm so proud of him."


RacingNSW will be arranging counseling for participants to stay 'on message' when talking about the new mountain races.

Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2018-Oct-14, 07:55 AM Reply #31 »
After yesterday's race Sky Channel's Greg Radley came out with " In winning the first two Everests Redzel has done what Archer had done, he won the first two Melbourne Cups'. As  VRC chairman, Amanda Elliott, was quoted as saying " good luck to the ATC and The Everest, let's hope it is around in 158 years".

Radley's attempt to equate Redzel's wins to Archer's first two Cups is a bit over the top. Was he really putting The Everest on the same level as the Melbourne Cup after only two runnings ? Prizemoney does not make a race iconic, I recall when the Perth Cup was the first race in Australia worth $100,000, where is it now and who won the race ?

Redzel is a good horse, but I doubt its name will rattle off the tongue of racing historians in 158 years as Archer does today.
« Last Edit: 2018-Oct-14, 05:05 PM by Bubbasmith »

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Oct-14, 08:37 AM Reply #32 »
Redzel ended up paying over $7 after his poor Premiere run.

Redzel and Trapeze Artist dominated early betting but both drifted and the quinella paid over $30.

Some very disappointing efforts I thought. Not sure if the track had something to do with it.

Reminded me a bit of Capitalist. He had a poor run before he won the Slipper and drifted right out the gate.

Shame about all the spoilers of the race - principally from Victoria. They need to get over it.  The locals were very supportive as was the national press.

In the end they didn't make any difference. It was the rain that probably made a difference although it stayed away for most of the day.

The TAB has listed the first four final pool in NSW as over $2 million  :what:

Online jfc

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« 2018-Oct-14, 09:21 AM Reply #33 »

The TAB has listed the first four final pool in NSW as over $2 million  :what:
Seems like reality still can't seep through to you.

In its insanity Tabcorp stumped up $500,000 of money donated by losing F4 players as a jackpot.

48% of the new money ~$1,000,000 came from the Manx!

All of that Manx money came in after 16:14:44!

So in effect ~$100,000 of free money from Kickbacks was transferred to said Manx.

But anyone like you who likes to be kept in the dark probably thinks this scam is a great success.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Oct-14, 09:34 AM Reply #34 »
Seems like reality still can't seep through to you.

In its insanity Tabcorp stumped up $500,000 of money donated by losing F4 players as a jackpot.

48% of the new money ~$1,000,000 came from the Manx!

All of that Manx money came in after 16:14:44!

So in effect ~$100,000 of free money from Kickbacks was transferred to said Manx.

But anyone like you who likes to be kept in the dark probably thinks this scam is a great success.

I thought they made a mistake and as I've said before I don't believe in rebates.

So if TABCorp kicks in $500k, plus the rebate (from TABCorp's cut, not the governments) combined with a computer generated spread of bets covering all the combinations using the horse's price as a guide to it's chances, this equals $100,000 free money?

Online jfc

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« 2018-Oct-14, 09:43 AM Reply #35 »
I backed the Field proportionally.

Hence ~Zero Risk if done correctly.

Much easier to do this for the Manx who plonked $1,000,000 and received ~$100,000 gift from a ~10% Kickback.

I've revealed this a number of times before and can't believe you still need to have this explained.

Such calculations should be seconds nature to anyone trying to gamble responsibly.


Offline fours

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« 2018-Oct-14, 09:53 AM Reply #36 »
Gambling responsibly....,

The adds exhorting this make me laugh.......

jfcs efforts are more akin to investing than gambling whereas the average 'gambler' the adds are designed for have not got a clue what they are doing so can never be said to be gambling responsibly.

Fours

Online jfc

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« 2018-Oct-14, 10:08 AM Reply #37 »
My gambling style could more accurately be described as.

Bet only when you believe the Odds are in your favour. Stake in a manner consistent with the Kelly criterion.

No reason why any other gambler can't do the same.

If they did they would avoid regular Tote Pools and thus stop exporting money to the Manx.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Oct-14, 10:50 AM Reply #38 »
I backed the Field proportionally.

Hence ~Zero Risk if done correctly.

Much easier to do this for the Manx who plonked $1,000,000 and received ~$100,000 gift from a ~10% Kickback.

I've revealed this a number of times before and can't believe you still need to have this explained.

Such calculations should be seconds nature to anyone trying to gamble responsibly.

What you have said is exactly what I have said. Is it not?

Can you point out the difference?

Online jfc

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« 2018-Oct-14, 11:04 AM Reply #39 »

So if TABCorp kicks in $500k, plus the rebate (from TABCorp's cut, not the governments) combined with a computer generated spread of bets covering all the combinations using the horse's price as a guide to it's chances, this equals $100,000 free money?
This is full of errors.

The $500,000 is not Tabcorp's money. It's losing F4 punters'.

The government pays the Kickbacks.

It's ~$100,000 free money to just the Manx. Less for me.

The "?" looks like you are disagreeing with me.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Oct-14, 12:18 PM Reply #40 »


Much easier to do this for the Manx who plonked $1,000,000 and received ~$100,000 gift from a ~10% Kickback.


Now do you find that info out?

Online jfc

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« 2018-Oct-14, 12:22 PM Reply #41 »
I have information (and contacts) not available to all.

The Manx would have even more.

That's wrong.

That information can easily be made available to all.

Offline nemisis

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« 2018-Oct-14, 12:28 PM Reply #42 »
The time the money goes on is interesting jfc.

Do you have the means to see the pools changing or is that through info?

Online jfc

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« 2018-Oct-14, 12:38 PM Reply #43 »
Tabcorp pushes Pool updates to me.

I timestamp them.

The Manx money is invisible bar the total. Typically that appears after jump. Whether that is or isn't kosher is not for me to say but it's not a good look.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2018-Oct-14, 12:42 PM Reply #44 »
This is full of errors.

The $500,000 is not Tabcorp's money. It's losing F4 punters'.

The government pays the Kickbacks.

It's ~$100,000 free money to just the Manx. Less for me.

The "?" looks like you are disagreeing with me.

This question has been floating around for a while.

Does the government pay the kickbacks? Or does the rebate come from TABCorp's cut?

I found this in the forum archives

http://www.racehorsetalk.com.au/racing-talk/the-tab-pools-and-how-they-work/25/

but it doesn't answer the question.

Peter V'Landys submission to the Oz Competition Tribunal was similarly vague.

The main fees Racing NSW receives through the RDA it has with
TAB Limited are in the form of a product fee based on NSWT AS's wagering revenue and a
wagering incentive fee (WIF), which essentially equates to 25% of the profit of NSWTAB's
wagering business.


Given that the government made TABCorp's 2005 proposal for a national pool conditional upon an indemnity against loss of revenue it is hard to believe that the rebate comes from the NSW Government.

TABCorp would decide who gets the rebates, and the level of the rebate on the fly so that implies that they bear the cost.

Happy to be corrected   :biggrin:


Online jfc

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« 2018-Oct-14, 12:46 PM Reply #45 »
From memory by law the NSW government allocates something like $130 million (one way or another) in kickbacks.

Offline Gintara

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« 2018-Oct-14, 03:55 PM Reply #46 »
After yesterday's race Sky Channel's Greg Radley came out with " In winning the first two Everests Redzel has done what Archer had done, he the first two Melbourne Cups'. As  VRC chairman, Amanda Elliott, was quoted as saying " good luck to the ATC and The Everest, let's hope it is around in 158 years".

Radley's attempt to equate Redzel's wins to Archer's first two Cups is a bit over the top. Was he really putting The Everest on the same level as the Melbourne Cup after only two runnings ? Prizemoney does not make a race iconic, I recall when the Perth Cup was the first race in Australia worth $100,000, where is it now and who won the race ?

Redzel is a good horse, but I doubt its name will rattle off the tongue of racing historians in 158 years as Archer does today.

Surely it's not that hard to draw the comparison like Radley did? Only a nark would try and decry it and see it for anything other than a horse winning the first two runnings of a significant race.

Then again I'm surprised you've stood up for Archer, being from NSW after all  :p


Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2018-Oct-14, 04:59 PM Reply #47 »
Surely it's not that hard to draw the comparison like Radley did? Only a nark would try and decry it and see it for anything other than a horse winning the first two runnings of a significant race.

Then again I'm surprised you've stood up for Archer, being from NSW after all  :p

As Bill Clinton famously said " it's the race, not the horse, stupid"

Offline Gintara

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« 2018-Oct-14, 08:29 PM Reply #48 »
 ..... and again you miss the point in your charge to denigrate anything NSW  :whistle:

Offline Peter Mair

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« 2018-Oct-14, 10:06 PM Reply #49 »


No one does it better than RNSW itself -- bar RVL of course which is in self-destruct mode.


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