Author Topic: Country and Provincial NSW (Read 264924 times)

fours · « 2020-Apr-14, 11:12 AM **Reply #1100** »

Hmmm

Penza riding with renewed vigour but is that reserved for Saturdays....

15 needs a track upgrade to figure.

There is another one that held form for 4 or 5 starts last prep.....

Fours

wily ole dog · « 2020-Apr-14, 11:50 AM **Reply #1101** »

Quote from: fours on 2020-Apr-14, 10:22 AM

Wily ole dog,

??

Do the rounds of the ratings providers if you must and find the ones most accurate for todays conditions and stage of preparation for each horse.

Nice problem to have for you if the both end up in the first four. You know what to do as I have given examples in the past.

Fours

Don’t worry mate, I’ve been doing it with good success. I just need a bigger bank and a touch of luck

wily ole dog · « 2020-Apr-14, 11:59 AM **Reply #1102** »

Thanks PP
One was in fact Playard on his last run and the other was Dew Drop. #19 who ran well last prep and resumed in slashing style, coming from last and running the Best Overall Race Sectionals for the race.
He drops a kg, draws much better and races well 2nd up. Poor win ration but he is a get back staying type

Playard since a very good run at Hawkesbury has been luckless in 2 of its 4 runs since. Possibly should have won them both

The Waterhouse & Waugh runners look hardest to beat at a quick glance

fours · « 2020-Apr-14, 11:59 AM **Reply #1103** »

Wily,

My thread combining roughies and favs is about building a bank - early days yet though. The fav part keeps the strike rate up enabling a bgger % of the bank to be bet.

It wont help you if the picks show a loss though!

Fours

fours · « 2020-Apr-14, 12:34 PM **Reply #1104** »

Blacbooker,

Just got a late email from the TAB - I have two black bookers at Newcastle today including 1 in r7

Fours

wily ole dog · « 2020-Apr-14, 02:33 PM **Reply #1105** »

fours · « 2020-Apr-14, 02:36 PM **Reply #1106** »

wily,

We almost certainly have the same one.

I will nominate if it qualifies at the appropriate time on my thread.

Fours

PoisonPen7 · « 2020-Apr-14, 04:33 PM **Reply #1107** »

Damn. Pipped right on the line for a piece of the quaddie

fours · « 2020-Apr-14, 04:45 PM **Reply #1108** »

Hmmmm,

4 out of my 10 last picks have missed the start....

Fours

PoisonPen7 · « 2020-Apr-15, 06:44 AM **Reply #1109** »

Matt Dunn very rarely brings his unraced ones to Sydney for their debut.

Interested that he is running R1 #7 Our Flaming Moes at Kensington today. Won a trial at Rosehill coming home strong. By Sizzling, dam produced a Wellington Cup (NZ) winner and she is a Viscount half to Group 1 winner Neroli and G1 winner Benfica is also in the extended family. Bookies keeping it very safe as 3rd favourite so no value there.

PoisonPen7 · « 2020-Apr-18, 11:56 AM **Reply #1110** »

One at 125-1 in the first at Coonabarabran #5 - trial worth a look.

PoisonPen7 · « 2020-Apr-18, 12:05 PM **Reply #1111** »

Hope someone copped that tip

fours · « 2020-Apr-18, 12:37 PM **Reply #1112** »

PP7,

Well done

Fours

wily ole dog · « 2020-Apr-18, 01:17 PM **Reply #1113** »

Geez PP. well done mate. I looked at the trial but didn’t see anything to encourage me to bet

PoisonPen7 · « 2020-Apr-18, 08:39 PM **Reply #1114** »

Quote from: wily ole dog on 2020-Apr-18, 01:17 PM

Geez PP. well done mate. I looked at the trial but didn’t see anything to encourage me to bet

Thanks guys. Had one of my best days on the punt in many a year.

In the trial the horse missed the start hopelessly and she rode him hard to catch up then seemed to give him an easy time.

And notwithstanding this is a Coonabarabran maiden. It is probably the lowest rating race you can bet on in NSW.

I've taken the early $81 about #8 Clever Connection in Race 3 at Wagga tomorrow. Ran 3rd in a Class 1 at an Albury non-tabbie on a bog track.

Drops back to Maiden class but stronger field in the Showcase meeting - $81 seems overs to me given a lot of horses improve at their 2nd start. Favourite has had one start and ran last at The Valley.

Took the early $34 about Race 2 #4 Astrobleme. 2nd starter resuming. First run didn't think it was ridden right out in it's debut in an Open 2yo race. The difference between Open class 2yo and 2yo maidens vary enormously but sometimes can be many lengths. Horses that ran 2nd and 3rd in the Open 2yo performed well in the Black Opal preview. Just checked and into $21.

wily ole dog · « 2020-Apr-18, 09:47 PM **Reply #1115** »

Well,here we go champ. Your two are races 2 & 3.
My black book has come up with just business in the first race and Sumdeel in the 4th

That’s a big early quaddy between us

After it’s slashing run last start, Sumdeel gets on the big in the last at Wagga.

The other dundeel the danger pending the handling of the wet

PoisonPen7 · « 2020-Apr-19, 11:55 AM **Reply #1116** »

Race 1 I've got the #3 and #9 on top with #8 overs at $61

Race 2 I've got three on top, #4, #12 and #13 with the value bets on 4-13-6

Race 3 the barriers are a killer here. I've got #14 on top from 1,2,5 and 12 - value bets on 3, 8 and 12 but little confidence.

Race 4 agree that the run of Sumdeel was outstanding last start. Drawn out in the Murrumbidgee again but should be rattling home in the big field and the extra 200m is an obvious advantage. Going wider I rated 6,8,10,11,13 and 15 close to the top here - the maidens receive a big weight advantage in these C1/Maiden races and the lightly raced ones like Sumdeel should not be ruled out.

wily ole dog · « 2020-Apr-19, 02:09 PM **Reply #1117** »

I. Alive but it’s a very very skinny divvy

PoisonPen7 · « 2020-Apr-19, 02:24 PM **Reply #1118** »

I'm going like a busted arse.

Sumdeel and Blazing Zone need to get up in this race or I think I'll pull up stumps for the day.

Good luck in the final leg mate.

fours · « 2020-Apr-19, 02:27 PM **Reply #1119** »

Hmmmm,

"I don't get out of bed for less than 10g pools" could be changed to "I dont get out of bed until race 5"

For similar reasons.

Just saying.

Fours

PoisonPen7 · « 2020-Apr-19, 02:30 PM **Reply #1120** »

Quote from: fours on 2020-Apr-19, 02:27 PM

Hmmmm,

"I don't get out of bed for less than 10g pools" could be changed to "I dont get out of bed until race 5"

For similar reasons.

Just saying.

Fours

I specialize in Maidens - like to look for reasons to back lightly raced horses at big odds.

Got the triple figure winner yesterday and beaten by a short half head on a horse the same price at Rocky last week.

Thus the early races are my go. Might have a few "muck around" bets later in the day - running and daily doubles. Got a good one up at Ararat yesterday.

fours · « 2020-Apr-19, 02:55 PM **Reply #1121** »

PP7,

Many ways to skin a cat so good luck to you.

Starting later in the days helps with life style for me ---- especially when SA racing was on......

Fours

wily ole dog · « 2020-Apr-19, 03:27 PM **Reply #1122** »

oops, forget that

ratsack · « 2020-Apr-26, 05:25 PM **Reply #1123** »

A 2YO broke the 1000mt track record at Tamworth today , 2g The Bopper . He ran 55.88 , other races on the day maiden 57.05 and BM58 56.28
might be worth a follow

PoisonPen7 · « 2020-Apr-26, 07:22 PM **Reply #1124** »

Quote from: ratsack on 2020-Apr-26, 05:25 PM

A 2YO broke the 1000mt track record at Tamworth today , 2g The Bopper . He ran 55.88 , other races on the day maiden 57.05 and BM58 56.28
might be worth a follow

Eased up by Sammy on the line too. She recovered him into a good position too after an average start without overstating it.

Races in the Orange/Maltese Cross colours of Samantha Miss.

Same sire as Nature Strip Nicconi. He's now $38,500.

I was on Zorro Cat and was confident that the city form would hold up and it would have if ZC didn't run into The Bopper.

Definitely goes in the blackbook rat.